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Russia intends to mark the 12 months of its “special operation in Ukraine”

Russian President Vladimir Putin in Bishkek, December 9, 2022 © Sergei BOBYLYOV / AFP

Text by: Anissa El Jabri Follow

4 mins

Speech by Vladimir Putin in front of the Duma, this Tuesday February 21, broadcast by all the televisions of the country, then concert at the mythical Luzhniki stadium on Wednesday 22: the power has therefore decided to mark the twelve months of what it always calls an "operation special in Ukraine”.

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From our correspondent in Moscow,

For a long time, Russian television has ostensibly ignored the duration of the Russian offensive in Ukraine.

Change of strategy: the power has scripted and orchestrated its sequence over the twelve months of the dispatch of Russian soldiers, with, for example, last week, meetings with parliamentarians to discuss Vladimir Putin's speech this Wednesday.

Dimitri Peskov, the spokesman for the Kremlin, declared this Sunday February 19: " 

", also confirming that Vladimir Putin will speak this Tuesday about the offensive he has launched and the international situation.

The importance of symbols

In Russia, it is expected that decisions will be taken very quickly: parliamentarians have been asked to be available to legislate.

Mystery still on the content this Wednesday, February 22 of the concert at the mythical Luzhniki stadium, and in particular on the presence of the president.

But here too, the symbol leaves no real room for doubt about the mobilizing tone: this stage is the one where

was celebrated.

It is also there that last March Vladimir Putin declared: “ 

”.

The Russian president was referring to opponents of his decision to send soldiers to Ukraine.

This week will be in Russia from the 22nd to the 26th and a lot of events around the army and the motherland will be organized all over the country.

Mobilize minds

Little by little, the power therefore pushes the fires of a mobilization of the spirits.

Since the start of the school year, all the schools have set up what we call here “conversations on the important”, that is to say courses on history and patriotism.

The Ministry of Education also announced this Sunday that it is “

 ” a format for parents of students.

In

Vladimir Putin had already scripted the last march before the launch of what he still calls "the special operation in Ukraine", with in particular the 21st, this security council filmed, and broadcast on all television channels. Russian, like a dizzying and imposing staging of the vertical of power and an imminent conflict.

In a gigantic room where words and footsteps echo, under white columns several meters high, the entire power elite (Prime Minister, Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense, heads of internal and external intelligence services. .) sat on simple chairs meters away from the Russian president behind a desk.

Topic of the day: should we continue the diplomatic talks or not, recognize what was at the time the so-called self-proclaimed republics of Donbass?

climate of fear

Launching the “exchanges”, Vladimir Putin had declared in particular: “

»

In a climate of palpable fear, Vladimir Putin questioned the participants one by one.

A chilling scene had marked: the head of foreign intelligence who had become entangled in his response and had been humiliated by the head of state in front of all of Russia.

In this Russia stunned by the acceleration of events, on February 22, a researcher, professor of political philosophy at the school of social and economic sciences in Moscow, was still one of the few whose conviction was made.

Gregory Yudin wrote in an article that the conflict was imminent and that nothing, not even massive sanctions, would prevent Vladimir Putin from sending his soldiers to Ukraine.

A year later, here is the interview that RFI conducted with him: 

Interview with Grégory Yudin

RFI:

A year later, the packages of sanctions follow one another and the unity of Westerners has not cracked.

Do you think that the price of sanctions still matters so little to power?

Grégory Yudin 

: It does not matter at all because it is an existential challenge for the Russian head of state.

He believes he will be killed if he does not win this war.

Sanctions have an entirely different effect: they damage the Russian war machine.

Every million rubles that these sanctions cost the Russian budget are lives saved in Ukraine, even if Russia is now slowly transforming its economy into a war economy.

Vladimir Putin believes that the West is a threat and a real danger to him, that he is planning to kill him and organize a revolution in Russia.

That if he doesn't win in Ukraine, it's the death of the Russian elite.

It's really existential.

He truly believes that the West wants to destroy the country, conquer the country, assassinate the Russian elites who oppose it.

The events in Libya in 2011, when Gaddafi was killed, it was very important for Putin and had a very big influence on him.

He is afraid that the same thing will happen to him.

RFI: Do the sanctions have no effect on Russian society either?

Grégory Yudin

: There is no chance of collective resistance in Russian society.

The sanctions could have had an effect on Russian society if they had been abrupt, if they had been able to destroy the daily life of Russians.

But the sanctions that we see are quite gradual, progressive sanctions, and therefore we can adapt to them.

In addition, I would like to say that there is a lot of talk about companies leaving Russia.

I know in the West there is a belief that all Western companies have left Russia, but that is not true.

Most companies are still in Russia and make money there, especially French companies.

RFI: So for you nothing can move in Russia?

