Mats Knutson: Therefore, Finland can take the step into NATO before Sweden

Recently, there have been several signals that Finland is considering leaving Sweden behind in the process towards NATO membership.

The background is that Turkey opposes Swedish membership but accepts Finland.

Several times, Finnish politicians have said that they would prefer to join NATO hand in hand with Sweden.

It is not least about the old ties between the countries, but also about defense planning.

Even NATO prefers that both countries join at the same time.

But at the same time, Finland has the goal of becoming full members at the latest at this summer's NATO summit in Vilnius.

The meeting is pointed out as a "window" for membership.

If this does not happen, the process risks dragging on considerably.

Perhaps no new opportunity will open until 2024.

Presidential elections and jubilee

Two things can affect the continued NATO process.

The presidential election on May 14 and the autumn 100th anniversary celebrations in Turkey of Kemal Atatürk.

First the election in May.

Few believe in the possibility that President Erdogan will say yes to Swedish NATO membership before the election.

Recently, Erdogan's attack on Sweden has rather hardened.

What significance the earthquake in Turkey may have here is still too early to speculate.

Assessors hope, however, that the matter will come to a different state after the election.

Then it is both about measures Sweden has taken and the combined pressure that the rest of NATO will subject Turkey to.

Here, one component is Turkey's request to buy American F16 planes, a deal linked to the NATO process.

"Still possible"

There is thus still an opportunity for Sweden and Finland to join NATO at the same time.

But should Turkey maintain its refusal to Swedish NATO membership also at this summer's NATO summit, Finland can choose to go ahead.

That would risk leading to a significant delay in the membership process.

Swedish NATO negotiators are doubtful as to whether Turkey in that case is prepared to approve Sweden in the autumn when the 100th anniversary of Kemal Atatürk's accession as Turkey's first president is to be celebrated.

He is the founder of modern Turkey and enjoys an almost mythical importance in the country.

The celebration of Atatürk is expected to create a nationalist frenzy in the country, which will hardly make it easier for Sweden to get Turkish approval.

In that case, a ratification could be delayed at least until 2024. That, according to several Finnish security policy assessors, is to wait far too long in the serious security policy situation that now prevails.

"Greater concern in Finland"

Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine has also created a greater and more immediate concern in Finland than in Sweden.

Finland has a long land border with Russia and has also been attacked by the large neighbor to the east in modern history.

So even if Finnish politicians would prefer to take the step into NATO together with Sweden, there seems to be a limit to how long one is prepared to wait.

Although both the USA and Great Britain have given so-called security assurances in the event of a Russian attack, it is only as a formal NATO member that a country enjoys the so-called security guarantees.

If a Turkish approval of Sweden drags on, the probability is high that Finland will take the lead.

Ultimately, it is about national security.

Finland is also a country where realpolitik always guides foreign and security policy decisions.