I considered it "politicized and could ignite battles again." Why is Cairo warning against the UN initiative on Libya?

CAIRO – While the UN Security Council welcomed the initiative of UN envoy to Libya Abdullah Batili to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this summer, questions have been raised about why Cairo rejected the UN plan as "unfortunate and vague", after Egypt repeatedly called for the need for a settlement and elections to be held at the earliest opportunity.

After years of the Libyan crisis, Pateli threw a stone into the stagnant waters of Libyan politics, through an initiative that he said he did not rule out drawing up a road map for it by next June, warning that the continuation of the current situation would undermine the unity of Libya's territory and people.

Immediately after the presentation of the initiative, welcome international positions came from Washington, Paris, Britain and other capitals, while the Egyptian position was opposed, in addition to a Russian rejection that was reflected in the speech of the Moscow representative during a previous session of the Security Council.

To translate the dimensions of the Egyptian rejection of the UN plan, Al Jazeera Net sought to extrapolate its causes and repercussions from experts and stakeholders, and is this due to Egypt's position on the government of Tripoli and the Libyan House of Representatives, or there are other dimensions, and what is the Egyptian vision to resolve the Libyan crisis?

Egyptian fears that the initiative is part of Western efforts to combat the Russian role in Libya (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)

• Why does Egypt reject Batili's initiative?

Egyptian experts – spoke with Al Jazeera Net – agree that "Batelli's initiative increases the complexities of the Libyan scene, and the mission of the UN envoy in Libya has become questionable and exceeds the Libyan consensus, and represents a leap on the legitimate institutions in Libya, which may lead to the return of fabricating battles."

For his part, Ambassador Ezzat Saad, former assistant foreign minister of Egypt, stressed that "Batelli has become part of the problem and is no longer part of the solution, and his initiative further complicates and deteriorates the situation in Libya."

Saad, who is the executive director of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs (an independent diplomatic body), explained that the wording of the initiative is "ridiculous" and should not be adopted on a very complex crisis that has been in place for years, and therefore the reactions have witnessed a strong internal division over it.

The initiative talks about the formation of a high-level committee to organise the elections, which includes tribal leaders and security actors, he said. According to Saad, "these security parties are the militias that the various parties in Libya resort to."

Batili's initiative, according to the Egyptian diplomat, is a negative step that exacerbates the situation in Libya and deepens the existing division within the internal parties.

Square zero

Maj. Gen. Mohamed Abdel Wahed, an expert in international relations and national security, said the Libyan crisis is the worst of the region's crises due to its extreme complexity and external interference.

"On the one hand, the welcomers: the Tripoli government and some factions loyal to it, most of which are Islamist, in addition to the warlords in western Libya, who have interests in the survival of Abdelhamid Dabaiba at the expense of the national interest," he said. On the other hand, there is rejection from the East."

In the details of the initiative, he explained that the formation of a high-level committee completely ignores the existence of legitimate institutions in the state, the most important of which is the House of Representatives, pointing out that the call for the need to hold legislative and presidential elections during 2023 ignores the most important elements of the crisis, which is the illegal weapon held by some factions outside the authority of the state, including militias and mercenaries that make any government unable to carry out its mission.

In Abdul Wahid's opinion, the initiative ignores corruption, the waste of Libyan public funds, and the presence of foreign pressures and forces that influenced the elections in the past, "all of which are excesses that impede reaching consensual solutions between East and West, and will lead to further division even within the State Council itself."

He went on to say that "the mission of the UN envoy has become questionable, and some see it as completely politicized," explaining that it is fully compatible with the American vision, and therefore Western support for the initiative is part purely political and settling scores with Russia, which is present in the region and supports eastern Libya.

Abdul Wahid cited behavioral mistakes committed by Batili when he held a conference a few days ago in Tripoli, in which he said that the House of Representatives has expired and must be renewed, which is a step in the framework of complicating matters and interfering in Libyan affairs.

Beyond compatibility

Ahmed Sayed Ahmed, an expert in international relations at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies (governmental), said that his country rejects the initiative as it does not represent a step in the right direction towards advancing the political process, ending the crisis and holding elections, and that it bypasses the legitimate institutions represented by the Libyan parliament in Tobruk.

