Pension reform in France: MPs face motions of censure, government waiting

Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne speaks at the National Assembly on March 16, 2023. AP - Thomas Padilla

Text by: Valérie Gas Follow

3 min

MPs vote this Monday, March 20 in the afternoon on the motions of censure tabled against the government. Elisabeth Borne committed her responsibility to her government after the use of article 49.3 on pension reform. This is the last step in the parliamentary process of pension reform and the last chance for the oppositions to reject this project. For the presidential camp, this day and the future look tough.

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Two motions of censure, tabled Friday, March 17 the day after the recourse to article 49.3 of the Constitution, are submitted to the vote in the National Assembly this Monday: one of the National Rally, and a transpartisan motion of the independent group Liot (for Freedoms, Independents, Overseas and Territories).

The Nupes and the National Rally must vote for the latter, which should also be supported by some deputies Les Républicains opposed to the pension reform, even if Eric Ciotti, the president of the party, has given instructions not to vote on a motion of censure.

The question is: how many LR deputies will break this rule, and will the absolute majority be reached? There should be about thirty of them. This is not the most likely hypothesis. Moreover, in the majority, we want to be serene and even offensive by presenting this vote as a moment of "clarity", where everyone will have to take responsibility.

Still, even if the government does not fall on March 20 and the reform is therefore adopted, the majority is weakened. The Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, is in the hot seat. Emmanuel Macron, whose speech is expected, is under tension, with a popularity rating in significant fall.

Throughout the weekend, rallies were organized throughout the France to protest against the use of 49.3. Acts of violence were observed and elected officials were threatened during demonstrations outside the control of the unions. The latter launched an appeal for a day of mobilization on Thursday 23 March, after the vote on the motions of censure. Their objective: to show that, in any case, they do not intend to stop there. The page of the pension reform will not be turned on Monday evening. Neither politically nor socially.

What course will Emmanuel Macron take from now on?

If the last stage of the parliamentary process of the pension reform promises to be complicated for the executive, the really difficult maneuvers will begin later for Emmanuel Macron. This episode will leave traces on the social and political level. Several options are presented to the President of the Republic.

If the majority does not really fear the motions of censure of this Monday, March 20, a Renaissance parliamentarian considers the continuation with more pessimism. According to him, once this chapter of pensions is over, the National Assembly will enter a period of "latent motion of censure" where it will become difficult for the government to pass any text. A blockage that would make a dissolution "inexorable".

At this time, this is not an option. A minister believes that this would give "a bonus to the National Rally". There remain the tracks of a resignation of Elisabeth Borne and a reshuffle, as guarantees of change. But to put whom at Matignon, to carry out what policy and with what majority?

So many subjects on which Emmanuel Macron is expected. A speech by the Head of State is planned. But when? A member believes that we should not "levitate for 15 days", while a senator thinks that the president must give himself time to see how the situation develops, especially in the street, and concludes as if to reassure himself: "He will find something. After the Yellow Vests, he found the great debate.

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  • France
  • French politics
  • Employment and Labour
  • Social issues
  • Emmanuel Macron
  • Elisabeth Borne