• 28-M The PP already has to snatch six regional governments from the PSOE with or without Vox
  • Barometer Feijóo rises in front of Sánchez and Sumar is placed above Vox, according to the CIS of Tezanos

The 28-M electoral campaign reaches its equator. And it does so with the spotlight illuminating even more to Valencia, fiefdom on everyone's lips. Pedro Sánchez, this Saturday, and Alberto Núñez Feijóo on Sunday, star in two acts in this city. A community that both PSOE and PP have raised as a thermometer to settle winners and losers. Whoever adds up to govern will have many ballots to hang the winner's poster and take carrerilla for the coming months. Everyone looks at Valencia. "Many expectations have been set, perhaps too many," people agree after the campaigns of both parties.

Valencia is one of the communities where everything is open. The struggle between blocs is intense and the last week of the campaign can tip the balance depending on, for example, who drags more undecided. But there is something tangible that will be seen in 48 hours: the power of convening, the capacity to mobilize. The PSOE has finally chosen for its act the City of Arts and Sciences. The PP has preferred the bullring. A priori, the popular opt for a more powerful image. "The PSOE has doubted where to do it because of its ability to convene," they say from the PP. The Socialists wield climatological reasons to opt for a scenario that, although with less capacity, ensures the act even if it rains.

The question is, why is Valencia so important? Let's start from a widespread consensus in the parties: "It is the symbol of 28-M". PSOE and PP will be the two most voted parties. "It's not a vote issue, the result for both of us will be good. They are the expectations", summarize within the popular campaign. The matter is summarized as follows: if the PP wins and governs, they will encourage a change in the political cycle in Spain; if the balance falls on the side of the PSOE, the message will be that Sánchez endures, that progressive governments endure. Valencia "is a key to power".

Pedro Sánchez, in Zaragoza.J. CebolladaEFE

Let's bring the magnifying glass closer to each game, to understand the weight of expectation. It could be that the PP won in municipal votes but does not govern in Valencia. In that hypothesis, there would be the feeling of decaffeinated victory, which will get worse if it is not possible to snatch fiefdoms like Aragon from the PSOE. Another hypothesis that is valued: that the PP does not win the municipal elections and the Socialists have more votes. Despite this, if the popular govern Valencia, there would be a sense of victory. But if they do not conquer this community, within the PP there could be the feeling that 28-M was raised as a plebiscite against Sánchez, the foundations to "repeal sanchismo", and they could not. Looking towards Feijóo's leadership. As a counterweight, Ayuso would be strengthened, whose victory is unappealable.

Let's go to the other side. Sánchez, with his prominence, monopolizing ads, contributes to the perception that these elections are read as a first round. It arrives at the square of Ximo Puig, the baron related to the leader of the PSOE of more weight. He leads a progressive three-party government. Maintaining power would strengthen the argument that the president resists and progressive governments have support. That his government action is supported. Now, if the Socialists lose Valencia, they are surpassed in Andalusia at the municipal level and knowing that Madrid is popular territory, Sánchez would have a smaller share of power than in 2019 and trusting everything to Catalonia, where Colau and Trías are not making it easy.

Precisely Barcelona is another enclave that contains great symbolism, mainly for the Government. It wants to make electorally profitable the management with the independentistas in recent years, it was even encouraged that the so-called 'operation dialogue' will be used as an "electoral asset" in all territories by the candidates. Sanchez and the PSOE are also at stake here. First, see if they are capable of winning and governing. Second, if this is not the case, see who governs, and if they are the independentists, what formation. Whether it is ERC or Junts does not have the same consequences, neither in Barcelona nor in Madrid. Because given the entente built this legislature, the PSOE needs a strong ERC looking at the generals.

"The PSOE is in a position right now to revalidate all the governments of communities in which it is in charge or participates, that is what the figures say, and we also advance in cities that we do not govern such as Zaragoza, Malaga or Barcelona," they expose from Ferraz. "The dispute for the popular vote throughout Spain of the municipal ones is very tight, but we have good vibrations to continue being the first political force in the country at the municipal level."

Those who are in the bowels of the campaigns agree that the guts of the CIS do not end up reflecting a "wave of change", there is no such breeding ground of 2011 when the PP won the municipal elections and catapulted Mariano Rajoy to La Moncloa. But everything will depend on the glass with which you look at the night of 28-M, from key places such as Valencia, Barcelona or Andalusia. Because Sánchez and Feijóo also play it.

  • Autonomous Elections
  • Municipal Elections
  • Pedro Sanchez
  • Alberto Núñez Feijóo

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