Analysis

Cameroon: an air of celebration at the time of internal battles for the succession of Paul Biya

Cameroonian President Paul Biya, December 13, 2022, in Washington, during a summit of African leaders. Getty Images via AFP - KEVIN DIETSCH

Text by: Valentin Zinga Follow

6 min

On March 24, the Cameroonian People's Democratic Rally (CPDM) celebrated its 38th anniversary, in a euphoric atmosphere, following its total victory in the senatorial elections held twelve days earlier. Neither the pomp of the ceremonies, nor the unity displayed, nor even the "calls" addressed to the national president of the ruling party to run in the presidential election scheduled for 2025, could not make us forget the struggles for his succession that are taking place within the governing bloc.

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From our correspondent in Yaoundé,

On March 23 in Ahala, a neighborhood in the south of Yaoundé, the capital of Cameroon, the straw hat of Professor Hubert Mono Ndjana, on which is engraved in several places the emblem of the CPDM, is placed on an armchair, next to a cane, in his residence. The former national secretary for communication of the ruling party, who became a "simple militant" following various misfortunes, is physically diminished, but has lost none of his intellectual vivacity. He assumes a kind of critical activism. His party celebrates its 38th anniversary on the theme: "Rejoicing, gathering and mobilization behind the national president, Paul Biya, in full awareness of future electoral challenges and issues".

"Rejoicing", largely justified by the victory of the CPDM, which won all 70 senatorial seats put in competition during the elections of March 12, to the point of forcing the parties of "presidential majority" and those of the opposition to hope to see their militants on the list of thirty senators who will be appointed by the President of the Republic, with a view to the full composition of the upper house of Parliament. "Instead of celebrating, I think we should regret this victory, which is so total that it borders on the inability of the party to organize the political game. The CPDM was a bit gluttonous. While he stuffs his stomach, he empties his credibility. We must leave the ventilation, to play the dialectic of the opposition, instead of massively occupying all the space, "criticizes the philosopher.

Political manoeuvring

As for the "electoral challenges and issues", they refer to the municipal, legislative and presidential elections scheduled for 2025. However, while waiting for these deadlines, Paul Biya's party has been living, for some years, to the rhythm of political maneuvers comparable to an increasingly violent war of succession. "In the observation of the recent history of our country, we can not fail to observe that there is grumbling for a longevity of forty years that visibly borders on excess," confirms Hubert Mono Ndjana. This war of succession can no longer be read only between the lines. The local press is, in many ways, a privileged site for observing political jousting. Clans with spectacular support from media outlets are identifiable.

The media, obviously requisitioned, appear willingly laudatory for their "champions", and simultaneously impetuous towards their opponents. Some of the regime's hierarchs are at the top of the bill. We see Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, Minister of State, Secretary General of the Presidency of the Republic. We also note the presence of Laurent Esso, Minister of State, Minister of Justice, Keeper of the Seals, very close to Jean-Pierre Amougou Belinga, press magnate charged and placed under arrest warrant for "complicity in torture" in the case of the murder of journalist Martinez Zogo. Also present are: Samuel Mvondo Ayolo, Minister, Director of the Civil Cabinet of the Presidency of the Republic; Paul Atanga Nji, Minister of Territorial Administration, and, to some extent, Louis-Paul Motaze, Minister of Finance. All, of course, do not miss any opportunity to reaffirm their loyalty to President Paul Biya. None of them recognize themselves in the speculations that announce them engaged in the race for the succession of the President of the Republic.

► Read also: Paul Biya: sixty years in the mysteries of power, forty years of crisis management in Cameroon

This atmosphere does not leave observers indifferent, like Claude Abé, professor of sociology at the Catholic University of Central Africa (UCAC), who proposes three keys to understanding the struggles for succession within the governing bloc: "The first is the advanced age of the President of the Republic (which) has allowed some to install in the collective imagination the idea of an imminent end of reign. This fantasy had the effect of bringing some contenders out of their reserves and the conglomerate of clans united in the same block to fragment to give rise to rivalries around the succession. Second key: President Biya, who has benefited from the technique of the dauphinate to access power, has so far remained discreet on the question of his succession, leaving then the possibility of emerging. Third key: there is a change in the place of Frank Biya [eldest son of the head of state, Editor's note] in the protocol system which suggests that the head of state himself seems to feed these tensions between clans.

Family succession?

Increasingly, Frank Biya's name is associated with speculation about his father's estate. A movement called "Frankists" committed to his cause held activities in broad daylight. On February 11, on the occasion of the "youth day", young people wearing t-shirts bearing the image of the eldest son of the head of state participated in the parade of circumstance in some localities of the country. More recent "sign": the visibility of Frank Biya, installed in the front row, in the room of the "Palace of Unity", which housed the work of the fifteenth ordinary session of the summit of heads of state of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC), held in Yaoundé on March 17. "There is no longer any doubt about the desire for succession from father to son. But, nevertheless, other factions are organizing and, after a period of latency, it is these factions that will wake up with unprecedented brutality. It is visible that the money that is amassed left and right, on dimensions that go beyond human needs, can only be used as war funds. A real war and not small rebellions. When they want a family to stop running the country after the father's gaze, the first step will be to get rid of a family's long history," warns Hubert Mono Ndjana.

Paradox (apparent?): these struggles around inheritance issues are animated even as supporters of President Paul Biya issue loud "calls", asking him to run in the next presidential election, scheduled for 2025, when their champion will be 92 years old. According to Claude Abe, in the current conditions, "the calls for the candidacy of Paul Biya become instruments of the game between the clans in ambush. It is, on the one hand, to show one's unwavering loyalty and, on the other, to kick a side that is too eager to move on. The other hypothesis is that these calls express a demand for the status quo for those who benefit from the weakening of the president under the blow of age. So there is very little sincerity in these appeals."

In the past, President Paul Biya has always favored the technique of late responses to such "calls". Will he change his attitude? We will have to wait and see.

► Read also: In the headlines: the 90 years of Paul Biya

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