A leading Western expert has warned that Sudan could slide into chaos if the United States and its Arab partners do not rush to end the country's fierce fighting between the army led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as "Hemedti".

Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in the United States, described what is happening in Sudan as fighting between "gang leaders," referring to Burhan and Hemedti.

He said in an article in the American magazine "Foreign Affairs" that the world is distancing itself from the conflict there, but said that this is the first logical reaction to a "terrifying" war in which the heaviest weapons are used in the streets of the capital, Khartoum.

He said the city's residents were sheltering in their homes, while attack helicopters and fighter jets could be heard soaring through the sky, and battles raged in the streets of Khartoum, reducing buildings to rubble.

However, de Waal, a senior Western expert on Sudan, criticized Western countries for their negative stance on the conflict, noting that the exodus of foreign nationals from Sudan reflects a "darker" reality.

The United States and its Arab and European counterparts "who rushed to save their citizens made only lukewarm and belated efforts to stop the fighting and help the Sudanese," he said, referring to their initiative to impose a 72-hour truce on the warring parties, which began in mid-Monday but was quickly violated.

The Sudan Quartet, which includes the United States and Britain along with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, supported negotiations between Burhan and Hemedti to return the country to democratic rule following the coup they carried out together on October 25, 2021, but the Quartet's failure to rein in the "two generals" pushed them towards a "deadly" confrontation.


A catastrophic war

According to the article, Sudan, which only a few years ago seemed to be on the cusp of a long-awaited democratic transition, "now finds itself in the midst of a catastrophic civil war."

Western countries and Sudan's Arab and African neighbors, as well as China and Russia, agree on calling the conflict there a "disaster." For his part, de Waal sees the failure to end the war as a blatant condemnation of the international order, especially the Quartet.

If Sudan cannot be prevented from sliding into all-out war soon, the principle governing international evacuations – that everyone is looking for their own interest – will prevail.

De Waal attacked both Burhan and Hemedti, calling them "corrupt gang leaders," adding that the former considered himself head of state, while the latter was a partner of the former in the overthrow of the civilian administration of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok in October 2021.

In his article, the author reviewed the most prominent milestones witnessed by Sudan since the fall of the regime of former President Omar al-Bashir following a popular revolution in 2019.


Al-Burhan and Hemedti

Burhan is not an inspirational leader, he lacks particular charisma and vitality, his overall performance is lackluster, and he relies for his power on a military base and commercial interests, which Sudan's democracy advocates should call the "deep state." Burhan also has the backing of members of al-Bashir's ousted regime.

It is no longer a secret that Bashir loyalists see Burhan as the best bet to regain power, and many Sudanese see supporters of the former regime as having a hand in the war between Burhan and Hemedti.

Hemedti has his own strengths, played a crucial role in Bashir's ouster, showed ambition and vitality, overshadowed his current president, Burhan, runs a fast-growing business empire and forged his own ties with foreign powers.

However, if the RSF commander triumphs over the army, the likely outcome is that the government he forms will be "populist and corrupt," doing nothing to address the country's accelerating unemployment and hunger crises.

De Waal concludes that no international power wants this war to continue, revealing that Washington may favor stability over time and then lean towards proof, while Hemedti's relations with Russia's Wagner Group and his gold trade with Moscow may push it in the other direction.

There is now a small window for Washington and Riyadh to demand a more substantial humanitarian truce and insist on political dialogue.

The hope is that the Saudis can convince Cairo and Abu Dhabi not to fund or arm one side or the other, mobilize international support for a peace plan involving Kenyan President William Ruto, and defend the democratic movement that has shamefully betrayed it.

Any formula to end the war would require strong diplomatic skills and a multilateral framework that includes the United Nations and Africans.