Beijing, 5 May (ZXS) -- Taiwan's official announced on 23 May that the amount of export orders in the first four months of this year decreased by 22.20 percent compared with the same period last year, the largest decrease since 6. Foreign trade continues to lose temperature, and the island's financial and economic circles hope that the Pfeiffer 2010,4 yuan (New Taiwan dollar, the same below) policy and other stimulus measures implemented by the Taiwan authorities since April can maintain the enthusiasm of private consumption and avoid "cold outside and cold inside" aggravating the economic decline.
Regarding the negative growth of export orders for eight consecutive months, Huang Yuling, director of the Statistics Department of the "Ministry of Economic Affairs" of the Taiwan authorities, explained that the main reasons are the continued weakness of global demand, the downstream of the industrial chain is still adjusting inventory, etc., and multiple unfavorable factors are increasing downside risks. She estimated that Taiwan's export orders would decline in May, down 5.23% to 3.26% from the same period last year.
Taiwan's economy is highly dependent on export-driven, especially the structure dominated by upstream products in the global industrial chain, once it encounters a contraction in downstream orders, it is bound to be injured with the decline of the external market. Based on the official data recently released by Taiwan's "Ministry of Economic Affairs" and "General Accounting Office", the negative growth of Taiwan's exports in the first half of this year has become a foregone conclusion, and whether the "external cold" situation can be reversed in the fourth quarter as expected by all walks of life is still full of challenges.
The sluggish momentum of export sales has also made Taiwan's private investment shrink. During the pandemic, the boom of overinvestment in Taiwan's electronics industry driven by the surge in global demand for technology products is a thing of the past. Weng Weijie, a well-known securities and futures analyst in Taiwan, pointed out in a recent interview with the media that the recession of Taiwan's negative economic growth of 3.02% in the first quarter of this year was mainly due to sluggish exports, and the industry, especially semiconductor-based electronic supply chain enterprises, faced huge operating pressure, and capital expenditure turned cautious. In April, Taiwan's Institute of Economic Research quoted official statistics that "the total amount of new private investment cases of more than 4 million yuan in 2023 is expected to decrease by 5% compared with the previous year", and based on this, it is estimated that this year's private investment will be negative growth of 35.0%, a sharp decrease of 32.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.
Maintaining the current relatively warm private consumption and maintaining "cold outside and warm inside" are the main supports for maintaining Taiwan's economic growth in 2023. Stimulated by the further relaxation of control measures related to the new crown epidemic and Pfeiffer's 6000,6 yuan policy, private consumption in the first quarter increased by 6.5% compared with the same period last year, giving the island's financial and economic circles a lot of confidence. The Taiwan Economic Institute also recently expected the annual growth rate of private consumption to be 95.<>%.
Increasing the proportion of domestic demand is the inevitable path for the Taiwan authorities to alleviate the impact of this year's export recession, and the official claim is that "guaranteeing the second" (ensuring that the growth rate is not less than 2%) is the goal of efforts. At present, it seems that the Taiwan authorities' "Baoer" mainly hopes for the stimulus effect of 6000,<> yuan in general money.
However, on the one hand, on the basis of the 3% increase in Taiwan's consumer price index last year (a new high in nearly 14 years), the growth rate of the index of 4.2% in April this year was the same as that in March, which has exceeded the 35% inflation warning line for 3 consecutive months, and the annual growth rate of 21 important civilian resources has rushed to 2.17%. On the other hand, Taiwan's real gross salary in the first quarter turned negative for the first time in seven years, and the annual growth rate of the rent price index reached a new high in 7 years.
It can be said that the rising prices and cost of living pressure felt by the people are still severe, and the short-term stimulus measures still have a limited driving effect on Taiwan's private consumption. Therefore, Professor Huang Yaohui of the Department of Finance and Taxation of Taipei University of Commerce pointed out pessimistically in his column that stimulus measures are still short-term emergencies, and whether Taiwan can maintain an economic growth rate of 1.5% this year is a great challenge. (End)