Climate migration: in Africa, "displacement will tend to take place within countries"

Two migrants in the middle of the Sudanese desert. © Getty Images/ David Du Plessis

Text by: Charlotte Cosset Follow

3 min

In its "African Mutations" document released this week, the Global Centre for Climate Mobility documents the current realities of migration on the continent due to climate change and future scenarios. Interview with Sarah Rosengaertner, Senior Advisor at this research centre.

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RFI: Up to 5% of Africa's population could be displaced by 2050 because of climate change, notes the Global Centre for Climate Mobility. That's up to 113 million people. Where do you project to move populations threatened by extreme weather events?

Sarah Rosengaertner: Our projections did not model migration to Europe, but what they do show is that displacement will rather take place within countries. More than 90% of people will move within their own country. And most people actually go to small towns that are close to where they come from. We do not see waves of movement moving long distances. There are projections for cross-border migration: 1.2 million people will move across borders and that is within the African continent.

More specifically, in which areas will be affected by departures and arrivals of populations?

There are so-called climate mobility hotspots. These are points of high concentration, movements, either entry or exit. And these hotspots appear all over the continent, especially in the Sahelian zone, along the coasts and in cities. Border areas are becoming hotspots, between Niger and Nigeria for example, around Lake Victoria and also in the Horn of Africa. Rural areas will see farmers leave river plains, and pastoral land could experience significant population displacement.

In the cities of Africa, there is also a lot of dynamism throughout the continent. Cities will grow rapidly, but continent-wide, climate impacts could force around four million people out of urban areas. There are, for example, Casablanca, Accra and Abidjan, cities that should see their inhabitants leave because of climate impacts. But in most small African cities, we see that climate mobility will add to population growth. And major cities such as Khartoum, Maputo, Goma, Tripoli and Kigali are also emerging as important destinations for climate mobility.

Are some categories of people moving more than others?

It can be said that the young and the most educated say they are the most ready to move and see opportunities related to the movement. Women are less eager to move. Age is also an important factor. The oldest are the least able to move, the most attached also to their place, their community and way of life. There is also a profession factor. Communities whose way of life is rooted in the land, fishing, ranching and everything related to an ecosystem will have a much harder time moving. Especially because it is their way of life and their cultural identity.

Should we prepare for climate mobility?

We really see that climate mobility may be a means of adapting to the climate, but it requires support and planning. Not everyone can access mobility and there is a risk that people will not be able to move while they are in very vulnerable conditions. So we'll really have to look at how mobility can be managed to help people adapt to climate change and also how to prepare communities that will be in attractive places to be in a position to welcome new residents.

Extreme and variable climatic phenomena according to the regions of Africa

It is increasingly common to talk about refugees or climate displaced people. Over the past decade, there have been an estimated 21.5 million new displacements each year worldwide due to climate events – more than twice as many as displacement caused by conflict and violence. And the African continent is not spared. It is one of the most vulnerable while it has been the one that has contributed the least to global warming...

The phenomena of climate change that push people to move are very different in different regions of the continent. Some regions are particularly affected by extreme temperature events, associated with droughts. This is the case in East Africa, which has seen a succession of insufficient rainy seasons. Southern Madagascar is also suffering from acute drought. A problem also very present in North Africa. Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco and Libya experienced extreme heat, which was accompanied by fires. As well as sandstorms and dust. The year 2021 was one of the hottest years on record on the continent, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

Some freshwater supplies are dwindling. This is the case in practice with the area of Lake Chad, which was reduced to a crawl between the 1960s and 2000. In West Africa, it is the decline in river flow that is observed. On the contrary, other regions experienced intense rains, and severe flooding. This is the case in South Africa or Nigeria. Or South Sudan, which has seen the level of its lakes and rivers rise for several consecutive years. In addition, sea level rise along Africa's coasts is faster than the global average, particularly on the Red Sea and in the south-western Indian Ocean.

In general, the continent is experiencing an intensification of extreme weather events. The most recent is Cyclone Freddy, which hit southern Africa twice in a few weeks and caused heavy human and material losses.

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