The former municipal councillor Ebba Östlin is one of the protagonists in the divisive battle within the Social Democrats in Botkyrka. She was recently ousted at a Social Democratic membership meeting. The circumstances surrounding this meeting have created question marks, including reports that gang criminals were present.

Ebba Östlin's supporters accuse their opponents in the party of this, that is, of being infiltrated by gang criminals. The grouping that wants to see Ebba Östlin ousted dismisses these accusations and believes that it is instead a matter of widespread dissatisfaction with Östlin's leadership style.

On Saturday, a new membership meeting will be held. The plan is that the issue will then finally be decided. The Social Democrats in Botkyrka have nominated Emanuel Ksiazkiewicz, as the new group leader, but Ebba Östlin has not given up. The winner will be the new municipal councillor in Botkyrka.

Likely to be a costly victory

In the run-up to this meeting, accusations have hailed between the various factions. It is not least about alleged infiltration of gang criminals. A report that has pointed out ABF's youth recreation centers in Botkyrka as haunts for gang criminals plays an important role here. In the faction that wants to see Östlin ousted, there are, among other things, S-politicians with close ties to ABF.

The party has admittedly conducted an internal investigation in which it has concluded that there is no support for the claim that gang criminals infiltrated the party in Botkyrka. But critics say the investigation is incomplete and has many question marks.

Another conflict issue ahead of Saturday's meeting is who will be allowed to participate in the vote. The party has decided to say no to 98 people who have applied for membership in the Social Democrats in Botkyrka. The decision to deny these memberships has been confirmed by party secretary Tobias Baudin with the motive of counteracting factional formation. But the decision is not accepted by the faction that supports Ebba Östlin. There, threats have been made to take legal action if the new members are stopped by the party.

Regardless of who wins the vote on Saturday, it is likely to be a costly victory. The underlying conflict does not appear to be about to be resolved. Quite the opposite. In the weeks that have passed, the trenches have been dug ever deeper. There is thus a significant risk for S that the battle will continue even after Saturday's membership meeting.

Harming the party at the national level

The tours in Botkyrka are hurting the Social Democratic Party even at the national level. The central party leadership has been forced to interfere several times, which has contributed to the extensive and mostly negative media attention. This week, a topical debate was also held in the Riksdag on the topic of infiltration and undue influence of political institutions. This debate was a direct consequence of the tours in Botkyrka.

So even though the battle is actually local, it has also had significant repercussions at the national level. It also fuels political opponents to accusations that the party is infiltrated by gang criminals. It also creates an image of a party in disarray, with internal strife and stabs in the back.

Regardless of how the battle on Saturday ends, it's hard to see anyone being able to declare themselves the winner if, or when, the gunpowder smoke settles. The factions will persist for a long time, as will the contradictions, which seem to be abysmal. The allegations of infiltration by gang criminals will also take time to wash away.

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In the video, you get a summary of the development of events – in 60 seconds. Photo: SVT