Stratfor noted what to watch out for from Ukraine's expected counterattack, commenting that although the counterattack could initially bring limited territorial gains, it could put Russian forces on the defensive, and ultimately likely force Russian President Vladimir Putin to take more unpopular mandatory mobilization measures to continue his war.
Stratfor estimates that a long-awaited Kiev counteroffensive is imminent, with leaked U.S. intelligence documents indicating that most Ukrainian troops trained in some NATO countries were scheduled to arrive home by May 1, meaning they will likely arrive at the front and be ready for offensive operations in the coming weeks.
The main direction of the Ukrainian offensive in the Zaporizhia region is likely to be towards the Sea of Azov, and Kiev will not rush to attack, waiting for sufficient stockpiles of Western weapons to reach the main areas and waiting for warm and dry climatic conditions favorable for military operations.
As for the exact location of Ukraine's main target, Stratfor believes that it will depend on where Russia chooses to deploy its troops, and the second most likely target for attack is the central Donbass region around Pakhmut.
Ukraine's offensive is likely to involve a great deal of deception, as well as some small amphibious movements across the Dnipro, particularly in the lower part of the river delta and around the crucial town of Nova Kakhovka.
According to estimates by the U.S. intelligence website, Ukraine will likely lack the materials needed to retake large swathes of territory from Russian forces in the coming months.
But even relatively small increased gains could put Russian forces in a worse position to the point of considering it a practical victory for Kiev.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive is also likely to prompt Putin to endorse another wave of mobilization later this year, which could increase the political and economic costs of the war on Moscow.