Xinhua Viewpoint|The key data of the first quarter was released, how do you see the current economic situation?

The first quarterly report of China's economy in 2023 was released on the 18th: gross domestic product (GDP) was 284997 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%.

In the face of a severe and complex international environment and arduous tasks of domestic reform, development and stability, China's economy has made a good start. What do you think of this transcript? The reporter of "Xinhua Viewpoint" sorted out the key data.

GDP increased by 4.5% year-on-year: the economy stabilized and rebounded

In the first quarter, GDP increased by 4.5% year-on-year, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the fourth quarter of the previous year, and a month-on-month increase of 2.2%.

"With the rapid and stable transformation of epidemic prevention and control, various policies and measures to stabilize growth, employment and prices have moved forward, positive factors have accumulated and the national economy has stabilized and rebounded." Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said.

Since the beginning of this year, the World Bank and other international institutions have raised China's economic growth forecasts. "Under the current situation of weak recovery of the world economy as a whole, China's economy has shown positive momentum and injected beneficial increments into global growth." World Bank President Malpass said.

Fu Linghui said that considering the low base affected by the epidemic in the second quarter of last year, the economic growth rate in the second quarter of this year may be significantly faster than in the first quarter; As the base rises, the growth rate will decline in the third and fourth quarters. However, on the whole, the endogenous driving force of China's economic growth has gradually increased, macro policies have shown effective force, and economic operation is expected to improve as a whole.

Total consumption exceeded 11 trillion yuan: the overall recovery was good

In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China 114922 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year, compared with a decrease of 2.7% in the fourth quarter of last year; Final consumption expenditure contributed 66.6% to economic growth.

With the gradual release of residents' consumption demand, the growth of upgraded consumption has accelerated, and basic living consumption has continued to grow. In the first quarter, retail sales of goods increased by 4.9% year-on-year, compared with a decline of 1.7% in the fourth quarter of the previous year.

"Consumption as a whole showed a recovery trend." Fu Linghui said that with the continuous efforts of the consumption promotion policy, market sales have rebounded significantly, especially service consumption has improved significantly, and the driving force of consumption on economic growth has been significantly enhanced.

Yang Guangpu, associate researcher of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that at present, efforts should still be made to enhance residents' consumption confidence and ability, do everything possible to increase residents' income, so that the people can consume more confidently, and at the same time actively increase high-quality supply, effectively combine the expansion of consumption and supply-side structural reform, and continuously release consumption potential.

Investment in fixed assets increased by 5.1% year-on-year: steady investment growth is expected to continue

In the first quarter, the country's fixed asset investment increased by 5.1% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous year.

Fu Linghui said that since the beginning of this year, China has insisted on expanding domestic demand, actively played the key role of investment in optimizing the supply structure, increased investment in key areas and key links, expanded investment in the field of people's livelihood, effectively guaranteed and improved people's lives, and the stable growth of investment has effectively enhanced the development stamina.

It is worth noting that investment in high-tech industries grew faster in the first quarter, up 16% year-on-year. "The rapid development of high-tech industries is conducive to further improving the resilience of China's industrial chain and supply chain, and is conducive to continuously improving the added value of China's industry and its strength in global industrial competition." Xu Zhaoyuan, deputy director of the Industrial Economy Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said.

Yang Guangpu said that with the continuous recovery of the economy, the technological transformation, transformation and upgrading of traditional industries are expected to accelerate, digital transformation and green and low-carbon transformation continue to advance, and various support policies take effect, investment is expected to maintain stable growth.

Foreign trade increased by 4.8% year-on-year: export growth was higher than expected

In the first quarter, the total import and export value of China's trade in goods was 9.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. In March, the total value of imports and exports was 3.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 71.15% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 5.23% year-on-year and imports increased by 4.6%.

Lu Daliang, director of the Department of Statistical Analysis of the General Administration of Customs, said that since the beginning of this year, China's economic operation has stabilized and rebounded, production and demand have gradually improved, and foreign trade imports and exports have stabilized significantly. "In the first quarter, China's foreign trade imports and exports showed strong resilience, and the start was stable and good, laying the foundation for achieving stability and quality improvement in foreign trade throughout the year."

Zhuang Rui, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics, said that the rapid growth of exports is mainly reflected in the bright export of mechanical and electrical and high-tech products represented by new energy vehicles, as well as the improvement in export growth to trading partners such as countries along the "Belt and Road" and members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). In addition, due to the narrowing year-on-year increase in international commodity prices, the growth rate of import value was relatively low.

