On May 5, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida began his "shuttle diplomacy" tour with South Korea. According to Japan's Kyodo News Agency, the Japan-ROK summit was officially held that afternoon. Kishida said the two countries "have actively opened various dialogues and hope to exchange views on the progress of bilateral relations." South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue said that "Japan and South Korea should cooperate closely" and believed that "cooperation should be carried out before historical issues are sorted out." Some analysts pointed out that in order to cater to the United States, Japan and South Korea have improved their relations, but they have tried their best to avoid sensitive topics such as historical issues and territorial issues, and the embarrassment of bilateral relations has been fully displayed.

Public opinion in South Korea is difficult to calm down

Japan-South Korea relations have rapidly warmed up due to Yoon Seok-yue's visit to Japan in March this year, and South Korea has since set off a wave of denunciation of his "humiliating diplomacy." However, instead of having the slightest intention of "relenting", Yoon Seok-yue has also kept making bottomless "retreats" on Japan's diplomatic behavior: he accepted almost all of Japan's demands on historical issues and made major concessions on the issue of labor compensation. Some analysts pointed out that so far, one of the focal points of the dispute between Japan and South Korea is the compensation for Japanese forced Korean workers during World War II. Mr. Yoon's mobilization of large South Korean companies to pay South Korean workers at their own expense is ostensibly the best of both worlds, and has been greatly appreciated by Japan and the United States, but the question is, can South Koreans really swallow this breath?

In order to achieve his diplomatic goals, Yoon Seok-yue is promoting Japan-South Korea diplomacy based on an incomprehensible view of history, despite domestic opposition. Yoon Seok-yue has repeatedly said that he does not seek an apology from Japan on historical issues, but Japan's apology is exactly what the Korean people need. What the South Korean people want is fairness and an apology, that is, for Japan to face up to history. In doing so, Yoon Seok-yue ostensibly "warmed up" Japan-South Korea relations, but in fact sowed more seeds of "hatred" for Japan-South Korea relations. Japanese media quoted South Korea's Dong-A Ilbo as saying that in a poll held in South Korea on April 4, 1 percent of respondents said they did not have a favorable impression of Japan.

Public opinion here believes that there is a dispute between conservatives and progressives within the South Korean government. In the long run, Japan-South Korea relations depend largely on which side of South Korea is in office. Progressives, for example, were very tough on Japan when he was in office, so Japan-South Korea relations at that time were very poor; By the time the conservatives represented by Yoon Seok-yue came to power, their attitude towards Japan was not only "friendly" but even "weak." As far as the current situation is concerned, although Japan-ROK relations have improved, the contradictions in South Korea have become serious. The opposition of South Korea's largest opposition party, the Democratic Party of Korea, is one wave after another, and the Democratic Party of Korea is an opposition party with a large number of seats, and many bills are difficult to pass without its consent.

But even if the Yoon Seok-yue government makes a compromise, some politicians and right-wingers in Japan still do not buy it. He believes that Kishida's recognition of the Korean Foundation's compensation for workers is tantamount to recognizing that Korean workers have the right to individual compensation, leaving "hidden dangers" for the future.

Structural contradictions remain prominent

There are many unresolved issues between Japan and South Korea. The two sides have serious differences on the comfort women issue and the 2018 incident in which South Korean warships carried out "fire control radar irradiation" on patrol aircraft of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, and the two sides will not have in-depth talks on these aspects; Kishida tried to seek further understanding and support from the South Korean side on the discharge of contaminated water into the sea, and although the South Korean government's attitude has "softened", the continued opposition of the opposition and the people will not stop.

According to Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun, Tian Rongji, a lawmaker from South Korea's largest opposition party, the United Democratic Party, boarded the "Takeshima" (known as "Dokdo" in South Korea) on April 4, posting photos of himself holding up the South Korean flag and wearing the national flag on social media, with an accompanying text saying that this was to show that the island is controlled by South Korea, and said that he "will gamble his life to resist Japanese aggression and protect South Korea's inherent territory." ”

According to Japanese media reports, the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Embassy in South Korea protested to the South Korean Embassy in Japan and the South Korean Foreign Ministry respectively over this matter. The Japanese side claimed that Tian Rongji's behavior was "absolutely unacceptable" and expressed "extreme regret" over this. The South Korean Foreign Ministry responded that it had rejected Japan's improper claims through diplomatic channels and reiterated South Korea's consistent position on the Dokdo issue: "From the historical, geographical and international legal levels, Dokdo is South Korea's inherent territory, and any claim by Japan to South Korea's territorial sovereignty is unacceptable." ”

Dokdo is located in the eastern part of the Korean Peninsula and covers an area of about 0.18 square kilometers. South Korea, North Korea and Japan have all claimed sovereignty over the island, which is currently under de facto control by South Korea. Some analysts believe that when Japan-South Korea relations are improving, Japan and South Korea once again have disputes over the disputed island issue, highlighting the serious differences between the two countries on territorial issues. The meeting between the leaders of Japan and South Korea can only focus on defense and economics, and try to avoid these "sensitive topics."

The United States is busy "manipulating" behind the scenes

Some analysts pointed out that the improvement of Japan-ROK relations is to a large extent subject to the behind-the-scenes "manipulation" of the United States and serves the strategic interests of the United States, which is closely related to the Asia-Pacific policy of the United States.

U.S. President Joe Biden plans to hold trilateral talks with the leaders of Japan and South Korea during his attendance at the G7 Hiroshima summit, Japan's Kyodo News Agency reported. This will be another meeting between the heads of state of Japan, the United States and South Korea since they met in Cambodia last November. The report also said that the Biden administration welcomes the improvement of relations between Japan and South Korea. According to the Japan Times, Japan, as the rotating presidency of the G11, has invited South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue to attend the expanded meeting of the G7 Summit as a guest.

For South Korea, tensions in the peninsula are conducive to guiding domestic public opinion in favor of policies to strengthen the ROK-US alliance and compromise with Japan. Since Yoon Seok-hyeol came to power, South Korea has constantly lowered its stature in foreign policy, leaving even its basic dignity behind. After the "leak" of internal documents in the United States, it was revealed that the CIA monitored the South Korean presidential palace for more than 40 years. However, during his visit to the United States, Yoon did not ask the other party to apologize, and blindly declared that the relationship between the two countries was "unbreakable." The United States intends to use Japan-South Korea relations to improve the trilateral military cooperation mechanism between the United States, Japan, and South Korea, including the extended deterrence strategy, while demanding that South Korea obey the US strategy of blocking competitors in the high-tech field.

Some analysts believe that there are signs in the Asia-Pacific region that Japan is trying to follow the United States in foreign strategy, while South Korea is imitating Japan in "close quarters". The commentary pointed out that the twisted melon is jerky and difficult to swallow - Japan-South Korea relations seem to be rapidly approaching under the behind-the-scenes "manipulation" of the United States, but there are too many outstanding issues between the two countries, and structural contradictions are difficult to resolve.

(Tokyo, May 5 -- Ma Yuan, a reporter of this newspaper in Tokyo)