In the past five centuries, hundreds of animals have disappeared from our world, and in most cases humans are to blame either for poaching or for climate change and pollution.

Because species extinction threatens nature, conservation efforts between 1993 and 2020 resulted in the conservation of up to 32 species of birds and up to 16 species of mammals.

But researchers from the Australian National University, the University of Florida and the Swiss Terrestrial Ecosystems Institute said a proactive step must be taken to preserve species before it is too late by predicting which species may be threatened with extinction in the future.

The researchers published the results of their study on predicting endangered species in the journal Current Biology on April 10.

3 main themes that endanger mammals, namely climate change, population growth, and land-use pattern (Getty Images)

Extinction factors of organisms

Marcel Cardello, lead author of the study and a researcher at the Australian National University, says in a press release published on the website "Viz.org" (Phys.org) that "prevention is better than cure, and what we need is some way to anticipate species that may not be endangered at the moment, but have a high chance of extinction in the future."

To predict the threat of extinction, the researchers examined 3 key areas that endanger mammals: climate change, population growth, land-use patterns, as well as the intrinsic biological characteristics that could make some species more vulnerable to extinction than others.

The research team predicts that by 2100, about 20 percent of land mammals will be exposed to two or more risk factors, and between 40 and 58 percent will be exposed to at least one factor.

Many large mammals are at risk of extinction on the continent of Africa and Australia (Marcel Cardelo-Current Biological)

Risk of extinction in Africa and Australia

In Central and Southern Africa, the expected average temperature increase from global warming by 2100 is about 1.5 times the global average.

"We found that many large mammals are at risk of extinction in sub-Saharan Africa, followed by southeastern Australia, due to climate change, population growth and land use," says Cardillo.

In addition, biotic characteristics affect the extinction of mammals in these areas, as large mammals such as elephants, rhinos, giraffes and kangaroos are often more likely to have lower numbers because their reproductive patterns affect their reproduction, for example elephants' gestation periods are long and affect the speed of their reproduction, unlike small mammals, such as rodents, which multiply rapidly and in larger numbers.

Researchers believe that the negative effects of nature reserves on indigenous peoples must be taken into account (Shutterstock)

Conservation of the species

"Governments have traditionally relied on creating nature reserves to remove or mitigate the causes that threaten species, but this is a strange way to conserve species, because it separates people from nature, and humans don't play a role in protecting creatures, and that's something that doesn't correspond to many cultures in many parts of the world," Cardillo says.

The researchers believe that the impact of nature reserves on indigenous people must be taken into account, as the indigenous population is about 50 million people in the continent of Africa, and about 900,<> in Australia, and the establishment of nature reserves in these areas may have negative effects on them.

To this end, Australia has taken serious steps in integrating humans with animals, establishing Aboriginal sanctuaries and working with community rangers.

Good planning

In conclusion, the researchers believe that confronting the extinction crisis requires good planning and a proactive approach to predict the changing factors over time, which may threaten more species in the coming decades.

"There is an important role that modeling studies should play, because they can provide a framework and a vision for future conservation planning, and we hope that our model will act as a catalyst for some kind of change," says Cardello.