"I give us two years, by early 2025, to get out of the shield on electricity," because of tariffs that remain "very high" compared to the pre-crisis situation, announced Friday the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, on LCI.

This tariff shield, announced in autumn 2021 by then Prime Minister Jean Castex at a time when energy prices were beginning to rise sharply, is expected to cost public finances €45 billion this year. To which are added other energy aids for households (fuel, oil, wood, etc.) and for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Despite this spending, the government continues to proclaim the end of "whatever it costs", preferring to speak of targeted aid that is not intended to be sustained.

EDF's electricity production remains "a little below what we could expect, so it makes rates that are even higher," said Bruno Le Maire. The exit of this shield will therefore be gradual "so as not to worry" the French.

Market prices for electricity remain high, particularly given questions about the smooth running of EDF's nuclear fleet, which has been affected by production difficulties, particularly due to corrosion problems.

The increase in the regulated electricity tariff, capped by the State thanks to subsidies, was 4% in 2022 and 15% in 2023.

"This is in itself a good thing for consumers, it is a positive measure, since it will avoid an explosion in electricity tariffs," François Carlier, of the consumer association CLCV, told AFP.

Not gas

On the other hand, the minister believes that the extension of the price shield on gas is no longer justified because natural gas prices have fallen significantly since the unprecedented peaks of 2022, caused by the war in Ukraine and the end of Russian gas exports to Western Europe. The shield will stop "this year", announced Bruno Le Maire.

For gas, "there is no reason to maintain the shield", said Bruno Le Maire, because of prices that "have returned to the pre-crisis situation, at 50 euros per megawatt hour".

On Friday, the reference price of natural gas in Europe was around 40 euros per MWh, the level of summer 2021, which was already about double the average prices of previous years.

Regarding electricity, Mr. Carlier indicates that, if the shield had been lifted as planned at the end of 2023, the regulated sales tariff, which concerns a majority of customers, would have exploded regardless of the evolution of the markets, because of the way it is calculated by the Energy Regulatory Commission.

If it depends in part on stable elements such as the price of nuclear produced by EDF and the cost of the network which increases little, a fraction depends on the average price of electricity on the wholesale markets over the last two years, explains Mr. Carlier.

Not penalizing consumers and with them growth while preserving public accounts, the equation is delicate for the government, as summarized by Mr. Le Maire in an interview with the Courrier Picard: "It is imperative to accelerate the deleveraging of the France with a goal of reducing public debt in 2027 by 4 points higher than what was planned last year," he explains.

Among the levers mentioned, the exit of the tariff shield and the end of exceptional checks for energy.

© 2023 AFP