International Intelligence Bureau: Japan-South Korea's "shuttle diplomacy" caters to the United States, and it is difficult to solve the frozen grievance

China News Network, 5 May (Chen Caixia, reporter Meng Xiangjun, sweet and sweet) From 8 to 7 May local time, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited South Korea. The visit comes only 8 days after South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue's visit to Japan. This means that the "shuttle diplomacy" of the exchange of visits between ROK and Japan has been restarted after 52 years.

However, Kishida's visit to South Korea sparked many "anti-Japanese protest rallies" in South Korea. Korean media commented that amid criticism of "humiliating diplomacy", a leader's visit is difficult to resolve differences between the two sides.

Chen Yang, a visiting researcher at the Center for Japanese Studies at Liaoning University, said in an interview with Chinanews.com that in view of the Yoon Seok-yue's government's continuous compromise with Japan, the support rate of South Korea's ruling party and the parliamentary election are expected to come under pressure; Coupled with the fact that historical issues such as South Korea and Japan regarding the discharge of nuclear sewage from Fukushima into the sea and Japan's forced conscription of South Korean laborers during World War II still exist, the two countries may not "shake hands and make peace" as they wish, but will pay a huge political price for this.

South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue shook hands with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at a joint press conference in Seoul on May 5.

Resuming "shuttle diplomacy" after 12 years

There are many grievances that are difficult to reconcile

From May 5 to 7, Kishida's visit to South Korea lasted for two days. This is Kishida's first visit to South Korea since he became prime minister, and it is also the second visit to South Korea by a Japanese prime minister in five years.

According to the schedule, the ROK and Japan leaders held discussions on security and defense cooperation, high-tech industries, science and technology, youth and cultural cooperation.

According to Bloomberg's previous disclosure, Yoon Seok-yue also prepared charcoal-fired barbecue, Korean rice wine and depth charge "cocktails" to treat Kishida, hoping to enhance the relationship between the two sides and establish a relationship of trust.

Although these talks and arrangements reflect the desire of South Korea and Japan to reach consensus, downplay historical issues, and deepen bilateral cooperation, Chen Yang pointed out that the foundation for the improvement of current relations between South Korea and Japan is still relatively weak, and it is difficult for the two countries to completely achieve "handshake and peace". He listed the following reasons:

First of all, old and new historical issues are constantly intertwined, and there are many challenges and difficulties. Although South Korea and Japan have advanced the settlement of the "forced labor problem in World War II", there are still problems such as comfort women, nuclear sewage discharge, and territorial disputes between South Korea and Japan. It's like "pressing the gourd and floating the scoop", and various differences are always between the two countries.

Citizens' groups protest the South Korean government's settlement of World War II labor claims in Seoul, South Korea, March 3.

Second, Kishida and Yoon face different political environments, which may affect the process of improving relations between South Korea and Japan.

From the perspective of Japan, the approval rating of the Kishida cabinet has generally increased. According to a poll released by the Sankei Shimbun in April, Kishida's cabinet has 4.50% support. In addition, the ruling party led by Kishida currently holds a majority in the Diet, which means that Kishida will have more autonomy in promoting the improvement of relations with South Korea, and will not be influenced by opposition parties or public opinion.

But in South Korea, on the other hand, Yoon Seok-yue's approval rating is still very low. According to May 5 survey data by polling agency South Korea's Gallup, Yoon Seok-yue's favorable rating for his administration was only 5%, and the bad rating rate was as high as 33%.

"Because Yoon Seok-yue's recent actions toward Japan and the United States have caused dissatisfaction in South Korean society, this means that the ruling party led by Yoon Seok-yue may lose the 2024 parliamentary election." Chen Yang pointed out, "In this way, the improvement of relations with Japan promoted by Yoon Seok-yue so far will most likely be rejected by the South Korean National Assembly, where the opposition party holds a majority of seats, which will lead to another downturn in South Korea-Japan relations." ”

Cooperate with the United States in the construction of a "small NATO"?

Kishida has three major political considerations

Earlier, Japanese media disclosed that Kishida originally planned to visit South Korea in July and August 2023, and the current visit to South Korea is obviously much earlier. Chen Yang believes that Kishida's choice to visit South Korea at this time is mainly due to the following three political considerations:

First, Japan, which holds the 2023 G7 presidency, will hold the G5 Leaders' Summit in Hiroshima on May 19. Kishida said in 7 that he would invite the leaders of South Korea, India, Australia and other countries to attend the summit. Therefore, his visit to South Korea at this time can be regarded as a special trip to invite Yoon Seok-yue to participate in the meeting.

