Diplomatic flirting and direct communication channels. Will Egyptian-Iranian relations return soon?

Cairo "A step forward. And a step back," is how an official source in the Egyptian Foreign Ministry described relations with Iran over more than 4 decades that witnessed a lot of tug-of-war and was affected by regional and international interactions, but froze at a certain point that it did not exceed.

According to the Egyptian source responsible for Al Jazeera Net, who spoke on condition of anonymity, the announcement of both Riyadh and Tehran to reach an agreement, to resume diplomatic relations, under Chinese auspices, opened the door to the possibilities of a similar step that may lead to the return of severed relations between Egypt and Iran.

And renewed diplomatic spinning by Tehran at more than one level in recent days and revealed the existence of direct channels of communication with Cairo, which met it with silence at the official level, while the official revealed the Egyptian Foreign Ministry to Al Jazeera Net unveiled the continued differences on a number of files, and said that Egypt "is not in a hurry."

The source explained that Iran's position in support of Hamas and Jihad in Palestine comes at the forefront of the points of disagreement that still exist, and stated that Egypt requires Iran to stop interfering in its internal affairs as well as neighboring countries and commitment to the determinants of Egyptian national security with a security settlement for the file of Egyptian elements accused of what he called terrorism and resort to Tehran.

The Egyptian official considered that the normalization of Iranian-Saudi relations confirms that "politics is a changing and evolving thing according to interest," referring to the possibility of projecting this on the possible rapprochement between Cairo and Tehran, but said that there is difficulty in predicting any date for the resumption or normalization of relations, noting at the same time that the Iranian official appreciation of Egypt and President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is increasing significantly.

He pointed out that the current trend in Cairo is "to wait, there is nothing to rush," adding, "We wait and see Iran's policies in the next stage."

Difficulties on the way

On the other hand, the road does not seem paved as seen by Professor of International Relations at Menoufia University Hazem Ghandour in his speech to Al Jazeera Net and indicates that Israel, for example, will not stand idly by and will not allow such rapprochement, considering that the normalization of relations between the two largest regional powers will never be in the interest of Israel.

Mai Samaha, a professor of political science at Misr University of Science, also expects the rapprochement between Cairo and Tehran to continue.

Samaha told Al Jazeera Net that the expected rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey, which began its steps recently with mutual visits to the foreign ministers of the two countries will encourage Cairo to move forward positively in the direction of Tehran.

But Hassan Nafaa, a professor of international relations at Cairo University, said in a tweet that there are countries and powers that have an interest in neutralizing any rapprochement between Egypt and Iran because this rapprochement will lead to "geo-strategic" changes in the region and Tel Aviv will inevitably suffer from it.

The two countries severed diplomatic relations in 1980, one year after the overthrow of Iran's last Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who fled to Egypt and was granted asylum, and relations resumed 11 years later, but at the level of chargé d'affaires and interest offices.

The #إيران and #مصر embassies will reopen soon.

A member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee in the Iranian parliament, Fadahossein Malki, told #وكالة_تسنيم_الدولية that Iranian-Egyptian negotiations are underway in Iraq and relations between the two countries will resume in the near future#الانتخابات_التركيه #ثأر_الاحرار pic.twitter.com/IigqaFgNMk

— Tasnim International News Agency (@Tasnim_Arabic) May 14, 2023

Cairo slows down

Osama al-Sibai, a researcher on Asian affairs at Cairo University and at the Foreign Ministry, believes Cairo will take a moment before taking any step or responding positively to "Iranian diplomatic spinning."

Sibai said in his speech to Al Jazeera Net that there is no strategic need to accelerate the steps of developing relations despite Egypt's awareness of the importance of the Iranian role in the region.

"Has Iran demonstrated a change in policy and stopped interfering in Egypt's affairs and supporting jihadist groups?" he asked. "We have to wait and monitor Iran's behavior in the next phase," he said.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said in a brief televised statement upon his departure to participate in the Arab summit in Saudi Arabia that "the relationship with Iran continues as it is and when there is an interest in changing a methodology, we certainly always resort to achieving the interest."

Shoukry also said that "instability in politics is a natural thing, because the goal is to achieve the interest," explaining that "the variable requires an assessment of the returns learned from it, and what is the future after developing those relationships."

Iranian optimism

The Egyptian silence was met with optimism on the part of Iran, which returned to diplomatic flirtation this time through Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who expressed hope that relations would witness serious and mutual development and openness.

In an interview with the Iranian news agency IRNA, Abdollahian touched on "an upgrade in the level of relations between Iran and Egypt," and explained that the Office of Interests of the two countries is active in Tehran and Cairo, considering that this represents an important channel for direct communication between the two countries.

The Iranian minister revealed that there are unnamed countries that are making efforts and encouraging the two countries to raise the level of relations between them, stressing the holding of meetings between the heads of the interests office of the two countries in Tehran and Cairo, saying, "Relations with Egypt come within the priority of Iran's foreign policy."

Fida Hossein Malki, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of Iran's Islamic Consultative Assembly, announced that the embassies of Iran and Egypt would be reopened soon.

He said in remarks broadcast by the Mehr news agency that negotiations between Iran and Egypt are underway in Iraq and relations between the two countries will resume in the near future.

The deputy in the Iranian Shura Council predicted the opening soon of the embassies in both countries, and said that "after this step, a meeting will be arranged between the Iranian President, Mr. Ebrahim Raisi, and the Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi."

Hot coil cooling

Observers monitor a series of pressure variables that prompted all forces to reconsider their positions after the rules of the game changed dramatically, says Sami Al-Jabri, an expert at the Center for Arab Studies in his interview with Al Jazeera Net.

Al-Jabri believes that the Russian invasion of Ukraine forced the majority of countries to move towards cooling hot files, zeroing problems and giving priority to national interests.

Egypt must look at the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement from this perspective and move through it if it wants to prioritize its supreme interest, he said, "and it must deal positively with Iran's steps for normalization and cooperation".

Al-Jabri admitted that Egypt may be under US and Israeli pressure to prevent it from moving in this direction, "but it must choose its own interest," and that the Iranian move towards Saudi Arabia and Egypt is mainly aimed at breaking the regional and international isolation on Tehran and overcoming some of the internal problems.

It was noteworthy that Egypt's welcome of the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement immediately linked this step to the need to reduce tension in the region, according to a presidential statement.

According to Egyptian Presidency Spokesman Ahmed Fahmy, Cairo hopes that this development will have a positive impact on Iran's regional policies and constitute an opportunity to confirm its orientation towards a policy that takes into account the legitimate concerns of the countries of the region.