The President of Honduras announced on Tuesday, March 14, her intention to establish formal diplomatic relations with Beijing, logically implying the rupture of relations with Taipei. In Taiwan, many...

Analysis

Why Honduras wants to establish diplomatic relations with China at the expense of Taiwan

Xiomara Castro de Zelaya, President of Honduras, announced in a tweet his desire to establish diplomatic relations with China, a decision that would effectively mean severing official relations with the Taiwanese government. AFP - ORLANDO SIERRA

Text by: Adrien Simorre Follow

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The news made headlines in Taiwanese media. On Tuesday, March 14, Xiomara Castro de Zelaya, President of Honduras elected in January 2022, announced in a tweet her desire to establish diplomatic relations with China. "This is a sign of my determination to pursue the government's plans," justified in her message the leader, who had already announced her intentions during the 2021 presidential campaign.

If implemented, such a decision would effectively sever Honduras' official relations with the Taiwanese government. China refuses to allow a country to maintain joint diplomatic relations with Beijing and Taipei. "We call on Honduras not to fall into the trap set by China," the Taiwanese government said.

The announcement is the latest act in a diplomatic standoff between Taiwan and China, which seeks to diplomatically isolate the democratic archipelago of 24 million people it claims. Since the election of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen in 2016, firmly opposed to Chinese annexation, Taipei has lost eight of its official allies, and can now rely on only 14 diplomatic alliances.

Portfolio diplomacy

In this context, portfolio diplomacy is Beijing's greatest asset. On Wednesday, March 15, in a television interview, the Honduran Minister of Foreign Affairs confirmed that the decision was linked to Taiwan's refusal to "double its financial aid" to Honduras. Opposite, China has already financed two dam projects in Honduras, the Patuca II, inaugurated in 2021, and the Patuca III, in project.

The timing of the announcement, however, surprised the Taiwanese press. More than a year after the inauguration of the Honduran president, the announcement comes a few months before the Taiwanese presidential election next January. Heard Wednesday before Parliament, a Taiwanese intelligence official said he "does not exclude" the possibility of increased pressure from China on Honduras in retaliation for the upcoming visit of the Taiwanese president to the United States, seen with a very bad eye by Beijing.

"I think Honduras is trying to put pressure on Taiwan to ask for more money," said Kung Kwo-wei, director of the Institute for Latin American Studies at Tamkang University in Taipei. If the Honduran president had wanted to quickly establish relations with Beijing, the talks would have taken place in private, not with an announcement on Twitter.

An announcement to qualify on the Taiwanese side

Apart from the Kuomintang, the main opposition party in favor of a rapprochement with Beijing, many in Taiwan qualify the scope of the Honduran announcement. In fact, it is not Taiwan strictly speaking that would lose another diplomatic ally, but the Republic of China. The regime defeated in China in 1949 by Mao's army is now Taiwan's constitutional "shell".

From the point of view of the former single party Kuomintang, we are still supposed to represent the whole of China, which is absurd, said Professor Chen Fang-Yu, a professor at Soochow University and a democratic activist. We must get out of this myth of competition with Communist China over the number of diplomatic relations, because we do not have the financial means to keep up. And we should explain that a severance of diplomatic relations must not lead to the abandonment of informal relations with Taiwan.

Taiwan's last diplomatic allies remain valuable to the archipelago. They allow it, for example, to make its voice heard in international institutions, where Taipei has no headquarters because of pressure from Beijing. For the time being, Taiwan's thirteen other diplomatic allies will be able to continue to fulfill this role without hindrance.

Diplomatic relations between Taiwan and the United States

In the case of Honduras, U.S. influence was crucial to maintaining the relationship with Taipei, but U.S. influence is eroding in Central America, Kung Kwo-wei said. To keep our remaining allies, such as Haiti, the Taiwanese government will only be able to rely on the quality of the relationship.

But Taiwan knows that the battle for its right to exist is being fought primarily on other fronts. The United States, where Taiwanese President Tsai Ing Wen is due to visit next month, has repeatedly reaffirmed its "rock-solid" commitment to Taiwan. According to Reuters, the UK last year approved historic transfers of military technology to Taiwan. And in Eastern Europe, signs of support for Formosa are multiplying.

In recent years, Taiwan's foreign policy has evolved, focusing less on diplomatic allies and more on partnerships with countries that share common values, Taiwanese journalist Xu Wei-Ting, a correspondent for the Taiwanese news agency in Washington, wrote in an op-ed. In this context, Honduras' decision will have only limited effects on Taiwan.

Why Honduras wants to establish diplomatic relations with China at the expense of Taiwan

Why Honduras wants to establish diplomatic relations with China at the expense of Taiwan

Portfolio diplomacy

An announcement to qualify on the Taiwanese side

Diplomatic relations between Taiwan and the United States

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