It finds itself facing a political and social crisis, with a more limited margin of rebound than during the Yellow Vests, for lack of majority and renewal capital after six years in power.

Motion of censure: voted or rejected?

By activating article 49.3 of the Constitution to force through the pension reform, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne is playing double or quit: if the motions of censure tabled Friday by the opposition are rejected, the reform will be considered adopted. If one of them is passed, the government falls.

Appeals to 49.3 © Sabrina BLANCHARD / AFP

In view of the arithmetic in the Assembly, the vote of a motion of censure, which requires an absolute majority of seats, i.e. 287 votes, seems unlikely.

It would be necessary, in addition to the votes of the National Rally and the Nupes, that 25 to 30 deputies The Republicans, almost half of the group, vote for it, a bar that seems very high even if this group has deprived the executive of majority on the text of pensions.

After the cold shower of 49.3 and the spectacle of a powerless Prime Minister in the Assembly, the voice covered by boos and the Marseillaise sung in the spans of the opposition, the greatest caution seems however in order. "On the motion, we are not sure to have a rejection, it will be complicated," said an adviser to the executive.

Elisabeth Borne: on borrowed time?

With these seven minutes of intense tension around Elisabeth Borne at the Assembly, "we witnessed one of the most important events of the Fifth Republic in terms of images. We can't get over it like that easily," said political analyst Bruno Cautrès.

Elisabeth Borne on the set of TF1 on March 16, 2023 © Ludovic MARIN / AFP

The Prime Minister, who carried the reform, appears very weakened, if not on probation.

"The least risky for the head of state and the most likely to give him a new impetus is the change of Prime Minister," says Bruno Cautrès, while believing that "it can not be done under pressure".

"We must not clear Borne after the motion of censure, we must not show our weaknesses, we must continue to move forward," adds an adviser to the executive.

For political analyst Brice Teinturier, "even in the event of a change of Prime Minister, if the line remains the same, it will not change anything for the French."

The potential contenders are biding their time, from the Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin to that of the Economy Bruno Le Maire, both defectors from the LR.

Dissolution, the atomic weapon

The Head of State may also opt for a more radical scenario, the dissolution of the Assembly, to start again on new bases.

"When you are at this point in a cycle of unpopularity and rejection of a major reform, it is almost suicidal," said Brice Teinturier, pointing to the risk of an even narrower majority.

But to continue without an absolute majority, "it will still be difficult", with oppositions tempted by a permanent "guerrilla war", he adds. "In fact he only has bad solutions at his disposal."

- A speech when? -

After leaving Elisabeth Borne in the front line, distilling only a few messages by entourage interposed at the most critical moments, the president will have to break his silence.

No date or format - speech or interview - has yet been communicated. But the window looks narrow in the coming days, between the vote on the motion of censure, probably on Monday, and the European summit on Thursday and Friday.

"He will undoubtedly make Macron, that is to say a very beautiful speech on TV with a lot of solemnity," anticipates Bruno Cautrès, for whom, over time, these speeches lose "effectiveness".

According to one of the executive councillors cited, it will be necessary to "make the round back, the time that the mobilization decreases" - by the spring holidays he hopes - then come out with "some priorities".

The head of state is already preparing for other subjects, health, education, immigration, more likely to convince the French, as well as an ambitious reform of institutions.

© 2023 AFP