After ten months of bloody clashes between the Ukrainian army and the militiamen of the Wagner group, Bakhmout is once again at the heart of a communication battle between Moscow and Kiev. Ukraine admitted on Sunday (May 21st) that it now controls only "an insignificant part" of the city but continues to advance on the flanks.

"Although we now control only an insignificant part of Bakhmut, the importance of his defense remains relevant ... We continue to advance on the flanks in the suburbs of Bakhmut," Ukrainian ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrsky said on Telegram.

The old, the boss of the group of Russian mercenaries had claimed the capture of the martyred city "in its entirety" in a video broadcast on his social networks. Yevgeny Prigozhin appears surrounded by hooded soldiers carrying flags of the Russian Federation and its militia.

In open conflict with the Russian military hierarchy, Yevgeny Prigozhin took the opportunity to criticize the Ministry of Defence once again. "The operation to take Bakhmut lasted 224 days. (...) There was only Wagner here."

The latter reaffirmed, Sunday, to have conquered the city "to the last centimeter" in its "legal borders". "There is not a single Ukrainian soldier in Bakhmut," he said.

This is not the first time that the private militia claims to have captured the martyred city, but there are several indications that this could be a significant turning point. Thus, for the first time, President Vladimir Putin congratulated the mercenary group and the Russian military, according to a Kremlin statement.

Vladimir Putin openly congratulates Wagner in his announcement on the Russian victory at Bakhmut, such recognition of the mercenaries is a first. It promises to decorate the world. https://t.co/0rfZM1Rt3Z

— Paul Gogo (@Paugog) May 21, 2023

"Thanks to the offensive actions of Wagner's assault units, with the support of the artillery and aviation of Army Group 'South', the liberation of Artyomosvk [the Soviet name of Bakhmut, editor's note] has been completed," also confirmed the Russian Ministry of Defense, which in the past has rather qualified the triumphant statements of Wagner's boss.

"The Russians needed to announce a victory for the anniversary of the capture of Mariupol" a year ago, said General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN, who evokes "contradictory" information.

"There is nothing left" in Bakhmut

If Ukraine has not officially recognized the fall of the city of Donbass, the authorities admit a "critical" situation and a tactical withdrawal of its troops to the periphery.

Asked Sunday about Bakhmut's fate at the G7 summit in Japan, President Volodymyr Zelensky, visibly troubled, seemed to implicitly acknowledge the fall of the fortress city by downplaying the significance of a possible Russian success. "You have to understand that there is nothing" there. "Today, Bakhmut is only in our hearts," he said.

Ambiguous statements immediately clarified by the Ukrainian presidency. "The president denied the capture of Bakhmut," spokesman Sergei Nykyforov said.

In the aftermath, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense assured to have "partially encircled" the city thanks to its territorial gains on the flanks, as a way to definitively close this moment of floating in Kiev's communication.

"Bakhmout is not occupied by Russia today," Volodymyr Zelensky then said without explaining his remarks, assuring at a press conference since Hiroshima, not being able to share "the tactical opinions" of his staff.

"There are no misunderstandings. I fully understand what is happening in Bakhmut. And we all clearly understand why all this is happening," he said, adding a little more to the confusion.

A peaceful town of 70,000 inhabitants before the war, Bakhmut is now a field of ruins. Of relative strategic value, according to many military experts, the city has nevertheless become the epicenter of the fighting in Ukraine since last August.

After the capture earlier this year of the neighboring town of Soledar, Russia made it its number one military objective, with the ambition of opening the way to other cities in the Donbass.

After Bakhmut, the Russians "could go further. They could go to Kramatorsk, they could go to Sloviansk, the way would be clear" for them "to other cities in Ukraine," warned Volodymyr Zelensky in an interview with the American channel CNN broadcast in March.

Ukrainian opportunism

But for Moscow, the stakes are above all political. It is about finally being able to claim victory after a series of humiliating defeats, regardless of the cost in human lives.

On the front line of the fighting, Wagner's mercenaries, often ill-equipped and poorly trained, were sent by the thousands to certain death to bend the Ukrainian defense, which would eventually exhaust itself in the face of the incessant waves of Russian assault.

"Bakhmout will not be taken tomorrow, because there is strong resistance, shelling, the meat grinder is in action," Prigozhin said in February, referring to heavy battlefield casualties.

In early May, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby estimated that 100,000 Russian troops had been killed or wounded since December 2022, mostly in Bakhmut.

>> Read also: The battle of Bakhmut, symbolic or strategic issue?

Even though most of the city has been in Russian hands for several months, Ukraine has managed in recent days to regain the initiative, making a two-kilometer breakthrough in the front line. A strategy designed to fix the Russian forces to free themselves from the margins of maneuver in other areas conducive to counter-offensives.

By advancing on the flanks, as it claims today, the Ukrainian army offers itself an opportunity to encircle Wagner's militiamen. "In the center, Wagner took Bakhmut, while the Russian army retreated on the flanks. The Ukrainians have seized an opportunity here. War is also about adapting to the circumstances of the moment," said General Dominique Trinquand.

If these last hours have undoubtedly marked a major step in the course of the clashes in the Donbass, the epilogue of the battle of Bakhmut is not yet quite written.

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