WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A report published by a U.S. think tank simulating a U.S.-China war in the event of China's invasion of Taiwan predicts catastrophic results within days after the fighting begins.

The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) conducted a simulation of how the United States uses diplomatic, military, and economic tools to stop and defeat an expected Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and the study was presented to the House Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and China.

War with China would see U.S. preferred munitions run out in the early days of the conflict, U.S. strategic bombers and submarines would give Washington a unique and asymmetric advantage in a potential conflict with China, and a military presence in the Indo-Pacific region would give U.S. forces a better position to defend Taiwan.

The simulation focused on strategic decision-making in Washington and Beijing, and sought to provide insights into what the United States could do to triumph if China failed to deter such a move.

The simulation sought to provide House members with an understanding of a range of potential Chinese options in line with their strategic guidance and military doctrine.


Heavy losses

According to the simulation model, if China decides to invade Taiwan and the United States intervenes to prevent it from controlling the island, the human, economic and military costs will be enormous for all parties involved.

Markets are likely to collapse with two of the world's largest economies at war with each other, maritime and commercial air traffic in the region halted due to rising insurance prices and fear of being caught in the crosshairs, and the conflict itself would be different from anything the United States or China has seen in their recent history.

According to the model, U.S. forces are under attack at more than 10 bases, lose more than 90 jets, have two attack submarines destroyed, 3 other attack submarines damaged, two amphibious ships sink, and one aircraft carrier is damaged, after just one week of fighting.

On the Chinese side, Beijing has lost more than 150 aircraft, 15 submarines, more than 100 surface ships and one aircraft carrier. But it has landed about 50,<> troops in Taiwan.

These horrific and principled losses make it harder for either country to engage in a potentially protracted military conflict with disastrous results for both sides.

Taiwanese troops during an annual exercise at a military base in the eastern city of Hualien (French)

4 stages of conflict

The simulation concluded that neither side could defeat the other quickly, and that the Chinese invasion of Taiwan was likely to become a long-term conflict.

The simulation authors argue that with more work needed to identify strategies that enable the United States to win in the long term, 4 different time frames for this conflict have been identified as follows:

  • Pre-war phase: U.S. actions should focus on strengthening conventional deterrence. Diplomacy will take center stage, as the United States will need to build international support for strong economic and military responses to potential aggression, as in the Biden administration's approach in the run-up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and U.S. officials will need to share intelligence with allies and partners to convince them that an attack is likely.
    Pre-war also requires steps to strengthen conventional deterrence, which calls for U.S. forces to be prepared to survive the first Chinese strike and effectively defend Taiwan in the event of deterrence failure.
    The United States will need to build troops and supplies in the region, secure access to key bases, and deploy its forces in a flexible manner.
  • The phase of the first days and weeks of the war: in which the focus will be on long-range exchanges of fire. Both China and the United States are likely to rely heavily on missile attacks against both forces and field bases.
    At this point, Beijing's growing stockpile of medium-range ballistic missiles is expected to enable the Chinese military to attack U.S. territory, such as Guam and the Mariana Islands, multiple times. However, on both sides long-range missiles will quickly run out.
  • A long war of attrition: begins with the depletion of the stocks of the United States and China of long-range missiles. China is likely to secure a beachhead in Taiwan with tens of thousands of troops, but then it will face the challenge of maintaining its forces as it faces fierce Taiwanese resistance and sustained attacks by U.S. forces.
    At this point, the United States will be able to push its navy and use short-range fighter jets more effectively after the threat of long-range missiles diminishes, but it will struggle to find ways to effectively deplete the Chinese military and support Taiwan's defense efforts with short-range weapons.

  • The phase of the economic war is protracted: It may last months or even years, and Beijing is likely to use its economic clout to hurt the United States and other countries that support Taiwan. In return, Washington and its allies will use sanctions and advanced export controls to undermine China's economic power.
    If Washington or Beijing take steps aimed at collapsing the other side's economy, panic is likely to prevail in the global market, leading to the collapse of the global economy.



Good news

The simulation suggests that economic warfare is a double-edged sword, and that U.S. efforts to weaken the Chinese economy and limit its ability to finance and fight war would create a negative reaction given the interdependence of the two countries' economies; this suggests that both China and the United States are likely to adapt and find ways to adjust their economies so that they can operate without each other if the conflict continues.

This catastrophic scenario does not need to materialize, but can be avoided if the United States takes immediate steps to enhance deterrence and improve the U.S. military's ability to defend Taiwan by better equipping its forces to withstand a pre-emptive strike and then responding to a possible Chinese invasion of the island, which can deter Beijing from contemplating any military action against Taiwan.