It is the sword of Damocles which seems to be waving above the heads of the Ukrainian soldiers.
The Russian Spring Offensive that everyone is talking about is looming ever closer.
When and where will it take place?
Will Ukraine have the human and logistical resources to deal with it?
A sense of urgency seems to be setting in, both in kyiv and in Western capitals which have promised to support the Ukrainian war effort.
From words to deeds
The Russians would like to launch the assault around February 24, a year to the day after the outbreak of the war, assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during his televised address on February 5.
Several hundred thousand additional Russian soldiers "are completing their training on the border with Ukraine", said Oleksii Reznikov, the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, interviewed by BFM on February 3.
The Ukrainians are not the only ones to wave the red flag of a major offensive being prepared in Moscow.
Julianne Smith, the American ambassador to NATO, also mentioned it at the beginning of February to insist on the "urgency" of sending tanks to Ukraine as quickly as possible to contain the Russian assault.
Even Russian President Vladimir Putin alluded to it, without speaking openly about a major offensive.
He "warned the army staff that he wanted the territories lost by Russia in the Donetsk region [at the end of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, editor's note] to be regained before March", underlines Sim Tack, a military analyst for Forces Analysis, a conflict monitoring firm.
But words have never been enough to lead an offensive.
On the ground, it is currently "very difficult to know what Russia is preparing, even if we have signs that Moscow is indeed strengthening its positions", notes Sim Tack, who has access to satellite images of the areas. of fights.
New Russian troops and tanks
There are indeed "new troops who are redeployed to several places on the front line", noted this expert.
They are essentially soldiers who were doing their training in Belarus after being called to war during the partial mobilization of September 2022.
According to Sim Tack, the figures put forward by some Ukrainian officials - nearly 500,000 additional soldiers - seem "somewhat overestimated".
The expert supposes "a certain exaggeration to maintain the pressure on the Western countries and to make them understand that there is an urgency to honor their promise to send the promised military equipment".
Moreover, Moscow does not seem to be massing new units around a particular city or war objective.
The troop movements noted do not give credence to the imminence of an offensive in the Zaporijjia region, a hypothesis suggested by certain analysts.
But Russia is not just sending more men.
Artillery and, above all, new tanks are also heading towards the front.
"It's mainly T-90s, that is to say rather modern armored vehicles, which are deployed in most areas where combat takes place," said Sim Tack.
Before the arrival of Western reinforcements
However, Moscow seems to be sending more artillery and tanks to the front line running from north to Kupyansk (south of Kharkiv) to south to Vouhledar (south of Donetsk).
An area where Bakhmout is also located, a city that is the subject of intense fighting and where the Russian army seems to be slowly but surely gaining ground.
T-90 tanks were also sent to the Luhansk region, "where there are Russian paratroopers [elite units, editor's note]", underlines Sim Tack.
These Russian preparations suggest that the long-awaited spring offensive would essentially be "an intensification of efforts where Moscow is already trying to make Ukrainian forces give in", estimates Sim Tack.
In other words, Moscow would not consider opening a new front.
Increasing the pressure on the current front line also corresponds to the objective set by the Kremlin to control the Donetsk region in the spring.
"The capture of Bakhmout would open the way from the south to the Russians towards the main areas of the Donetsk region which still elude them, namely those around the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. These urban centers would also be accessible from the north if the Russian army managed to make a breakthrough in Kupiansk", sums up Sim Tack.
Moscow must also launch this probable offensive as soon as possible… and if possible before the arrival of Western tanks and the new ammunition promised by the United States and the other members of NATO.
The date of the first "anniversary" of the beginning of the war seems to correspond to this imperative of speed.
Because most of the armored vehicles and new armaments promised to the Ukrainians should not yet be available for the troops at the fronts.
"This spring offensive will probably be decisive for the rest of the conflict," said Sim Tack.
The Ukrainians will do everything so that the front line does not move until the arrival of new Western equipment.
They will then be able to launch their counter-offensive against Russian troops who will find it difficult to reconcile two contradictory imperatives: to gain ground to satisfy the Kremlin's objectives, while defending their positions against Ukrainians "doped" with advanced Western equipment.
On the other hand, if the Russians manage to control the entire Donetsk district, "they will be able to concentrate only on defensive tasks" which would make them more effective, concludes Sim Tack.
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