Only Yolanda Díaz survives her own 'tides' and in her city the PP will finally govern

• Galicia The mayor of Ourense, cornered by his own words: "If you put the stick, put it big"
• Politics Sánchez, pre-campaign in Galicia against Feijóo: "You have won the Galicians with his departure, but we have lost the rest"

The regional elections of 2012 opened a new stage in Galicia that, shortly after, would be extrapolated to the rest of Spain through Podemos. Alternativa Galega de Esquerdas (AGE), a coalition born just a month and a half before the date with the polls, exceeded all expectations, broke into Parliament with nine seats and became the third force. Then it would be the turn of the tides, which did the same at the municipal level assuming the governments of Santiago, A Coruña and Ferrol and En Marea at the state level by achieving six of the 23 deputies in contention and becoming second force in the generals. The new policy had arrived to revolutionize the Galician political landscape, but its cycle has lasted barely a decade. Eleven years later, the most that rupturism aspires to is to scratch councilors in urban Galicia and, perhaps, be key to government in cities such as Ferrol and A Coruña, where four years ago they supported the investiture of the socialists Ángel Mato and Inés Rey.

This downward context for the political space of the rupturist left contrasts with the current projection of one of the key figures in its history, Yolanda Díaz. Councillor in Ferrol (2003-12) and deputy mayor for a brief period (07-08), the then national coordinator of Esquerda Unida was, together with the historic nationalist leader Xosé Manuel Beiras, a great promoter of AGE and in 2015 she already made the leap to national politics as a deputy of En Marea. Faced with the tendency to lose support of that Galician Syriza that he promoted, his figure did not stop gaining influence. As second vice president of the Government and leader of Sumar, she is the last stronghold of the tides.

It is difficult, therefore, not to look towards it before the new elections, which in Galicia will only be municipal. And his visit in the campaign is expected as May water among his own, but also among his detractors, who hope that he will position himself with some of the forces heirs of the former tides, today fragmented. She is expected on Thursday and everything indicates that she will know how to maintain that difficult balance at the cost of avoiding the city that saw the birth of her political career, Ferrol.

It will be easy to pass through Santiago de Compostela, with Compostela Aberta, the only tide that has not fragmented. She governed with Martiño Noriega between 2015 and 2019, then reduced her support by half and, according to polls, is far from returning to government, but remains united, led by María Rozas and with one of the great supporters of the Minister of Labor in her candidacy, Marta Lois.

Headquarters of Podemos in Ferrol, with the poster of its candidate, Aitor Cordeiro.ROSA GONZÁLEZ

In this difficult puzzle to compose in which the tides have become, the balance is complicated in A Coruña, his second stop. It is another of the squares that in 2015 became a symbol of the strength of the tides, with the Atlantic Tide of Xulio Ferreiro in the Mayor's Office and, eight years later, it is divided and presents two lists, Por Coruña and Marea Atlántica.

Díaz will support Por Coruña there, led by the former senator of En Marea José Manuel Sande and that, in front of the current state political panorama, brings together Podemos and IU, in addition to having the advantage that the list is closed by Yolanda Díaz's father, Suso Díaz. However, the same Martiño Noriega who in Santiago is still in Compostela Aberta and will receive his visit, here endorses the rival candidacy, Marea Atlántica, led by Xan Xove and which the vice president will avoid.

And, to continue composing the puzzle, a third place, Ferrol, is key. Despite being his city, he will not campaign against the impossible balance. The rupturism concurs fragmented: Ferrol En Común, led by former mayor Jorge Suárez, and Podemos, headed by Aitor Cordeiro, stage the end of the unity that once symbolized the tides. Here, the division between Podemos and IU is experienced, since the latter party is still in the tide. Curiously, the three former mayors of that movement, Martiño Noriega, Xulio Ferreiro and Jorge Suárez do remain united, although in this campaign they have avoided showing that harmony. It was planned to see them together in an act of support for the candidacy of A Coruña that Yolanda Díaz leaves aside, but finally the ferrolano did not attend.

If the regional elections of 2020, the last held in the community, served as a barometer, this division would take its toll on rupturism. They appeared divided, reduced support from 20% of the 2016 vote to less than 5% and disappeared from Parliament. The municipal candidacies, in Galicia, usually have a different behavior, but the results of three years ago as a detector of trends and the post-28-M political map.

Only in three cities did they exceed that 5% needed to obtain representation: Ferrol (7.76%), Vigo (6.08%) and A Coruña (6.73%), leaving Santiago (4.92%) and the rest of cities below. It was the end of an era that Yolanda Díaz herself called the Galician Syriza, in allusion to the Greek left-wing coalition. The macro-survey of the CIS pre-campaign, however, would give the territorial confluences of Podemos (definition that does not fit exactly with the Galician panorama) 7.9%.

Nothing is written and all these tides maintain the hope of improving their position, despite the predictions of the polls. If its decline is confirmed, it remains to be determined who will end up in that fishing ground of votes that in the last decade occupied the tides. Logic would say that they would be new endorsements for PSOE and BNG, returning to that usual tripartite panorama of Galicia that Yolanda Díaz sought to overthrow in the AGE project that also joined her path with that of Pablo Iglesias, then her advisor, two years before founding Podemos.

