Is this a misstep or a risky balancing act? During his return trip following his state visit to China, Emmanuel Macron gave an interview to Les Échos, France Inter and the Politico website, published on Sunday 9 April, explaining his vision of the European position vis-à-vis the United States and China.

Claiming the bloc's strategic autonomy, the French president said that Europe must embody a third way on the Taiwan issue: "The worst thing would be to think that we Europeans should be followers on this subject and adapt to the American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction."

The remarks on Friday, on the eve of the start of Chinese military exercises around the island, have since sparked many comments. While Emmanuel Macron has stressed the importance of not "accelerating" a crisis in Taiwan, some observers and experts denounce counterproductive statements, likely, on the contrary, to incite a Chinese intervention to regain control of the island.

Defending European sovereignty

For the French president, the European approach to Taiwan is part of a more global policy that consists of making the bloc's sovereignty a priority.

Emmanuel Macron, who was already campaigning before the war in Ukraine for a "Europe of defense" ardently defended, in 2020, the economic rescue plan common to the 27 to face the coronavirus crisis. "Five years ago, it was said that European sovereignty did not exist," he said during this interview, believing that he had "won the ideological battle" within the union.

"The trap for Europe would be that at the moment when it reaches a clarification of its strategic position, where it is more strategically autonomous than before Covid-19, it is caught in a disruption of the world and crises that would not be ours," he stressed.

Several French China specialists, however, believe that the posture of neutrality on the Taiwanese question does not reflect the interests of either Paris or Brussels.

"The France obviously does not have the same interests as the United States, (but) why not simply recall that we have an interest in maintaining stability in the Strait (of Taiwan)?" asked Antoine Bondaz, a researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research.

"This is a statement that was not useful and very damaging to French politics," said Stéphane Corcuff, a professor at Sciences Po Lyon and a sinologist. "These statements are catastrophic because the only thing that can deter China from attacking Taiwan is that it knows that we will be there to respond," he said.

Bad timing

Since 1979, Taiwan has enjoyed a status quo that allows it to function as a state, although its independence is officially recognized by only 13 countries in the world. But Beijing, which has always considered this territory as one of its provinces, has multiplied in recent years threats to the autonomy of the island.

Just hours after the departure of Emmanuel Macron, the Chinese government, which opposes any official contact between Taipei and foreign governments, has triggered major military maneuvers around Taiwan. An operation in reaction to the meeting, Wednesday in California, of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen with the speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy.

If the interview of Emmanuel Macron was conducted before the beginning of these maneuvers, Antoine Bondaz nevertheless deplores a "catastrophic timing" while "the Chinese military pressure on Taiwan, but also economic, diplomatic and even informational, has never been so strong".

"The third way advocated by Emmanuel Macron against China seems very fragile while Beijing is staging the siege of Taiwan," indicated journalist Pierre Haski, who followed the president during his trip to China.

The third way advocated by Emmanuel Macron against China seems very fragile while Beijing stages the siege of Taiwan. My Geopolitics column of 7/9.30 @franceinter with the interview the president gave us on the plane home.https://t.co/GfzbQ0mjxj

— pierre haski (@pierrehaski) April 10, 2023

European unity in question

In addition to criticism of Emmanuel Macron's strategy, the French head of state's remarks, made in the name of Europe, raise questions about the positioning of the other countries of the bloc. "By saying this in the middle of the war in Ukraine, he is cutting himself off from half of the leaders of the EU who have only one obsession: to keep the Americans as protector and actor of this war," analyses Pierre Haski.

Just back from China, the French president will fly to the Netherlands on Tuesday for a state visit, largely dedicated, again, to strengthening the sovereignty of the EU.

While European leaders have so far refrained from commenting publicly on Emmanuel Macron's exits, the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC), a group of European and international parliamentarians, slammed his remarks, through a statement, saying that the French president "does not speak for Europe".

On the other side of the Atlantic, too, criticism is rife, especially within the conservative camp. "Has Macron become the leader of Europe? Is he now the most powerful ruler? Because if that's the case there are things we're going to have to change," Republican Senator Marco Rubio said in a video posted on his networks.

We need to find out if @EmmanuelMacron speaks for Europe After his 6 hour meeting in China he told reporters that Europe

should create distance with the U.S. & should not get involved in supporting America over China when it comes to Taiwanhttps://t.co/xoFmUGkumH pic.twitter.com/Ps718bXSyn

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) April 9, 2023

The Wall Street Journal published a scathing op-ed accusing the French president of "undermining American support for Europe" and "weakening deterrence against Chinese aggression."

Finally, the ultra-conservative channel Fox news vehemently castigated Emmanuel Macron's ingratitude. "So to sum up, we have been running to the rescue of France and Europe, at the slightest problem, for a century and that's how they thank us?" said presenter Todd Piro.

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