Despite the relative stability in Iraq. What are the implications of Washington's extension of the state of emergency in Iraq?

Baghdad - US President Joe Biden signed a decree last Tuesday extending the national emergency related to the situation in Iraq, and a statement published by the White House website by the president read, "There are still obstacles to the orderly reconstruction in Iraq, and the restoration and maintenance of security and peace, along with other obstacles that hinder the development of political, administrative and economic institutions in the country."

The statement also stated that these obstacles continue to pose an "extraordinary" threat to the national security and foreign policy of Iraq and the United States, and accordingly "the Biden administration has determined that it is necessary to continue the national emergency declared by Executive Order 13303 with respect to the stability of Iraq."

Many questions arise about the meaning of the decision, its implications and the extent of its impact on the Iraqi political and security situation, and what the position of the parliament and the Baghdad government on it, especially after the security crises that the country had ended in light of relative political stability since the formation of the government of the current Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani.

What does the resolution mean?

Muhannad al-Janabi, a professor of political science at Cihan University, said that understanding the state of emergency decree requires referring to an old US law enacted in 1977, the Economic and International Emergency Powers Act, which empowers the US president to regulate international trade after declaring a state of emergency.

It means that the US president has the right to issue orders related to international trade, and everything related to any threat to US national security, which was based on former President George W. Bush, who issued on May 22 / May - after the invasion of Iraq - an order No. 13303 for the declaration of a national emergency, according to what Janabi confirms to Al Jazeera Net.

What is the Iraqi position?

Shaalan al-Karim, a member of the foreign relations committee in parliament, said that the extension of the US state of emergency in Iraq over the past years was justified by virtue of the unstable security situation and the control of ISIS over large areas of the country, as well as the presence of militias.

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Karim says, "The Iraqi situation is now much better, which means that the extension of the state of emergency sends messages of insecurity, especially as Washington seeks to strengthen the relationship with Baghdad in investment and strategic projects."

MP Majid Shankali – who hails from the tense security area of Sinjar in Nineveh province administratively – may not agree much with Karim, as he believes that the situation is still fragile, noting that "once weapons are confined to the hands of the state and the source of the decision and discourse is unified, the United States will not be able at the time to issue any similar decision to extend the state of emergency in Iraq, there are still influential forces in the Iraqi decision, which are part of the authority, but at the same time they cause a fragile situation for the state."

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Shankali continued that any political or natural dispute can develop into an armed conflict, as happened in the area of Albu Aitha (south of Baghdad) last week between armed factions and security forces, according to him.

"Until this moment, we have not started discussing controversial issues between political blocs, such as not starting to discuss the return of displaced people to some areas such as Jurf al-Sakhar, as well as the issue of the general amnesty law and its problems," he said. "I think that differences exist, but everyone is now busy with the budget, although the Sudanese are serious about developing a plan to solve all the problems in a way that requires political concessions and other parties to give up their interests."

Despite the attempt of the correspondent of Al Jazeera Net to communicate with the spokesman for the government spokesman for Awadi to inquire about the nature of the government's position on the extension of the US state of emergency, a text message to the spokesman made it clear that he does not have data on this subject.

Munqith Dagher: The announcement of the emergency extension confirms a previous message that Washington looks at the actions of the Iraqi government, not its words (Reuters)

What are political messages?

Returning to Al-Karim, he is surprised by the extension of the US state of emergency, especially since the Iraqi government and politicians participating in the government had sent messages to Washington stating that they would like to build good relations with it, and that among them were those politicians who were contrary to the American orientation, indicating the need for Washington to be clearer in the goals for which the extension came, as he put it.

On the other hand, Munqith Dagher, director of the Middle East at Gallup, points out that this announcement has been extended annually since 2003, and that it aims to give the US president certain powers outside US law, allowing him to act in the way he deems appropriate against threats to American interests.

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Dagher continues that the law allows the US president to punish Iraqi political figures and entities, as happened with some figures in previous years, and that the announcement of the extension of the state of emergency for Iraq in the manner that took place recently came to confirm a previous American message that Washington will look at the actions of the current Iraqi government not its words, which was confirmed by the US ambassador in Baghdad Alina Romanowski recently, according to Dagher.

Muhannad Al-Janabi confirms: The emergency decree authorized Washington to pressure the Iraqi Central Bank to abide by the international system (Al-Jazeera)

What are the effects of the emergency?

Returning to the professor of political science at Cihan University, he believes that the impact of extending the state of emergency is related to the protection of Baghdad's oil funds and exports after the establishment of the Development Fund for Iraq after the invasion, and the protection of Iraqi funds from international creditors of Iraqi governments that preceded the invasion.

The matter is not limited to that, as although the extension of the emergency does not authorize the US president to intervene militarily - according to Janabi - its economic repercussions are present in terms of the sanctions that the law can impose or provide, indicating that among what the law can make available to the US government is what the US Federal Reserve took towards the Central Bank of Iraq and obligated it to adopt the system of international financial transfers last November.

On a related level, security expert and strategist Sarmad al-Bayati confirms that the extension of the state of emergency is a normal situation, and does not pose any danger to the country in terms of security and military, while stressing the importance of the law in protecting Iraqi financial assets, indicating – in his speech to Al Jazeera Net – that the presence of some US forces in Iraq is another reason to renew the state of emergency, according to him.