ANKARA – In a race awaited by the world, especially the Arab world, Turkey's general elections concluded with the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) leading the results of the parliamentary elections, while at the presidential level it ended in a run-off after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan led by 49.51% compared to 44.88% for his rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
The People's Alliance, which includes the Justice and Development Party (AKP), the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and other parties led by Erdogan, won 49.46 percent in the parliamentary elections, guaranteeing him a majority of 321 of the 600 seats in parliament.
In contrast, the People's Alliance, which includes the Republican People's Party (CHP), the Nationalist Good Party (IYY) and other parties led by Kılıçdaroğlu, won 35.14 percent (213 seats).
The Labor and Freedom Alliance came in third with 10.53% and won 66 seats.
If the matter becomes settled in the parliamentary elections, the presidential elections will witness the second round between Erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu after the exclusion of the third candidate, Sinan Ogan, who won 5.17% of the votes, in an unexpected result and contrary to opinion polls that gave him only about 2% of the votes.
Therefore, Ogan's voting bloc will be one of the factors influencing the outcome of the second round to be held on May 28.
Sinan Ogan, the presidential candidate of the Ancestral Alliance, received a surprise result of 5.3% of the vote. Observers explained that this percentage came from the votes that were going to Muharram Ince, who withdrew from running for the presidential elections. pic.twitter.com/nj4XTEI9Fd
— Yeni Shafak Arabic (@YeniSafakArabic) May 15, 2023
Kingmaker!
Researcher and advisor on Turkish affairs Mahmoud Alloush considered that Ogan's role will be important in the second round, but he ruled out that he will be the "kingmaker" in the Turkish presidential elections.
Alloush reasoned that the votes obtained by Ogan did not reflect his solid electoral base bloc, estimated at about 2%, and that the additional 3% he received were from the nationalist votes in the six-party alliance that opposed Kılıçdaroğlu's alliance with the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP).
According to Alloush, who spoke to Al Jazeera Net, the voting behavior of the 3% will not necessarily be compatible with Ogan if he decides to support Kılıçdaroğlu, not to mention his condition on Kılıçdaroğlu to end the relationship with the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party in order to support him in the presidential elections.
Nationalist ideology
On the other hand, writer and political analyst Ali Asmar believes that Ogan's votes will be decisive in the second round, but he agrees with Alloush that it is difficult for the nationalist-oriented Ogan to sit at a table supported by the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP).
But Asmar pointed out – in an interview with Al Jazeera Net – that the policy of Ogan, and behind him the National Ancestral Alliance, which includes the Victory Party headed by Ümit Özdağ, is inconsistent with the Justice and Development Party regarding the refugee file.
According to the spokesman, the ancestral alliance with the ruling coalition differs in many files, including the economy, but the file of refugees in general and Syrians in particular remains the biggest obstacle, as the ancestral alliance insists on returning refugees forcibly and not voluntarily.
Of course, Asmar asserts that both Erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu must make concessions if they want to gain Oğan's support.
Allouş commented that Kılıçdaroğlu's concession of HDP support is a problem preventing this from happening. "Kılıçdaroğlu cannot abandon the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), which brought him almost 10 percent of the vote in order to get 5 percent of Ogan's votes in the run-off, so the equation looks very difficult," he said.
According to the political researcher, "Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's poor result in the presidential elections is mainly due to the repercussions of the alliance with the HDP on the nationalist voting bloc in the opposition front."
The first round of elections gave a majority to Erdogan's coalition in parliament but did not decide who won the presidency (Reuters)
The HDP dilemma
Writer Ali Asmar argues that the bloc supporting Ogan is "purely nationalist and hardline" so it will be difficult to direct them to vote either to Kılıçdaroğlu or Erdogan.
Asmar explained that the main goal of establishing the "ancestral alliance" is to expel refugees from Turkey, and on the other hand, the cadres of the alliance, whether Ogan or Özdağ, do not favor the HDP because they believe that it is "a political extension of the terrorist PKK."
Alloush agrees with Asmar that nationalist ideology is an important factor in the voting behavior of this group, in addition to the political position towards Erdogan and the government's performance in the economy.
Alloush explained that this bloc will look in the second round at the risk of a president backed by the HDP winning, and on the other hand, the fact that the influence of the Kurdish Heda Bar Party in Erdogan's alliance is much less than that of the HDP given that the latter is an extension of the PKK, which is classified as a "terrorist group" by Ankara.
An equation that will not change
Based on this situation, the political expert says, "the Kurdish situation and the national situation in general serve President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the run-off more than the opposition candidate Kılıçdaroğlu."
Alloush stressed that the existing dilemma of the Ogan bloc may lead to this bloc or some of them resorting to neutrality and abstaining from voting for any of the candidates in the second round.
In the case of neutrality, Erdogan remains ahead of Kılıçdaroğlu by 4%, and the analyst adds that this bloc or this voting difference between the two sides is unlikely to shrink.
Even if there is a shift in Sinan Ogan's voting bloc and its support for the opposition, Alloush ruled out that this would change the equation in the presidential election race, adding that the likelihood of the nationalist voter heading to Erdogan will be higher than his orientation to Kılıçdaroğlu.
Despite the fact that the coming period until the second round is tiring for Turkey in terms of political polarization, according to Alloush, "but it will not change the political reality that Turkey has woken up to today, which is that the opposition suffered a resounding and historic defeat and that President Erdogan was able to achieve almost 90% of the resounding and shocking great victory in Turkey."
He explained that "despite the circumstances in which Erdogan ran in the elections, from the repercussions of the earthquake to the level of inflation (almost 45%) to the confrontation of an opposition that was able to bring together most parties of different ideological orientations, he was able to achieve a great victory in the parliamentary elections, and surpass Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in almost the first round of the presidency, and this is certainly an amazing result for Erdogan."