After a pension reform adopted by forceps via the 100th procedure of 49.3 of the Fifth Republic, the opposition to the bill does not disarm. They still hope to make the government back down before its law is enacted.

Like the left-wing coalition Nupes, they hope to use "all the means at its disposal" to defeat the contested pension reform, from support for the social movement to a referendum of shared initiative through motions of censure and the Constitutional Council.

• Consideration of motions of censure

In the wake of 49.3, two motions of censure were tabled. One comes from the National Rally group; the other, from the group Libertés, Indépendants Outre-mer et Territoires (Liot), is being watched like milk on fire by the government.

Indeed, supported by the Nupes, this motion of censure, because it appears to be transpartisan, is the most likely to be adopted. The small catch-all group thus finds itself in the position of pivot of the oppositions because of its centrist and moderate positioning, with a motion that can win the votes of the left, the far right or even some Republicans who would like to take the step of the opposition to the government, in addition to that to the pension reform.

Motions of censure had to be tabled within twenty-four hours of the triggering of Rule 49.3. It will then be necessary to wait at least forty-eight hours for them to be debated – it is the Conference of Presidents that will set the time of examination.

To be adopted, one or the other of the motions of censure will have to gather the votes of the absolute majority of the members composing the National Assembly, i.e. 289 votes in normal times, but 287 currently because four seats remain unfilled. A condition that prevents a simple majority, linked to abstentions, from being enough to overthrow a government. Clearly: any abstention is implicit support for the government, according to the Constitution.

For this condition too, it is unlikely that a motion of censure will prevail. With all the Nupes (149), RN (88), and all the Liot (20) deputies, it still lacks 32 votes to adopt it. More than half of the group Les Républicains should therefore cross the Rubicon while the president of LR Ciotti ensures that none of its members will support motions of censure. Unless there is an unlikely defection from the ranks of LREM, or its allies in Modem and Horizons.

Reminder. If the motion of censure is voted, 2 legal consequences:

- the text is not adopted (therefore no pension reform)- the Government must resign (and therefore the PR must appoint a PM)


The dissolution is not automatic. Is this a political choice of the PR https://t.co/avUmPHaB2c

— Jérôme Guedj (@JeromeGuedj) March 17, 2023

But if one of the motions of censure were to be passed, the law for which the government of Elisabeth Borne had engaged its responsibility would then be rejected. Emmanuel Macron would then have the choice of appointing another Prime Minister or keeping his confidence in Elisabeth Borne – and, in this case, dissolve the National Assembly. A solution that had been adopted by Charles de Gaulle in 1962 during the only motion of censure adopted by the Fifth Republic.

• "Only one solution, dissolution"?

The slogan flourishes in the processions. The dissolution is agitated by Emmanuel Macron as a recurring threat since the legislative elections of June 2022 left him only a relative majority to govern. It was still on the eve of 49.3 to hope to bring into line the Republicans reluctant to vote for the reform.

Following in the footsteps of General de Gaulle by responding to a motion of censure with a dissolution, this would probably not displease Emmanuel Macron. Even in the ranks of the support of the executive, the new legislative elections appear to be a solution. An official of the majority group said, on condition of anonymity, that the sequence of retreats and the 49-3 is "a crash. There needs to be a dissolution." And start off on the right foot by winning the elections that would boost Macronia's political capital.

Still, the maneuver is hazardous. In 1997, Jacques Chirac tried the maneuver that cost him his majority. A possible dissolution of 2023 could lead to the same consequences...

Without a crystal ball, it is difficult to predict who could emerge as the winner of these hypothetical legislative elections: the Nupes, provided they agree on the investitures, could make a leap by capitalizing on the successful social movement. But observers warn that the most likely winner is likely to be the RN, thriving on growing discontent in French society.

The National Assembly would then risk being more fragmented than ever, making the existence of a majority unlikely.

• The street does not disarm

The next steps for the pension reform will also be played out in the streets. After the government's decision to use 49.3 to pass its bill, the inter-union met and denounced "a denial of democracy" and a passage "in force".

"Today, it is this exemplary social movement that demonstrates that the President of the Republic and his government are failing before the National Assembly," the eight main French unions wrote in their statement.

The inter-union called for "local rallies of proximity" during the weekend of March 18 and a ninth day of strikes and demonstrations on Thursday, March 23.

Still, after weeks of calm mobilization, the movement could harden and escape the supervision of the unions. A scenario that the inter-union has been agitating for weeks in the face of Macron's inflexibility. The use of 49.3 proved the trade unionists right. Several spontaneous demonstrations took place in the wake of the use of the article of the Constitution, giving rise to multiple incidents and arrests.

• Towards a referendum of shared initiative?

The Nupes prefers to keep several cards in its hand to fight against the pension reform proposed by the government. If the no-confidence motion fails, the shared initiative referendum (RIP) could be another option.

A constitutional weapon at the disposal of MPs, the RIP provides for the possibility of organising a popular consultation on a bill "on the initiative of one fifth of the members of Parliament", i.e. at least 185 of the 925 MPs (577 MPs, 348 senators). It must also be "supported by a tenth of the electorate", i.e. 4.87 million people, whose signatures must be collected within nine months.

For Valérie Rabault, Socialist vice-president of the National Assembly, the procedure would make it possible to "block for nine months the implementation of this reform". But "if a RIP is triggered on pensions, it must be triggered before the promulgation of the law".

For his colleague from the Nupes, the deputy PCF Stéphane Peu assured that the intergroup had since Tuesday, March 14 the 185 parliamentarians necessary for the procedure. His bill will propose that "the retirement age cannot exceed 62 years," he said.

• The Constitutional Council, another recourse

The RIP is not the only card that remains to be shot down to the opponents of the reform if the motions of censure do not find a majority: "There will be several appeals to the Constitutional Council against this text if it was voted," assured Tuesday, March 14, Charles de Courson, centrist deputy of the Liot group.

The left-wing MPs intend to rely on the opinion of the Council of State, which had alerted the government to a risk of unconstitutionality of certain measures of its reform project and in particular its lack of clear figures, the one initially presented by the government having been undermined as the debates progressed.

It is... shedding light on the legal weaknesses of the reform

— Jérôme Guedj (@JeromeGuedj) March 17, 2023

The leader of the Insoumise in the National Assembly, Mathilde Panot, promised that the left would seize the Constitutional Council. The coalition will argue that the reform, inserted in a draft amendment to the Social Security budget, is a legislative rider, since finances are not the only aspect addressed in the text.

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