China News Service, Beijing, February 16 (Reporter Kan Feng) Du Peng, vice president of the Chinese Population Association and vice president of Renmin University of China, said in an exclusive interview with China News Agency "China Focus Face-to-face" that the number of women of childbearing age has decreased, and the first marriage Multiple factors, such as delayed childbearing age and changing concept of childbearing, have led to the decline of China's birth population.

　　Statistics show that by the end of 2022, the national population has decreased by 850,000 compared with the end of the previous year. This is the first negative population growth in China in the past 61 years.

According to the data released by the National Health and Medical Commission in January 2022, young people's willingness to have children continues to decline. The average number of children planned by women of childbearing age is 1.76 in 2017, 1.73 in 2019, and 1.64 in 2021. indivual.

　　In recent years, the national level has continuously adjusted and optimized fertility policies to release fertility potential.

Then, after the policy adjustment, why did the birth population not rise but fall instead?

Why are some young people reluctant to have children these days?

　　In Du Peng's view, there are many factors behind the decline in fertility.

　　First, after the popularization of social security, pensions no longer rely solely on children, and people's concept of childbearing will also be affected accordingly.

　　Second, the level of medical care and public health is improving.

Today, the national average life expectancy has reached 78.2 years, and some provinces and cities in the eastern region have exceeded 80 years old, which has also had an impact on fertility levels.

After the population structure changes, the young population of childbearing age is decreasing, so under the same birth rate, the number of children born each year is also decreasing.

　　Third, the concept of equality between men and women is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.

The employment rate of Chinese women is very high, and women have to balance the relationship between childbearing and career development.

　　Fourth, the level of education is improving.

It is often said that the higher the level of education, the more the fertility level tends to decline. There is a change of concept here.

At the same time, the length of education is prolonged, and the age of first marriage and first childbirth is also delayed. Working women will pay a higher price for childbearing, which will also lead to a decline in the number of childbearing population.

　　Du Peng said that overall, the number of women of childbearing age is decreasing, the age of first marriage and first childbirth is being postponed, and the divorce rate and unmarried rate are also increasing. At the same time, young people will also encounter the problem of balancing work and childbearing. These factors Superimposed, the number of births in 2022 will hit a new low.

　　Du Peng said that "fewer births" is the main driver of negative population growth. To solve this problem, we still need to pay attention to whether the fertility rate can be effectively improved in the next few decades.

This "uplift" is not to return to the state of ten or twenty years ago, but to prevent it from falling further, and at the same time, to enable people who have the desire to bear children to fully realize their desire to bear children.

　　"If we can't solve the related factors that lead to the reduction of birth population as soon as possible in the next 5-10 years, the negative population growth may enter the process of acceleration. In the long run, although population growth will always enter a negative growth stage, we It is still necessary to strive to avoid a sharp decline in the fertility rate and a long-term slump in the number of births, so that it is conducive to the long-term balanced development of the population." Du Peng said.

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