Grégory Yudin

 : It is a great pain for many Russians who are unhappy with what is happening at the moment.

But for this to turn into protest, especially in the streets, you have to be able to organize yourself.

And this is now impossible in Russia.

All collective organization is completely destroyed, it is impossible to create the conditions for collective action.

RFI: At the level of Western governments, unity is not broken but we are beginning - since the beginning of January especially - to hear voices in the West who judge that it is urgent to think about peace talks.

These voices say in particular "a long war will not benefit anyone"

What do you think of the arguments developed in favor of talks?

Grégory Yudin

 : All these calls for talks are just a way for me to put pressure on the Ukrainians.

Vladimir Putin does not want talks because he is sure he will win this war.

So I would like to suggest to all these pacifists to go see him and convince him that conflicts must be resolved through talks, through dialogue.

But they know very well that it's absurd, that he doesn't want talks.

This is even why they exert this pressure on the Ukrainians who need support to be able to protect their country.

What will happen if Ukraine is pressed for talks?

Ukraine will end up divided.

This Poutinian adventure will be a success and everyone will see it.

And no one is going to invest in Ukraine to restore the country because we will think that it will be wasted money in a divided country without peace.

Western companies that had left will return to Russia.

In one to two years perhaps, Putin will launch a new unprecedented offensive and will conquer all of Ukraine, and also Moldova.

And in the West we will listen to those who will say that these territories are indeed Russian, always have been, and that Putin's claims are justified.

And if these territories are Russian, well then, the East of Estonia or Latvia will be too, because there are a lot of people who speak Russian and who respect Putin.

And when Putin begins to annex these territories of Eastern Europe, what will happen?

NATO will fall apart?

Will it be the same as as in (19)39?

Why die for Danzig?

Furthermore, if we imagine that the United States elects a different president who does not bother to think about the world order, then Putin will progress through all of Europe.

He already said very clearly, a year ago, at the end of 2021, that all of Eastern Europe belongs to the Russian sphere of influence, that is, to Russia .

Then you will see the Russian tanks on the French borders much faster than you can even imagine today, and the French soldiers will be forced to perish to protect the country.

Today the Ukrainians are protecting you, so I think you have to think seriously before betraying them and pushing for talks.

If Putin is ready for talks, he will let you know very clearly, no doubt about it.

RFI: there are no more so-called “liberal” voices in Russia.

We only hear criticism from the nationalist camp.

In your eyes, do they represent an important segment of public opinion?

Why can they express themselves?

Is their place in the landscape an advantage, a disadvantage and/or a risk for Vladimir Putin?

Grégory Yudin

: What is the risk?

Drop Putin?

It's impossible.

The militarists are the product of the system and are dependent on it.

If the system breaks down, maybe these groups will go to war with each other and people like Prigojin could become prominent figures;

but today they are controlled by the Kremlin and there is absolutely no risk.

The militarists are a part of Russian society, maybe fifteen or 20%.

It is very difficult to estimate because I believe that the polls have no value at the moment.

We hear them and, very often, we take them for Russian public opinion because there are no other opposing voices.

That is why in the West it is believed that this truly militarized part of Russian society represents the whole of Russian society.

It's not true.

Of course, the president needs the support of this part of the militarized society because they are in charge of producing the justification for this war.

And so he has to tolerate criticism.

So maybe it's not nice for Putin, but he now depends on that part of society because

That said, this criticism is not a criticism of Putin himself, a criticism of the president's person, but of the administration and the military leaders.

It's Russian politics: you don't have to criticize the emperor, but seek influence over the emperor to be the winner of the competition.

At the other extreme, there are maybe 20 to 25% of people who are opposed to this war.

And between these two extremes, there is the majority of Russian society which is still quite depoliticized and therefore quite indifferent to this war.

This conflict was a surprise and a shock for the Russians.

But for them, you have to, whatever happens, stay away from politics and take care of your daily life, your private life, your business.

It has been like this for decades, it is a natural response for Russians to hide, and it must be done all the more so as events are threatening.

Most of the Russian population prefers not to know anything about what is happening in Ukraine.

RFI: On December 31, when speaking of Vladimir Putin's wishes, you saw there the harbinger of a “kind of mobilization to come”.

Can you expand?

Grégory Yudin

: I would like everyone to understand that Vladimir Putin is preparing his country for a long war, and a bloody war with millions of deaths.

It's a preparation you can smell everywhere in Russia.

I am not sure that this mobilization of society will be a success.

It is yet to be seen.

But there should be no doubt that Putin wants to mobilize society.

This is why the whole education system is quickly transformed into a propaganda system and becomes an integral part of the military system, because young people have to be prepared to go and die in this war.

The transformation of the education system is really fast.

There is also rapid economic transformation.

All resources are devoted to war.

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