It has a name to conjure up nightmares.
Cyclone Freddy killed four people after hitting Madagascar on Tuesday evening, February 21.
It continued its devastating route on Wednesday, accompanied by strong winds and torrential rains, across the large island in southern Africa and should reach the coast of Mozambique on Friday.
This category 3 tropical cyclone when it made landfall in Madagascar caused “16,660 people to be affected”, according to an initial report from the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC) published on Wednesday.
Of this total, nearly 11,000 had to be evacuated urgently, while 3,300 homes were flooded.
A little bit of luck
Madagascar feared the arrival of Freddy, whose maximum intensity recorded was that of a category 4 cyclone - that is to say with winds around 220 km / h -, but which approached of category 5, the maximum for this type of extreme weather phenomenon, reported Yale Climate Connections, a media dependent on the famous American university of Yale.
The island had indeed already had to face Cheneso, a previous category 2 cyclone, at the end of January. The torrential rains that had fallen then had “degraded the soil”, increasing the risk “of floods and landslides”, estimated Yale Climate Connections.
But the inhabitants of this region were “lucky”, assures Ralf Toumi, specialist in tropical cyclones at Imperial College London.
Freddy initially avoided hitting Reunion Island, which seemed to be on his way.
The cyclone then largely spared Mauritius which, however, experienced intense rains.
Finally, arriving in Madagascar, it deflated “to fall back to a category 1 cyclone when entering the land, which the local authorities know how to manage”, assures Ralf Toumi.
Madagascar is, in fact, the African country most exposed to these extreme events, since it undergoes, on average, 1.5 cyclones per year, according to the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs of the United Nations.
Freddy should then recover a little from the hair of the cyclone by leaving Madagascar on Wednesday evening and entering the Mozambique Channel, because “the temperature of the water there is currently high, which contributes to accentuating the intensity of the cyclones”, underlines Ralph Toumi.
But the current forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the main American center for observing cyclones, puts on a breathless Freddy, with winds barely exceeding 110 km / h, when it will touch the coasts. from Mozambique.
A unique "monster"
The worst therefore seems to have been avoided.
If an inhabited area had been hit by Freddy at the height of its intensity, “it would have produced an apocalyptic result”, underlined Emmanuel Cloppet, director of Météo-France for the Indian Ocean, interviewed by Le Monde.
Because even if Freddy will probably not mark the spirits like other much more destructive cyclones, “it is a unique and unprecedented phenomenon which has just occurred”, underlines Xiangbo Feng, specialist in tropical cyclones at the University of Reading.
Freddy is indeed a “monster” like the Indian Ocean has never known before.
The energy he has accumulated throughout his journey from Australia is unparalleled for the region.
“There are two main ways to assess the importance of a cyclone: either we observe its maximum intensity, which is never easy and often gives rise to debates even if it is the criterion most often retained , or we are interested in all the energy stored during its life, and which translates the potential dangerousness of the phenomenon”, sums up Ralf Toumi.
Thus, Freddy obtained a score of 66 on the index of Cumulative Energy of tropical cyclones (in English, Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE) established by the University of Colorado.
He has already broken the previous record for the southern hemisphere, set at 53 by Cyclone Fantala in 2016, while he has not yet finished his journey.
Even in the northern hemisphere, known for its very violent cyclonic phenomena, such as hurricanes Katrina in 2005 or Sandy in 2012 (the word "hurricane" being the equivalent of the term "cyclone" for the Atlantic), there is no There are only two more powerful events according to the ACE index: Hurricane "Three" in 1899 and Ivan in 2004.
But that's not all.
“The most striking thing is the lifespan of this cyclone”, assures Xiangbo Feng.
Freddy has been evolving as a cyclone in the Pacific for more than three weeks now, which is “very rare”, confirms Ralf Toumi.
“It takes a conjunction of weather conditions – warm, stable temperatures, winds of similar strength at water level and above the cyclone – that are not often encountered over such a long period,” assures the climatologist of Imperial College London.
Freddy "refuses to die"
Generally, cyclones in this region and originating in Australia also branch off south well before reaching Madagascar.
But not Freddy, who “continued straight ahead following an unprecedented trajectory”, note the experts interviewed by France 24.
Throughout his journey, "he experienced four peaks of intensity, which never happens to my knowledge", is surprised Xiangbo Feng.
Ordinarily, cyclones, hurricanes or typhoons experience a peak or two at most and then decrease in intensity before disappearing.
“But Freddy refuses to die,” insists the researcher from the University of Reading.
It is therefore a phenomenon in many respects mysterious that has befallen Madagascar.
“One of the main scientific challenges will be to understand if Freddy will remain a unique event in history or if it is the first of a new series of cyclones which will share the same characteristics in the future [phenomena very intense with several peaks over a long period, Ed]”, sums up Xiangbo Feng, who is working on tools to predict this type of cyclonic behavior.
“It is certain that scientists will try to see if global warming can explain the unprecedented behavior of this cyclone”, confirms Ralf Toumi.
It's not going to be easy according to this expert: "We know that the warming of the oceans is linked to climate change, but it's much more difficult to establish for the other factors that influence Freddy's lifespan, such as for example the power of the winds”.
If this is the start of a new “family” of cyclones, Xiangbo Feng believes that it may be “lucky because we see them coming from afar, which allows us to prepare”.
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