The winter was dry, very dry.

The months of December, January and February were marked by a deficit of rain and snow, confirmed Météo France Monday, March 6, in its winter report.

What reinforce fears of a new summer marked by drought.

In anticipation, the government says it wants to prepare.

Since mid-February, four departments - Ain, Pyrénées-Orientales, Var and Bouches-du-Rhône - have already been subject to restrictions on the use of water.

It is forbidden to water your lawn, fill your swimming pool or even irrigate crops.

"Anticipatory" measures to avoid "possible crisis situations", argues the Minister of Ecological Transition Christophe Béchu.

But on Tuesday, the rain finally returns, greets the meteorological organization in its daily bulletin.

A salutary truce which could give hope for a reversal of the situation.

"If it rains as it usually rains regularly in the spring, we won't have any difficulties since we won't need to take water from groundwater or waterways", wanted to reassure Marc Fesneau, Minister of Agriculture on February 27.

For Simon Mittelberger, climatologist at Météo France, these precipitations will indeed be welcome and will make it possible to "humidify" the soil.

However, they will remain insufficient to recharge the groundwater that has been dried up by the accumulation of dry spells, summer and winter alike.

France 24: What is the current situation?

Simon Mittelberger:

Since September, we have had an 18% rainfall deficit in France.

And February is part of this global trend with this record streak of 32 days without rain.

The rainfall deficit reaches 75%.

With this very mild and very dry winter, which follows the drought of summer 2022, the state of the soil is very worrying.

Concretely, today, we are in the situation that we normally encounter in the middle of April.

However, there are strong disparities between the territories.

In the south-west of France, for example, we are in a situation almost close to normal because the soils were able to benefit from significant rainfall at the end of January.

On the other hand, in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Occitanie, the soils have never been so dry at this time of year.

We are close to what we usually encounter in May.

The state of groundwater in France, March 6, 2023 © Info Sécheresse

Could the return of precipitation at the beginning of March be enough to improve the situation?

Rain will indeed arrive in the northern two thirds of France and in the South-West from Tuesday and this is good news.

Especially since the month of March is crucial because it is in a way the last moment for the recharge of groundwater.

Normally, the period between September and March is the "recharge period", that is to say that the precipitation makes it possible to replenish the groundwater with water.

After this date, with the arrival of spring, it is too late: the temperatures rise, increasing the evaporation of precipitation and the vegetation starts up again and draws water from the soil to develop.

The rains that fall can therefore no longer go deep enough to reach the groundwater.

In addition, we started from such low water reserves, after the drought of the summer of 2022, that it would have taken a winter with a markedly excess in precipitation to fully recharge the water tables.

These rains in March will therefore be beneficial because they will make it possible to re-wet the soil, but they will not be sufficient to fully replenish stocks.

[Editor's note: From the beginning of September to March 2, the equivalent of 435.1 millimeters of precipitation fell in France - the seasonal normal being 583.7 millimeters.

It would thus be necessary that by March 31, at least 150 millimeters of rain should fall in the country.

The normal for a month of March is 50 mm, note Météo France]

>> Agriculture, nuclear power plants… How water is consumed in France

Concretely, what should we expect for spring and summer?

Currently, we have no significant trend for the weather for the next three months.

According to our latest assessment, the scenario rather tends towards a warmer spring than normal, but we are unable to model a trend concerning precipitation.

In theory, yes, the situation can therefore improve further if the next few weeks are particularly rainy.

We had the case in 2012, for example, where the month of April was twice as rainy as normal, which made it possible to avoid a summer drought.

Ideally, it should also be moderate rainfall that would spread over several days for the water to have time to penetrate the ground.

And if it rains, farmers will not have to irrigate their crops and therefore draw on water reserves.

On the other hand, in the opposite case, we will be forced to draw on the tablecloths.

And it is really the level of this water reserve that remains worrying today.

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