Not one, not two, not three, but a whole fleet.
A week after the appearance on military and media radars of an enigmatic Chinese balloon, the American authorities affirmed, Thursday, February 9, that it was not only a spy tool, but also that it was part of a larger Chinese spy balloon operation.
This more or less identified floating object, shot down last Saturday, has begun to reveal its secrets.
Among the debris recovered and analyzed at the FBI headquarters in Quantico, there were antennas, sensors and even solar panels that could be used to generate electricity to operate all the on-board electronic equipment, explained American officials during 'a press conference.
From Napoleon to China
What weaken the position of Beijing, which continues to maintain that it was only a weather balloon.
But Washington did not content itself with reaffirming its conviction of having discovered a spy balloon.
“China has a fleet of such balloons which have enabled it to spy on around 40 countries,” added the American investigators.
Beijing would have sent its flying spies to Japan, the Philippines, North and South America and also to Europe.
Some of them have decided to investigate in the light of recent events.
Thus Japan announced on Thursday that it would re-examine incidents that occurred in June 2020 and September 2021 which could have included spy balloons.
If this assertion were to be confirmed, "it would make China the only country, as far as I know, to have such an aerial surveillance program based in part on balloons", says Frank Ledwidge, specialist in aerial warfare issues. at the University of Portsmouth.
But not the first.
From a historical point of view, such a program would probably not exist without France.
“The first aerial military reconnaissance corps was formed by the engineer Jean-Marie-Joseph Coutelle, who provided Napoleon with reconnaissance balloons during the Franco-Prussian wars at the end of the 18th century”, specifies Frank Ledwidge .
Balloons were then used during the two world wars.
“During the first, in particular, the appearance of balloons in the sky suggested that the enemy was going to launch artillery fire”, underlines this British expert.
They then performed the same function as the drones currently used by the Ukrainians in their war against Russia: fishing for information to detect the location of targets to be hit with artillery.
It was not until the Cold War that spy balloons were used more strategically by both Moscow and Washington, and not just for battlefield reconnaissance.
For example, “the CIA-run Moby Dick project involved sending hundreds of spy balloons over the Soviet Union beginning in the late 1950s,” says Frank Ledwidge.
From long-distance espionage and from the sky of which Beijing would today be the direct heir.
Most countries have preferred to focus on satellites because "balloons are less reliable, prone to deviate from their path in strong winds and are more difficult to control", summarizes Ho Ting "Bosco" Hung, specialist in the China at the International Team for the Study of Security in Verona (ITSS Verona).
Disadvantages that did not stop the Chinese.
Despite a sizable fleet of around 300 surveillance satellites, they have fielded a contingent of what Frank Ledwidge thinks are “several dozen spy balloons”.
Big Brother in the Clouds
"This is proof of the ambitions of Chinese spies who use all possible means to expand their surveillance network," says Ho Ting "Bosco" Hung.
And they would be wrong to do without it: "Modern radars are not calibrated to recognize a spy balloon which will most of the time be placed in the category of unidentified flying machines", specifies Ho Ting "Bosco" Hung.
It can also remain hovering above a target, which is not the case with satellites, which are always in motion.
An advantage that allows the balloon, equipped with cameras, to take more detailed photos, and thus to clarify the information provided by the satellite images.
“The balloon can also be equipped with different sensors to take advantage of the fact that the balloon is moving through the atmosphere and take readings, for example, of the frequencies of the radars in the area or even of the components which could be in the air.
They could thus detect the presence of radioactivity [in the case of the observation of nuclear sites, Editor's note]”, explains Frank Ledwidge.
The icing on the flying cake: balloons cost only a fraction of the cost of manufacturing and launching satellites, add the experts interviewed by France 24.
These spy balloons are not, however, a separate operation.
“They must be part of an integrated program of aerial surveillance”, believes Frank Ledwidge.
In other words, the army and the Ministry of State Security (the Chinese equivalent of the DGSE or the CIA) define the missions and then divide the tasks between cyber espionage, satellite surveillance and spy balloons.
The Chinese balloon spotted over Montana and then shot down could, for example, be part of a larger mission to gather information about one of three US nuclear missile silos sites.
"Images from this site could be very useful to China, which is building its own ballistic missile sites in Xinjiang," said Frank Ledwidge.
The home port of these balloons also provides an idea of the priorities of Beijing's aerial surveillance program.
They would be stored and sent from Hainan, a province and an island south of China, US authorities said.
“It's an ideal location to carry out reconnaissance missions in Southeast Asia, precisely where China intends to impose its influence,” underlines Ho Ting “Bosco” Hung.
Strategic targets for Beijing - such as Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam or Australia - are not far from the coast of Hainan.
Disappointment for Chinese spies?
It is difficult to assess the extent to which Washington's discovery of this secret spy balloon program represents a setback for Beijing.
It certainly risks weakening one of the pillars of the Chinese aerial espionage program.
"It is obvious that this will push the West to be more on the lookout for this type of aerial vehicle", recognizes Frank Ledwidge.
It is even possible that China will be forced to do without spy balloons… at least for a while.
“It all depends on what the United States will learn by analyzing the debris of the downed balloon”, assures Ho Ting “Bosco” Hung.
If the information collected allows Washington to get a clear idea of how Chinese spies collect and then transmit data, Beijing will have to review its methods to adapt to this new situation.
In this scenario, the entire surveillance program is likely to suffer, since the spy balloons are an integral part of it.
It will then be necessary to redefine the missions of satellites and cyberspies.
A job that could slow down Chinese espionage activities.
But it can also be an opportunity for Beijing.
Faced with countries now warned, Chinese spies will be able to test balloon concealment methods to assess the detection capacity of other nations.
"It's a cheap way to test anti-aircraft defenses," says Frank Ledwidge.
Spy balloons doubled as trial balloons...
The route of this balloon also represents a public image success for Chinese spies.
They have demonstrated their “creativity by combining an old method with modern surveillance technologies”, underlines Frank Ledwidge.
And for Washington, it's "a very bad operation, because a simple balloon could reach one of their most sensitive military sites, and the Americans had a hard time knowing how to react to this threat" , adds this expert.
What to give ideas to other nations?
One of the consequences of this story could be that countries “also decide to add spy balloons boosted with modern artificial intelligence technologies to improve the quality of the images”, estimates Ho Ting “Bosco” Hung.
The spies would then have their heads in the clouds more and more.
The summary of the
France 24 week invites you to come back to the news that marked the week
I subscribe
Take international news everywhere with you!
Download the France 24 app