During his last visit to China in 2018, Emmanuel Macron promised to return every year. But the French president only returned once, at the end of 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic and restrictive measures thwarted this promise. For the first time in three and a half years, Emmanuel Macron is visiting Beijing again, from 5 to 8 April. And he is not going alone: the president brings in his wake an areopagus of business leaders quick to consolidate economic relations between the two countries. No less than sixty bosses of French companies, including those of Airbus, EDF, Alstom or Veolia, are traveling. With contract signatures expected, suggested the French executive without further details.

Since the signing, on May 6, 2019, of the action plan for Franco-Chinese relations aimed at rebalancing bilateral economic exchanges, "the trade deficit has never been so large between the two countries, Chinese investment in France has been reduced to the minimum and the France is still struggling to diversify its partners," comments Antoine Bondaz. researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) and professor at Sciences Po. Emmanuel Macron hopes to encourage "better access to the Chinese market" and "fair conditions of competition," said his entourage.

A weakened president?

But this trip is above all of a highly political and diplomatic nature. This is also the reason why Emmanuel Macron is also on the road alongside the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. The French president came to Beijing above all to seek a "space" for dialogue with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on the war in Ukraine. "China is the only country in the world capable of having an immediate and radical impact on the conflict, one way or the other," the Elysee said.

>> Watch: Emmanuel Macron in China: Paris will work for a "return to peace" in Ukraine

If the France hoped a few weeks ago to convince the Chinese president to exert his "influence" on his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin for a negotiated solution to the conflict in Ukraine, Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow on March 20 has dampened the hopes of the West. During their meeting, the two leaders visibly on the same wavelength praised their "special" relationship and made numerous attacks on the West.

If Emmanuel Macron has had to lower his ambitions, he keeps the objective of convincing his Chinese counterpart not to cross the red line by supplying weapons to Russia. To do this, he has a few cards to play. In addition to his perseverance – the Élysée ensures that he is one of the few heads of state who "can discuss six, seven hours" with Chinese President Xi Jinping to plead the cause of peace – the French president intends to capitalize on the European bloc. While relations between Washington and Beijing have deteriorated considerably since the Chinese spy balloon episode two months ago, Europe can position itself as an alternative power capable of establishing its own strategy with China. With the support of Ursula von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron intends to "bring all its weight to bear on the European Union," says Elvire Fabry, a researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute in charge of the geopolitics of trade. But the French head of state will have to play the balancing act. "Nor must European unity be achieved at the expense of transatlantic relations or, more broadly, cooperation with our partners," notes Antoine Bondaz.

Confronting China with its contradictions

The tenor of the speech of the two European leaders could also take on the appearance of a warning. It is not excluded that the European couple reminds the Chinese leader that the good understanding between Europe and China does not go without certain conditions to respect vis-à-vis Moscow. In other words, "if China delivers weapons to Russia, there will be consequences on the European side, in the form of sanctions," explains Antoine Bondaz. And this is precisely what China seeks to avoid."

The France should also take a position on the nuclear issue. Russia's decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is a powerful argument that can lead China to dissociate itself from Moscow. "China has always opposed the deployment of weapons abroad and the sharing of nuclear weapons, which it presents as a form of proliferation," said Antoine Bondaz. The France, as a nuclear power, has a role to play. It is legitimate to ask China for its position on the subject and indirectly confront it with its contradictions. 'Why criticise the US when Russia is about to do the same?' Asking the question is in itself a political act. But we have to be realistic, it is unlikely that Xi Jinping will comment on this issue."

Possible gestures from Beijing

On the other hand, it is possible that the Chinese number one "sends a number of positive signals," says researcher Elvire Fabry. "Firstly because China fears too great a rapprochement between the Americans and the Europeans. It could therefore show that it is making efforts to maintain good relations with Europe." Then for pragmatic reasons: "Beijing is currently struggling to boost its domestic consumption and achieve its goals of self-sufficiency. To alleviate the mistrust that has developed towards it in recent years, it could embark on a charm operation vis-à-vis European investors."

Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen could finally discuss the issue of human rights and in particular the fate that China reserves for the Uighurs. The Elysee assured that the case of "relatives of French nationals who are in Xinjiang" denouncing a sharp repression in this region will be addressed.

So many thorny subjects. "Any misguided phrase will be exploited for sure by China. The Élysée teams are aware of this. But knowing does not prevent missteps, concludes Antoine Bondaz. It's a meeting that offers some opportunities and a lot of risks."

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