The conservatives and liberals are neck and neck after new legislative elections on Sunday 2nd April in Bulgaria, an election also marked by a rise of the pro-Russian camp in the shadow of the war in Ukraine.

This is the worst-case scenario, believes Evelina Slavkova, an analyst at the research firm Trend: "the closer the results, the harder it will be to form a stable government," she told Nova Television, as the Balkan country voted for the fifth time in two years.

The conservative Gerb party of former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov is credited with a very slight lead (from 24 to 26%) on the liberal list led by former centrist leader Kiril Petkov (around 23/24%), according to projections published in the evening by four polling institutes on the basis of partial counts. Official figures will not be known until later in the week.

Far from the hopes born of the wave of anti-corruption protests in the summer of 2020, this state of 6.5 million inhabitants, the poorest in the EU, is sinking into a costly political crisis unprecedented since the end of communism in 1990.

"More trust in person"

Since the fall of Boyko Borissov after a decade in power, the various parties have failed to build a lasting coalition. A slump accentuated by the conflict in Ukraine in a society historically and culturally close to Moscow, which is torn over the aid to be provided to Kiev.

The young pro-Russian ultra-nationalist party Vazrazhdane (Renaissance) took advantage of this geopolitical context to continue its rise: it won 13 to 14% of the vote, against 10% in the October election. It refuses any arms deliveries to Kiev and openly defends the ideology of the Kremlin, as do the socialists of the PSB (9 to 10%), heir to the former Communist Party that once ruled the country.

Abstention was again very high on Sunday, although lower than in the previous vote: the turnout is estimated at only 40%. And those who have moved said they have run out of patience. "I vow a stable government, you understand?" said Boyan Sapunov, a 79-year-old pensioner fed up with the succession of interim governments, while Krassimir Naydenov, a 57-year-old employee, said he "no longer trusts anyone".

For expert Andrey Raychev of Gallup International, "the war in Ukraine, galloping inflation, pressure from Western partners" should theoretically push the country's first forces, both pro-Western, to agree.

Impossible agreement?

But Lukas Macek, associate researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute for Central and Eastern Europe, says he is "sceptical about a possible outcome unless Boyko Borissov withdraws", judging "worrying this spiral of elections". "We find the same pattern as in other Central European countries: a former leader who hangs on, while the other parties refuse to ally with him, without having much in common elsewhere."

He warned against new elections. "It would be suicidal, most people are calling for an end to instability," warned Boyko Borissov, 63, who came to vote in jeans. The man whose image as a man of the people has been tarnished by suspicions of corruption failed to form a government for lack of allies last autumn, after winning the elections.

His rival and sworn enemy, Kiril Petkov, 42, hoped that Bulgaria would finally have access to "the life of a normal European country" and that its citizens would stop emigrating.

If this vote is not conclusive, the Bulgarians will have to deal with a new interim cabinet appointed by President Rumen Radev, himself fiercely opposed to sending weapons to Ukraine. Even if in fact the factories have been operating at full capacity since the Russian invasion and indirectly export munitions via third countries.

With AFP

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