Kiev, Moscow, by virtue of its geographical location, is strategically important to both sides, with Russians calling it a fallen fortress, and Ukrainians fearing that it will open the way for Russians to advance into other cities in the Donetsk region, which is 53% under their control.
This is because the city is located at the crossroads of two international roads connecting it to the rest of Donetsk, especially the M03 road, which leads to the cities of Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the largest and most important cities in the Ukrainian-controlled part of the province that Russia annexed in September last year.
In Ukraine, the developments of the battles in Bakhamut left a state of great confusion that cannot be ignored, expressed by contradictory statements by a number of officials, then waves of denial and clarification of some of them, before everyone committed to firm terms that denied the fall of the city to the Russians, and confirmed that Ukrainian forces continue to perform their defensive tasks there.
Clashes in Bachmut left massive destruction in the city (Reuters)
Encirclement of "My Operations"
Ukrainian denial of the fall of Bakhamout is based on a series of announcements that preceded him last week about Kiev forces regaining control of more than 20 square kilometers in the city area, while retaining important heights overlooking it and defensive positions in its southwestern part.
For his part, the commander of the Ukrainian ground forces, Colonel Oleksandr Serkyi, believes that the city is witnessing an "operational cordon" from the northwestern, western and southwestern wings, while Ukrainian army spokesman Serhiy Sharifati confirms that "the Russians will not enjoy peace inside the city, and its encirclement paves the way for counter-operations in it."
For some observers, the current outcome of the Battle of Bachmut is not even right to treat as a turning point, and it is too early to talk about victory or loss.
In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Ivan Stoback, a member of the British Institute for War Studies and a military expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, says, "Inside the city it was slowly moving to the control of the Russians, at a cost of at least 70,<> troops, and it was also clear that the Wagner Military Group was close to collapse."
"Recently, Wagner and the Russian Defense Ministry sent huge numbers of troops to Pakhmut, even from their own troops far away in Belarus, because they wanted to declare a victory that would be marketed in favor of the Kremlin inside Russia," he said.
In Stupak's words: "How can Russia describe the fall of Bachmut as a victory? It didn't bring down a big city, and it could only reach the center of Bachmut after 9 months of fighting, while Ukraine was – and still is – treating the city as the best place to kill the largest number of Russian soldiers, and that's what happens."
Chairman of Russia's Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin makes a statement in Bachmut (Reuters)
Slow down "counter-processes"
In contrast, other Ukrainian estimates suggest that the fall of Pakhmut, regardless of Ukrainian denials, will put Kiev in front of new calculations and may affect the course of the war and plans for "counter-operations."
For his part, military analyst Yuri Fedorov told Al Jazeera Net that "the progress of the Russians in Bakhmut gives them the possibility of targeting the cities of Donetsk with more types and cheaper weapons, and this will be a close indication of the reality of the situation in the city."
"Opening hot fronts in the Donetsk region would not be in our interest, of course, but it could change the priorities and plans for those counter-operations that we intend to carry out, or at least slow them down."
Fedorov believes that "the Kremlin's declaration of victory in Pakhmut should not be mocked, even if it is false or costly, as this paves the way for the Russian people to mobilize and escalate measures, and they are submissive and believe the propaganda machine in Russia."
After a long wait
In Russia, the declaration of control of Pakhmut was a qualitative event in more than one direction, as from a military point of view, control of the strategic city would enable the Russian army to enter the roads leading to Slaviansk and Kramatorsk, and thus gain significant field power cards in the region.
Symbolically, the coincidence of the entry of Russian troops into Pakhmut with exactly a year after Mariupol is Russia's first major victory this year, and despite the importance of controlling the Solidar region earlier this year, the difference is that the latter was relatively easily captured, unlike in Bachmut.
The event in Bachmut also stirred up the "stagnant waters" in terms of talk of achieving a balanced achievement in the conduct of military operations, which for some time ranged between hit-and-run, according to Russian observers.
Russian analysts said the capture of Pakhmut gave a strong political, military and moral impetus at the same time to complete the objectives of the Russian military operation to complete the capture of Donbass.
Military expert Viktor Litovkin believes that raising the Russian flag in Bakhamout was a "moral blow" to Ukrainian forces, weakening the bet on the ability of Western weapons to stop Russian military advances, after Soviet weapons in Ukraine's possession were almost completely destroyed during the battles.
Litovkin predicted – in his interview with Al Jazeera Net – that the new developments will encourage the Russian army and Wagner forces to move forward in removing and removing Ukrainian forces from other areas near the city, and pushing the front lines back so that Ukrainian forces cannot bomb Russian forces and areas they now control.
Logistic Center
Military expert Anatoly Matvichuk points out that Pakhmut was an important defensive and logistical center for Ukrainian forces, which allowed them to effectively supply their combat units in Donbass with ammunition, medicines and personnel transport, but the loss of the city also made them lose the ability to carry out large-scale offensive operations.
He pointed out that the Ukrainian forces made a tactical mistake - later inflicting heavy losses - when they exaggerated the reserve forces, and continuously transferred to the city, including elite formations, which was supposed to give them a numerical advantage, but they failed to maintain the city, and were crushed in the fiercest battles, as he described.
Matvichuk adds that this does not mean that what happened will not motivate Ukrainian forces to rush to start the counteroffensive that they have been talking about for months, because they have become in an awkward position in front of the Ukrainian public as a result of recent developments.
He considered that what has been achieved is an achievement for the forces of Wagner and its commander personally, after talking about differences with the center due to poor armament, and his previous decision to withdraw his forces from the city after Victory Day, adding that things will change radically now in the file of interest in arming the group and its future role, after the "resounding victory in Bachmut", as he put it.