A symbolic date for a speech scrutinized by the media around the world.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will deliver his State of the Nation address on Tuesday (February 21st), three days before the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
While February 21 marks Moscow's official recognition a year ago of the self-proclaimed "people's" republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, the timing leaves little doubt about the main theme of the presidential address.
“On February 21, the President of the Russian Federation will address the Federal Assembly”, which brings together the two chambers of the Russian Parliament, and will address “the current situation”, in particular the Russian military intervention in Ukraine and the socio -economic in Russia, had already announced to the press the spokesman of the Russian presidency, Dmitry Peskov.
"War affects our life in one way or another. It affects life on the continent. Therefore, of course,
On the eve of the speech, while nothing has officially filtered on the content of the remarks which will be made by the Russian leader, the hypotheses are multiplying.
Will Vladimir Putin announce a new Russian offensive in Ukraine?
Will he call for a new mobilization or new economic measures to support the war effort?
For Jeff Hawn, a specialist in Russian military issues and an external consultant for the New Lines Institute, an American center for geopolitical research, it will above all be a question, for the Russian president, of addressing the international community in a roundabout way.
France 24: What does this address on the state of the nation traditionally consist of
?
Jeff Hawn:
The State of the Nation Address has been held every year in Russia since 1994. The Russian leader gives parliamentarians an overview of the past year and outlines the country's major strategic directions for the year to come.
But it is in no way a question of opening up a space for debate: this speech is very often flat, without substance, and only serves to officially state political decisions that have already been taken.
Moreover, the place where the speech is held shows that it is, above all, for Vladimir Putin, a communication operation.
The Russian leader speaks at the Gostiny Dvor congress center in Moscow, not at the Kremlin or the Duma (the Russian Parliament, editor's note).
This is the first State of the Nation Address since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. What can we expect
?
Usually, there is not much to expect from this speaking engagement.
But this year, when the situation is volatile on the ground and the Russian military is struggling, it may give us clues as to how Vladimir Putin wants to approach the next few months.
In my opinion, this speech will above all be addressed to the international community, and more specifically to Western countries.
Vladimir Putin knows that his words will be listened to and relayed by the media around the world.
This therefore gives him a perfect platform to list his main conditions for a ceasefire or an end to the war with Ukraine.
In this, the surprise presence of Joe Biden in kyiv on Monday can certainly change the words of the Russian leader at the last moment.
>> To read also: "The Russian army, from the illusion of grandeur to the reality of the Ukrainian terrain"
The spokesperson for the Russian presidency, Dmitry Peskov, nevertheless assures that "the socio-economic situation of Russia" will also be addressed
?
In a second step, yes, the president will also certainly address the citizens.
There is always some concern about an outcry, even if, despite the war, Vladimir Putin has managed to maintain his control over the population.
But the fact is that as he gives this speech, Russia has lost many human lives, a lot of military equipment, and it has no real victory to boast about.
Vladimir Putin will therefore certainly want to justify the continuation of his "special operation".
It's a safe bet that, faithful to his rhetoric, he will explain that "the population must continue to make many sacrifices" because Russia "is trapped by Western countries", "alone against all the West", "Besieged by the West".
The following day, Wednesday, a rally-concert will be organized at the Luzhniki stadium, the Olympic stadium in Moscow. A desire for Vladimir Putin to prove his popularity
?
We don't know much about this event but there is a strong symbolic significance [this stage is where the annexation of Crimea was celebrated, editor's note].
This will certainly be the occasion for a new public demonstration of the "loyalty" of the political elites towards the Russian leader and a way for the latter to reassert his control over political life.
Despite everything, behind all this ceremony hides the fragility of the situation in which Vladimir Putin finds himself.
Because this communication operation aims, in the end, to hide a precarious situation on the Ukrainian ground.
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