Franco-Chinese relations: how can Emmanuel Macron reconnect with China?

Maxime Asseo 14:46 pm, April 07, 2023

Three years after his last visit, Emmanuel Macron set foot on Chinese soil on Wednesday for a three-day state visit. Accompanied by about fifty business leaders, it will mainly be a question of economy and trade. Paris hopes to sign several contracts to rebalance a trade deficit. "We import much more from China than we export. The trains of the Silk Road arrive full of goods and leave empty or with a few bottles of Cognac," says Emmanuel Véron, a specialist in contemporary China and associate professor and researcher at Inalco.

In this sense, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen is also on the trip to address these economic issues on a European scale, but also the diplomatic aspect through the war in Ukraine.

A degraded Franco-Chinese relationship

For Emmanuel Macron, this state visit is an opportunity to heal the wounds of a degraded Franco-Chinese relationship. There are many causes, starting with Covid-19. A major part of French public opinion has become aware of "the authoritarianism put in place by China to manage the crisis, with its procession of lies and abuse," says Emmanuel Lincot, professor at the Catholic Institute of Paris and sinologist researcher associate at IRIS.

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"We discovered that we were facing a real authoritarianism," closely linked to the governance of Chinese President Xi Jinping, re-elected for a third term at the head of a state apparatus whose "aggressive statements say a lot about how they perceive us," continues Emmanuel Véron. A very different perception from twenty years ago, because of the loss of influence of the France in international affairs: "China considers us as a middle power, with difficulties," says the expert. Added to this the imbalance in the trade balance, the deterioration of Sino-American relations and recently the war in Ukraine, the time of the "friend Chirac" seems far away.

Strategy of the "at the same time"

However, Emmanuel Macron wants to try to return to Franco-Chinese relations much more "peaceful and constructive". "The Élysée is in a logic of openness by wishing to put China back around the table. It's delicate and a little naïve," says Emmanuel Véron. A logic that the French president intends to carry out thanks to his famous strategy of "at the same time", analyzes Françoise Nicolas, director of the Asia Center at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri).

"After abandoning the idea of a democratic China, he still wants to try to evolve it in other aspects." Especially on the economic front, where he hopes for more reciprocity. It is therefore necessary "to be able to speak a little firmly to China to make it understand that it must evolve," says Françoise Nicolas. On the diplomatic level, Emmanuel Macron will be less firm, "more accommodating", because he wants the second world power to play a diplomatic role, especially in Ukraine. "He's going to play on two fronts, which is far from easy."

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With or without Europe?

To convince China to go in its direction, the France must necessarily go through a coalition of European countries to show that it "is not alone". "Today, the Franco-Chinese relationship can only be improved across Europe. We must highlight European unity, it is the only way to be listened to," said Françoise Nicolas. Especially since the European Union remains China's largest trading partner.

Concretely, this must go through "the definition of a clear industrial, political and military line in the face of the Chinese subject," explains Emmanuel Véron. To get China moving, "we would need the same European convergence as that vis-à-vis Ukraine". Which at present, "is easier said than done," admits Françoise Nicolas. For Emmanuel Lincot, this convergence is "almost impossible" to put in place "when we know the antagonisms between France and Germany over China". In addition, Ursula Von der Lyen is far from being "the best friend" of the Chinese, given her recent speeches and the one she held on Thursday in Beijing.

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In such a context, Paris must take the "lead", according to Emmanuel Lincot. Member of the UN Security Council, long-standing Franco-Chinese relations, the only nuclear power of the EU. As the world's second largest maritime power, France is in a sufficiently important political and military situation. "These are very valuable assets. This is what allows us to differentiate ourselves from Europeans," continues the researcher who believes that France is the only one to have a capacity of impetus for all European countries. An opinion far from being shared by Françoise Nicolas, for whom the privileged relationship between France and China is illusory. "We like to believe this since De Gaulle's recognition of the People's Republic of China in 1964, but we are no longer a first-rate power," she said.

Sending a clear message

Apart from this European issue, the improvement of Franco-Chinese relations must go through the transmission of a clear message: we are allies of the United States, but we are not aligned. "China is not perceived as the United States. They put forward the concept of democracies against autocracies. This is a dichotomy that is not accepted in France. We are not in such a confrontational approach as them," explains Françoise Nicolas.

However, efforts should not be one-sided. "We agree that China should develop, but this development must take place under fair conditions, respecting the rules of the game, both at the commercial level, but also on other aspects such as human rights or respect for borders." A "give-and-take", easier said than done...