Portrait

Argentina: Javier Milei, solid outsider, and future president?

Argentine libertarian economist Javier Milei, in a Buenos Aires square, October 2021. AFP - JUAN MABROMATA

Text by: Jean-Louis Buchet

6 min

A newcomer to Argentine politics, the 42-year-old economist is running for president with an ultra-liberal program, which includes the dollarization of the economy. Faced with the traditional parties, it is rising in the polls.

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From our correspondent in Buenos Aires,

Three years ago, invited on TV sets for his esclandres and excesses, he almost passed for a buffoon. Today, all polls give him present in the second round of the presidential election of November 2023 and some even give him chances to win. Chestnut tignasse pulling on the red, always a bit disheveled, but more primed now, eyes of a piercing blue, Javier Milei, leader of the party La Libertad avanza (Freedom advances), which he created in 2021, is more than the man who rises in Argentine politics.

This 42-year-old outsider, elected deputy in Buenos Aires in November 2021, is about to dynamite a system operating so far on Peronism/anti-Peronism antinomy and the confrontation of two major coalitions, in this case, according to their latest names, Frente de Todos ("Front for All", which brings together the different Peronist currents) and Juntos por el Cambio ("Together for Change", alliance dominated by a centre-right formation, the Pro, but which owes its territorial roots to the old radical, centrist, if not centre-left party).

The first coalition has been in power since 2019, with Alberto Fernández as president and former president Cristina Kirchner as vice-president. Fernández succeeded Mauricio Macri, founder of the Pro, who had won the presidency at the head of the second coalition, then called Cambiemos ("Let's Change"). But for Milei, it's all the same: all these politicians, of whatever stripe, are members of a "caste" distant from the people and that he denounces, garnering loud applause in a society marked by disappointment or rejection of his ruling class.

"Anarcho-liberal" economist

Populism? Javier Milei is surfing on an anti-political sentiment that is not unique to Argentina, but is particularly strong in this country that lives in permanent crisis because of the failures of successive governments in power for decades. But his speech is not limited to the denunciation of the "caste".

This economist who defines himself as an "anarcho-liberal", presents himself as a libertarian, follower of the Austrian school of Friedrich Hayek (Nobel Prize in Economics 1974), also rebels against the omnipresence of the State and its encroachment on the lives of citizens, also meeting an echo in a country where the tax pressure (taxes + social charges) is one of the highest in the world, equivalent to those of France or Sweden, but with a much lower return in terms of quality of public services. This is a reality that cannot be denied, and Milei's promise to reduce public spending, including by abolishing many social benefits, is increasingly echoed, even among the most disadvantaged, who are in principle the main beneficiaries of the aid in question.

And when Milei insists that this unbridled public spending is financed by printing money, that is to say an uncontrolled monetary issue, ordered by the government and executed by the Central Bank, yet theoretically independent, and leads to an almost daily depreciation of the peso, the national currency, thus to inflation that accelerates, to the point of reaching more than 100% per year, He is listened to. Many Argentines are ready to adhere to the solutions proposed by the libertarian presidential candidate to remedy this situation that affects them in everyday life.

The Milei solution? Abolition of the Central Bank and dollarization, i.e. replacement of the peso by the North American dollar as the legal tender in Argentina. It is true that the dollar, the reference currency for most international transactions, but also for the purchase of real estate, is now also becoming so, in view of the devaluation of the peso, for rents, as well as for other operations where a significant component of the price is expressed in this currency.

In favor of legalizing drugs but opposed to abortion

Dollarization has certain advantages, mentioned above. But the majority of the political class rejects it in the name of the loss of national sovereignty, not without emphasizing, with many economists, the corset it entails for the countries that have adopted it, such as Panama or Ecuador, since it prohibits any independent monetary policy. Be that as it may, it appeals to many Argentines, who have long since adopted the dollar as a reserve and savings currency.

Anti-political class and ultra-liberal in economics, Javier Milei is also a curious character, who sometimes muddies the tracks, but still gives clear indications on his ideological orientations. In favor of the legalization of drugs, but opposed to abortion, he is for the creation of a market for the sale of organs. He is also in favour of the free possession of weapons by citizens as a response to the rise in delinquency.

Milei populist? Probably. Far-right? Many think so. But, given its growing popularity as measured by the polls, few in the mainstream parties oppose it. As for Juntos por el Cambio, the current main opposition, where two candidates will openly face each other in the August primaries, one, Patricia Bullrich, considered more to the right, claims to have points of contact with Milei; while the other, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, supposedly more centrist, wants to debate with him, but rejects a possible dollarization.

As for the Frente de Todos, the Peronist coalition in power, its potential candidates are very cautious about Milei. Cristina Kirchner, an undeclared candidate, rejects it ideologically, but nothing more; Alberto Fernández, who has given up standing again, sees him as a danger against democracy; Sergio Massa, Minister of Economy and probable candidate, does not talk about it.

The primaries in August (mandatory) will give a first verdict. According to the polls, they should appoint for the first round of the presidential election, the opposition candidate in the lead, but, in a very contested second place, Javier Milei would prevail over the representative of the current presidential majority. And, if these predictions were confirmed, the duel of the second round, without the presence of a Peronist (a first since the return of democracy in 1983), would see a non-Peronist centrist oppose Javier Milei. It remains to be seen (there are no polls on the subject yet) how the Peronist electorate would react in this hypothesis. Significant abstention? Republican vote, Macron vs. Le Pen style? Or open? Milei is popular in disadvantaged neighborhoods and among young people.

With inflation of more than 100% annually, a crippled Central Bank and permanent political uncertainty, Argentina is living on the brink of a crisis that could lead to a social explosion at any time between now and the November elections. But, the worst is never certain, the hypothesis of a presence of Javier Milei in the second round is very likely. And, from there, "Milei Presidente!" would become more than a slogan.

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