He predicted that Batili's experiment will not succeed in light of internal and external polarization, stressing that the Libyan consensus is the only guarantee for holding elections and accepting their results.

• Does the Egyptian rejection affect the UN moves?

Ambassador Ezzat Saad said that the divergence in positions reflects negatively on Libya, and regardless of the different external reactions to the Libyan situation, it remains important to see the internal parties of the initiative and its repercussions on their interests.

Accordingly, Saad pointed out that his country is not betting on anyone, but that the solution must be Libyan, in addition to that Cairo has fears of "suspicion of external tampering" in Libyan affairs.

He warned that Egypt sees in the presidential statement of the Security Council the keenness of parties to keep the situation in Libya as it is, including corruption and waste of wealth, and that the concerns of those parties are the continuation of pumping oil and increasing its revenues abroad in the context of the search for alternatives to Russian gas and oil.

In the same context, Sayed Ahmed believes that the UN and international movements in Libya will face great challenges for several reasons, the first of which is the lack of consensus on this path, after ignoring it from the existing political entities.

The second reason, according to the spokesman, is that there is an interest in mobilizing neighboring countries, especially Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria, and therefore the Egyptian role is of great importance to bring views closer, especially in the constitutional process, and in maintaining the ceasefire between East and West in place since October 2020.

Moreover, according to Sayed Ahmed, Egypt's message expresses real fears that the political track will deviate to another that would further complicate matters, prolong the crisis, and may ignite and ignite battles again.

Instead of forming a UN committee, the analyst says that Egypt is demanding the implementation of UN resolutions related to the removal of mercenaries and foreigners, who are the main obstacle to elections, and whose presence negatively affects Libya and Egypt's national security.

• Why was Egypt the first to welcome and support the thirteenth constitutional amendment in Libya?

Egypt played a prominent role in facilitating talks between the House of Representatives and the High Council of State, with the Security Council commending the gradual progress made on the constitutional framework for elections and the Thirteenth Amendment to the Constitutional Declaration, to make the system of government a legislative and executive authority headed by an elected president.

In this regard, Major General Abdul Wahid pointed out that his country knows that prolonging the conflict complicates the situation and increases external ambitions, stressing that his country welcomes any constitution that covers the institutional frameworks for completing elections, through a Libyan-Libyan solution that accelerates stability.

Political analyst Sayed Ahmed said there is an Egyptian interest in accelerating the constitutional process, citing his country's hosting of meetings as a neutral body that provides the environment for its success without imposing its vision, conditions or a specific formula on it.

He pointed out that the Libyan constitutional process witnessed great progress in Cairo with international and American recognition, and it guaranteed at least a minimum level of consensus between the various parties, and represents a guarantee for the holding of elections and their results for the existence of a constitutional basis acceptable to all.

• Will Egypt's position on Batelli's initiative widen the gap with the Tripoli government?

General Abdel Wahid argues that Dabaiba's government should look purely objectively at the Libyan interest, consolidate institutions and establish a new national state, take the Egyptian vision into account and open channels of communication with Cairo.

He also called on them to recognize all other factions on the scene, and to have consensual compromises and political settlements, and "not to bully the West and exploit international liquidity" to achieve its interests at the expense of national interests.

• What are the repercussions of Egypt's rejection on its interests and its interaction with supporters of the initiative?

Political expert Sayed Ahmed believes that the Egyptian rejection does not mean a break or lack of communication with the various international parties supporting the initiative or the actor, but rather clarifying the risks of moving forward with it.

He predicted that the initiative will be doomed to failure as in previous initiatives, as it does not reflect the Libyan consensus even if elections are held, because it did not address the constitutional and political frameworks from the beginning.

It is believed that Egypt, with its channels and capabilities, will communicate with the actors and supporters of the initiative, to clarify the reality of the rejection, its fears, dimensions and repercussions on the Libyan scene, stressing the need for an international movement in light of the prevailing stalemate.