Analysis

China: Why does Honduras have no choice but to break with Taiwan?

Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina Garcia and his Chinese counterpart Qin Gang shake hands after the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, in Beijing, this Sunday, March 26, 2023. AP - Greg Baker

Text by: RFI Follow

3 min

Only thirteen countries officially recognize the Republic of China, the official name of Taiwan. Honduras has officially severed all diplomatic ties, after 82 years of relations, to turn to Beijing. A new victory for the communist regime, which for several years has been pursuing a strategy of diplomatic isolation of the archipelago, a "rebel province" in its eyes.

Advertising

Read more

Honduras joined on Sunday, March 26, the vast majority of states in the world that have decided to choose Beijing rather than Taipei. This is the result of an aggressive policy by China which, in addition to economic and military pressure, aims to diplomatically isolate Taiwan, which it considers a rebellious province.

No sooner had the formalization been launched than Beijing had already sent an official invitation for a state visit to the Honduran president. And China, through its Foreign Minister Qin Gang, issued a warning to the Taiwanese government and its promotion of separatism, doomed to stalemate, according to him.

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, for her part, denounced China's "coercion and intimidation", as well as financial promises, "economic friendliness". Since this rather pro-independence leader came to power in 2016, Honduras is the 9th country to turn its back on Taipei.

I do not read any factually specific article on the subject

Honduras 🇭🇳 has not established diplomatic relations with China, it already 🫠

had one The country now just considers that China is represented by the People's 🇨🇳 Republic and no longer by the Republic 🇹🇼 https://t.co/6MHpQOnHax

— Antoine Bondaz (@AntoineBondaz) March 26, 2023

"Taiwan, eventually, will have almost no diplomatic relations"

« 

We have continuous pressure and countries that, one after the other, establish relations with Beijing and break them with Taipei, confirms Antoine Bondaz, director of the Taiwan program at the Foundation for Strategic Research. Especially in the Pacific, but also in America and even in Africa.

And the teacher at Science Po to recall that the State of São Tomé and Principe has also, for example, chosen to consider the People's Republic as the emanation of China rather than the Republic of China. "A fundamental trend", according to the researcher, with a probable consequence: "Taiwan, in the long term, will have almost no diplomatic relations.

Not having diplomatic relations does not mean not being a state, he warns. Not being part of the UN either. In fact, today, the archipelago focuses above all on "the development and deepening of concrete cooperation rather than on the symbolic aspect of diplomatic relations".

We see it every day, for example between European states and Taiwan: cooperation is deepening, cooperation is multiplying. Witness for example the visit of the German Minister of Education and Research to Taipei only a few days ago.

Antoine Bondaz, director of the Taiwan program at the FRS and professor at Sciences Po

Anastasia Becchio

"Western democracies did it in the 1960s or 1970s"

We can understand the choice of many small countries on this subject, adds Antoine Bondaz. The states that still have diplomatic relations with Taiwan today are, he recalls, "generally small states, Caribbean islands, Pacific islands, or Central American states".

« When they choose between the economic and commercial benefits of establishing relations with Beijing, rather than maintaining them with Taipei, it is usually done quickly. On this ground, Taiwan does not have, in quotation marks, the "room for maneuver" today or the political weight to stand up to China. »

It is quite logical, says Mr. Bondaz, for the countries of the international community to have diplomatic relations with one of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, the world's second largest economy and a major, growing power on the international scene.

It is difficult today to blame Honduras, or yesterday the Solomon Islands or Kiribati, for having re-established diplomatic relations with the People's Republic, even though Western democracies did so in the 1960s or 1970s.

Antoine Bondaz, director of the Taiwan program at the FRS and professor at Sciences Po

Anastasia Becchio

The announcement of the day comes as the Taiwanese president is scheduled to begin a tour of Central America on Wednesday. Tsai Ing-wen is due to visit two countries still allies: Belize and Guatemala, before a likely stop in the United States. A decisive tour for Taipei's diplomacy, more isolated than ever.

► READ ALSO: Honduras establishes diplomatic relations with China and breaks with Taiwan

Newsletter Receive all the international news directly in your mailbox

I subscribe

Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application

Read on on the same topics:

• Honduras
• China
• Taiwan
• Diplomacy
• Tsai Ing-wen
• Xiomara Castro