Protesters rally in front of the presidential palace in Seoul, South Korea, May 5 to oppose Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's visit to South Korea.

Second, accelerate the improvement of ROK-Japan relations. Since the South Korean government proposed a solution to the "forced labor problem in World War II" and Yoon Seok-yue's visit to Japan in March, public opinion has criticized the Japanese government for being "not active enough" and "not making a favorable response" in promoting the improvement of relations between South Korea and Japan. Therefore, Kishida's visit to South Korea is also to show the "sincerity" of the Japanese government in promoting the improvement of bilateral relations.

Third, cooperate with the strategic deployment of the United States. South Korea and Japan are both allies of the United States, and the United States has always hoped for stable relations between South Korea and Japan in order to promote the construction of a "small NATO" in Northeast Asia. Earlier, Yoon Seok-yue visited the United States to further deepen the ROK-US alliance. At present, Kishida's visit to South Korea can also be seen as catering to the will of the United States, promoting the stability of the trilateral security relationship between the United States, South Korea and Japan, and better cooperating with the strategic deployment of the United States.

It sparked protests in South Korea

The government may pay a political price

Although the South Korean government has "done everything in its power" to improve relations with Japan, its domestic people are not buying it.

According to the "Han Minzu Ilbo" report, on the eve of Kishida's visit to South Korea, the South Korean people held an "anti-Japanese protest rally" in Seoul on the 6th. At the rally, protesters held signs with slogans such as "Apologize and compensate for historical issues," "Oppose Japan-US military cooperation," and "Oppose the discharge of nuclear sewage into the sea," demanding "the suspension of humiliating diplomacy with Japan."

On the afternoon of the 7th, Kishida held talks with Yin Xiyue. According to the Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK), Yoon told Kishida at the meeting that "it is necessary to get rid of the mentality that 'cooperation in the future cannot be promoted without liquidating history.'" This remark was quickly strongly criticized by South Korean netizens. Some warned Yoon Seok-yue that "a nation that forgets the past has no future."

Will Yoon Seok-yue pay a political price for this at home? Chen Yang believes that Yoon Seok-yue's approval rating is likely to continue to decline, which means that there is a high probability of regime rotation in the 2027 South Korean presidential election.

Chen Yang believes that since Yin Xiyue has begun to promote the improvement of relations with Japan since taking office, it means that it is unlikely that he will suddenly adjust his foreign policy towards Japan in the future, and will continue the current practice, either compromise and concession or "humiliating diplomacy." As a result, the South Korean people will continue to protest, further reducing Yoon Seok-yue's support rating.

A protester holds a photo of the leaders of the United States, Japan and South Korea at a rally opposing Kishida's visit in Seoul, South Korea, May 5.

The United States, South Korea, and Japan engage in "small circles"

The "military alliance" strategy is unlikely to work

In response to the continuous strengthening of security cooperation between the United States, South Korea and Japan, Chen Yang believes that the three parties were initially to deal with the "North Korean threat", but judging from a series of recent interactions and related statements, the three parties are moving towards a "military alliance" and gradually expanding the target from North Korea to China and Russia. In other words, the United States is enlisting South Korea and Japan to build a "small NATO."

However, Chen Yang stressed that the strategic objectives of the United States, South Korea, and Japan are difficult to achieve. On the one hand, there are still inherent contradictions between South Korea and Japan, which will greatly affect the stability of trilateral security cooperation between the United States, South Korea and Japan. On the other hand, peace and stability is the broad pursuit and consensus of regional countries, and the United States' intention to enlist its allies to engage in "small circles" and "small groups" in the region is doomed to be difficult to succeed, and will be widely opposed by regional countries.

Chen Yang pointed out that in view of this situation, China should strengthen cooperation in various fields with Japan and South Korea as major economies in the region, and promote the prosperity and development of each other and even the region through cooperation, so as to weaken and dilute the influence and presence of trilateral security cooperation between the United States, South Korea and Japan.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin previously said at a regular press conference that China opposes the closure of exclusive "small circles" by individual countries and hopes that South Korea-Japan relations can develop in a direction conducive to regional peace, stability and prosperity. (End)