Protests and dismissals. Has Israel's internal conflict reached a point of no return?

JERUSALEM – The widening protests in Israel against the plan for judicial amendments, led by the government of Benjamin Netanyahu, reflect the internal crisis and polarization, the deepening rift in Israeli society, political and partisan conflict, and the growing state of division.

Analysts and think tanks agree that Israeli society, which has entered an unprecedented state of conflict over the identity of the Jewish state and the Zionist project and its future features, will not return to what it was.

They argue that the rift in Israeli society, the protests, the division in the army and security institutions, and the repercussions of the division on the economy, banking and academia will lead to a divided Israeli society that has no consensus on any issue, even with regard to national security.

Is it chaos?

Regarding the repercussions of the judicial amendments and protests on the military institution and the army, security and military affairs analyst Ofer Shelah said that the widening of the demonstrations and the rejection of the amendments by the dismissed Defense Minister Yoav Galant and the demand for their suspension reflect concerns and risks to the army unit.

Shelah believes that Galant's knowledge of the dangers and repercussions of the judicial amendments on the military and the military institution prompted him to declare his position demanding that the passage of these amendments be stopped by the Knesset.

Shelah explained to Al Jazeera Net that the protests could reach the ranks of the army, not only to the reserve forces, which obliges the chiefs of staff to face the refusal to appear for reserve service or evade military service.

The security and military affairs analyst is concerned that the People's Army could fragment if the rift in Israeli society widens as a result of the lack of dialogue between the ruling coalition and opposition parties.

The extent to which these protests will be unpredictable is unpredictable, as current events suggest that Israel is heading towards chaos in the absence of responsible and inclusive leadership.

The same proposition is adopted by Idit Shafran Gettleman, head of the "Army and Society" program at the Israel Democracy Institute and a researcher at the Center for National Security Research of Tel Aviv University, who confirmed – in an assessment of the position received by Al Jazeera Net a copy of it – that "when there is a rift in Israeli society, this reflects negatively on the military institution and the army."

With regard to the strength of the army in light of the protests and the plan of legislative reforms in the judiciary, Geitelman believes that the army cannot be separated from what is happening in Israeli society, as the civilian space is mixed with the military, and therefore the state of fragmentation and internal conflicts contribute to the cracking of the statement "The Israeli army is the army of the people."

Gittleman does not rule out that internal conflict, political division and societal fragmentation will contribute to undermining confidence in the army, losing its field capabilities with the erosion of deterrence, noting that the refusal to serve the reserve and military sparring is the beginning of fragmentation within the military institution, which is like a rolling snowball that cannot predict where it will reach politically and militarily.

The beginning of the end

Political and partisan affairs analyst Mohammad Majadleh believes that the worsening political crisis in Israel indicates that the protests marked the beginning of the end for Netanyahu's government, which means that any decision he makes will be met with internal opposition in the Likud party, and then opposition within the ruling coalition, which is an indication of the march towards toppling the government and heading towards new elections.

He explained arguing to Al Jazeera Net that the expansion of protests in Israeli society – expressed through strikes and demonstrations of what was called "national paralysis" – indicates that this is the last term of Netanyahu, and that he will not return to the prime minister's chair.

He does not rule out arguing the scenario of overthrowing Netanyahu's government, which has become "fragile and heterogeneous and governed by internal differences," adding that even if the government maintains its cohesion, it will be weak and unable to make fateful or strategic decisions.

In light of the widening protests, divisions and fragmentation in the Israeli political scene, the political and partisan affairs analyst believes that the survival of this government means more strikes and uncertainty about the future.

It is not excluded that Netanyahu, who is facing trial for corruption and breach of trust, will adopt more provocative decisions towards the Palestinians and export the internal crisis with a military strike on Iran.

He explained that what is happening in Israel has gone beyond the rejection of the judicial amendment plan led by Justice Minister Yariv Levin, and has become a struggle for governance and the identity of the Jewish state, and therefore the protests may lead to the creation of a new Israel.

He pointed out that the protests may produce a new political camp that will lead Israel out of its crisis and take into account the Palestinian cause and neighboring countries. He also does not rule out the return of Likud to form a new government without Netanyahu, as the data showed that he is the problem and not the solution.