CPI rose 1.3% year-on-year: prices remained stable

In the first quarter, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.3% year-on-year, maintaining a moderate rise, and domestic prices continued to operate smoothly.

Stabilizing prices is an important task for doing a good job in this year's economic work. Fu Linghui said that the CPI growth rate continued to fall, mainly affected by some phased factors: market demand fell after the Spring Festival, the weather became warmer, the market volume of fresh vegetables increased more, and the prices of some foods fell; The supply of live pigs is abundant, and pork prices have declined; The overall decline in the international energy market, especially the crude oil market, has led to a lower domestic energy price.

Although the CPI growth rate has declined, the market supply and demand have remained basically stable. In the first quarter, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.8% year-on-year, unchanged from January-February.

"Looking forward to the whole year, China's industrial and agricultural products and services supply is abundant, the connection between production and marketing is smooth, the market order is good, and the overall economic recovery trend will gradually appear in prices, and it is expected that the overall price level will generally operate in a reasonable range." Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said.

PPI down 1.6% year-on-year: expected to gradually return to reasonable levels

In the first quarter, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) fell by 1.6% year-on-year, of which the price of means of production fell by 2.3%.

Fu Linghui said that since the beginning of this year, the world economic growth has slowed down, market demand has weakened, supply bottlenecks have eased, and commodity prices have fallen, driving the prices of domestic oil, nonferrous metals and other related industries to decline, coupled with the high base in the same period of the previous year, resulting in a widening of PPI decline.

From a month-on-month perspective, PPI is basically stable. The PPI fell 1.0% month-on-month in January and was flat in February and March.

Fu Linghui said that from the next stage of the situation, domestic demand generally tends to pick up, which has a certain pull-up effect on PPI, but the import transmission of international commodity prices still exists, coupled with the high base in the same period last year, PPI may be in the decline range in the short term. However, as the domestic economy recovers and the base effect gradually recedes, PPI will gradually return to a reasonable level.

The added value of industrial industry on the national scale increased by 3% year-on-year: achieving steady growth

In the first quarter, the added value of industries above designated size in the country increased by 3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points faster than that in the fourth quarter of last year.

From the perspective of industries, in the first quarter, 41 of the 23 industrial industries maintained year-on-year growth, with an increase of more than 20%. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the growth rate of added value of <> industries rebounded.

Production improvement of small and micro enterprises. In the first quarter, the added value of small and micro enterprises above designated size increased by 3.1% year-on-year. The questionnaire survey showed that the prosperity index of small and micro industrial enterprises under the regulation increased by 1.7 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter of the previous year, and the proportion of enterprises with good production and operation conditions increased by 1.2 percentage points.

"In the first quarter, the steady growth policy continued to be effective, market demand picked up, the industrial chain and supply chain accelerated recovery, and there were positive changes in industrial production, but there was uncertainty in the growth of external demand, and the price of industrial products was still declining." Fu Linghui said that in the next stage, it is necessary to deepen the supply-side structural reform, vigorously transform and upgrade traditional industries, cultivate and expand emerging industries, and promote the healthy development of industry.

The average unemployment rate in the national urban survey is 5.5 per cent: the employment situation has improved

In the first quarter, the average urban survey unemployment rate nationwide was 5.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter of the previous year. Among them, the urban survey unemployment rate in March was 3.5%, down 3.2 percentage points from February.

In March, the unemployment rate of labor force aged 3 to 25 was 59.4%, down 3.0 percentage points from the previous month; the unemployment rate of labor force with foreign agricultural household registration fell by 5.0 percentage points from the previous month... The unemployment rate of the main group of employed people has dropped significantly, and the employment of migrant workers has accelerated to improve.

Stabilizing business entities is the key to stabilizing employment. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and other three departments issued a notice at the end of March to continue the implementation of the policy of reducing unemployment and work-related injury insurance premiums until the end of 3. It is expected that the average annual burden reduction of about 2024 billion yuan this year and next year will generally benefit all kinds of business entities, including small and medium-sized enterprises.

Fu Linghui said that with the recovery of the economy and the expansion of labor demand, the employment situation is expected to continue. However, in view of the structural contradictions in employment, it is necessary to continue to increase employment assistance for young people, especially college graduates, accelerate the pace of industrial upgrading, and provide more high-quality jobs. (Reporter Wei Yukun, Zou Duowei, Han Jianuo, Zhang Bowen)