Tides aside, the pre-election survey of the CIS, and all the polls published so far, give the victory to the PSOE and leave the main cities, except Ourense, in the hands of the left. It would be to reissue the municipal panorama of four years ago, although with a rise in support of the PP, which would gain urban power in elections that are also a first test for Alberto Núñez Feijóo. He does not campaign as Galician president, he is already a state leader.

Despite the rise, it would not be able to impose itself on the left-wing pacts, especially because the irruption in the political landscape of Ciudadanos or Vox is not foreseen, the only possible allies in the face of coalition governments that completely eclipses a strong PP in Galicia since the Manuel Fraga era and, especially, with the clear leadership of Feijóo. Those of Santiago Abascal do not have any elected position in Galicia and, although they have redoubled their efforts and present a list in 39 municipalities -28 more than in 2019-, they are not expected to enter any Corporation. Ciudadanos achieved 33 councilors in the community four years ago, but its presence and support has continued to decline and could lose all the minutes.

The same scenario would also remain in the councils, institutions that in Galicia gain weight due to territorial dispersion and the large number of rural and small municipalities. Currently, the PSOE presides over three: Pontevedra, Lugo and A Coruña, all with the support of the BNG, and only the PP preserves its fiefdom of Ourense, with a controversial Manuel Baltar as president. A fine for driving at 215 km / h through Zamora with the official car on a Sunday without an official agenda has clouded the campaign and its relations with the party at the Galician level, but nothing suggests that it will cost the elections to his party in its historical domain.

Only in Ferrol all the polls give the clear victory and the Mayor's Office to the popular. Today, he does not govern any of the seven large cities and, although four years ago he supported the investiture of Gonzalo Jácome (Ourensana Democracy, DO) in Ourense, during the mandate he has even taken away that support. They have socialist mayors Vigo, Lugo, A Coruña, Santiago and Ferrol – the only one that would lose – and the BNG leads a bipartite with the PSOE in Pontevedra.

Since the beginning of democracy, Ferrol has never repeated mayor more than four years and everything indicates that this electoral appointment will not break the trend. The government of Ángel Mato (PSOE) the last four years, with the support of BNG and Ferrol in Common for the investiture, would give way to the absolute majority of the PP of José Manuel Rey Varela, former counselor of the Xunta with Feijóo. It would mean returning to a Mayor's Office that he already occupied in 2011-2015 without breaking with that usual behavior of the people of Ferrol to punish the one who governs. And all at the cost of the loss of minutes of the PSOE and the BNG.

The other side of the coin of that punishment to the left of Ferrol is lived in Vigo, which Abel Caballero governs with an absolute majority in the last four mandates. Although some polls predict a slight decline this May, no one disputes the victory. The PP, which has entrusted the difficult place to the delegate of the Xunta, Marta Fernández-Tapias, has far to raise its four current councilors and Marea could even go from two to one. Only the BNG could slightly increase support.

In A Coruña, the PP lost the mayor's office the last two terms despite being the most voted force and the polls predict that Miguel Lorenzo will grow again, but also the BNG, which would give its support to the PSOE for a bipartite. The popular would not have possible partners for a pact to stay Citizens outside the Corporation, therefore, the socialist Inés Rey would continue to govern.

Also in Lugo the PP could grow, but not enough to unseat a PSOE-BNG pact like the one given by the Mayor's Office to the socialist Lara Méndez in 2019. The same scenario would give Santiago, where it is almost impossible to snatch the socialist Xosé Antonio Sánchez Bugallo the baton of command that he raises alone after abstaining and voting blank Compostela Aberta and BNG.

The rise of the BNG could tip the balance to enter some more left-wing coalition government and what seems clear is that it will allow him to keep the Mayor's Office of Pontevedra, where Miguel Anxo Fernández Lores governs since 1999, currently supported by the PSOE. Although the PP is redoubling efforts to elevate its candidate, Rafa Domínguez, and an aggressive campaign of the PSOE to be the most voted force, no changes are foreseen at the head of the municipality or in the opposition, except for a foreseeable disappearance of Citizens.

It is complicated to predict the result of Ourense after the convulsive campaign, marked by audios published by La Región and La Voz de Galicia that have cornered Pérez Jácome, investigated by the Prosecutor's Office after revealing conversations that point to irregular financing and money laundering with rigged contracts. The polls announce a close result between PP and PSOE, which could tie Ourensana Democracy and BNG on the right and left, so that everything is open.

FIRST ELECTORAL EXAMINATION FOR THE PP AFTER THE 'FEIJÓO ERA'

Vow of punishment. The PP trusts part of its campaign to the scarce support they see in the Government to Galicia, especially during and after the pandemic pandemic, and to fear a bipartite PSOE-Podemos.

BNG rise. The clear leadership of Ana Pontón and the demobilized vote of rupturism turned the BNG into a second force in the last electoral appointments and in the municipal elections it could consolidate its role.

Health. The discomfort over his management can subtract votes from the PP and give them to BNG and PSOE, which have led the protests as members of SOS Sanidade Pública.

• Galicia
• Autonomous Elections
• Municipal Elections

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