General elections in Finland: the Prime Minister plays her re-election in a close election

Very popular internationally, Prime Minister Sanna Marin is more divisive in her country. Here in Vantaa, March 31. AP - Vesa Moilanen

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The popular Finnish Social Democrat Prime Minister Sanna Marin will try this Sunday, April 2, to win a second mandate against her rivals of the right and the extreme right in a general elections that promise to be very close.

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In the polls, this Sunday's legislative elections are being played out in a pocket handkerchief. According to the latest poll published on Thursday the National Coalition (centre-right) is due to come out ahead with 19.8% ahead of the Finns party – anti-immigration and eurosceptic – at 19.5%, then the SDP of present Prime Minister Sanna Marin at 18.7%. Tiny deviations that are within the margin of error. However, the order of arrival is crucial, because the post of Prime Minister in Finland traditionally falls to the leader of the party that comes out ahead.

At 37 years old, the head of government leads her camp for the first time in the electoral battle. Unknown, even to a good part of Finns, when she came to power at the end of 2019, the former Minister of Transport has built a worldwide reputation, with her title – since lost – of the youngest leader in the world. Making headlines for her tough stance against Russia, she is now seen as one of the leading figures of Europe's young guard. To the point that his name is circulating for posts in Brussels in case of defeat this Sunday.

In Finland, on the other hand, it splits. Some appreciate the determined leader who has successfully steered her country through the Covid-19 pandemic and NATO membership, and who does not want to be reduced to the status of a young woman. For others, she is "Sanna the party girl", whose attachment to keeping a young life, between evenings in clubs and parties at the official residence, harms the function. His opponents also accuse him of having spent lavishly and increased the public debt from 63% to 74% in four years. His government is also preparing costly support measures to help households facing high energy bills.

Difficult negotiations

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The outgoing Prime Minister does not care about the economy. She doesn't worry about debts," said National Coalition leader Petteri Orpo. He intends to "rehabilitate" the country's economy. "I want to stimulate economic growth, because only economic growth will allow us to take care of our services, public services and security," he said. While negotiations to form a government after these elections are expected to be difficult, the National Coalition party could make an alliance with Sana Marin's SPD or sign a more rightward turn by allying itself with the Finns party.

While the three main parties are able to improve on their 2019 score, the Finns party has recorded the strongest gains since last summer, taking advantage of anti-immigration sentiment and inflationary surges. For its lead candidate, Riikka Purra, this immigration would be the cause of juvenile delinquency and street crime, which she considers to be the main problems facing the country. "Most of these gangs and young criminals on the streets are migrants or people with an immigrant background," she said.

The Finns party sees leaving the EU as a long-term goal and wants to push back the country's carbon neutrality goal, currently set for 2035. He was already in government before a split in 2017 that saw a more radical line prevail. But if he came out ahead on Sunday, it would be a first that could see him beat his electoral record (19.05% in 2011). And yet another squall on the European political scene.

Another party to watch is the Centre Party. Once a heavyweight in Finnish politics, it went from first party in 2015 to its lowest ever, after having been for eight years in the executives of the right and then the left. Even in the – probable – event of a pitiful score, his choice of alliance promises to be crucial, because without him, the right and the far right have little chance of building a majority.

The election precedes by a few days a date that will be historic for Finland, with an entry into NATO that could take place next week. But the election result is unlikely to derail the process, as all major parties are now advocates of entry into the Atlantic Alliance, a tipping point caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

(

And with AFP)

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