Unsurprisingly, the second round of the legislative elections did not arouse the awakening of the crowds in Tunisia.

Only 11.4% of voters voted, according to official figures published Monday, January 30, during this ballot boycotted by the opposition parties.

Accused by his detractors of wanting to concentrate all power, President Kaïs Saïed is also widely criticized for his management of the economic crisis which is hitting the country.

Tunisia, which has seen its debt explode in recent years, reached an agreement in principle with the IMF (International Monetary Fund) in mid-October for a loan of 1.7 billion euros.

But the institution, which demanded structural reforms in exchange, has not yet released this aid.

A situation which suggests a "complicated" year 2023, worried, in early January, the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT).

Inflation and shortages

For the Tunisian population, the aggravation of the economic crisis that the country is going through is reflected first and foremost in the cash register.

Despite government subsidies, inflation exceeded 10% in 2022. This rise in prices, particularly strong in the country for meat, eggs and oils, is linked to the war in Ukraine.

The conflict has caused the price of raw materials to skyrocket, particularly cereals used to feed livestock.

At the same time, shortages have multiplied on the shelves for many basic foodstuffs such as white sugar, coffee or rice.

This conflict "has aggravated an already difficult context", underlined last October Samir Saïd, Minister of the Economy, on France 24, explaining that Tunisia has experienced in recent years a succession of economic shocks from which it is struggling to recover.

In 2015, the Islamist terrorist attacks on the Bardo museum in Tunis, then on a seaside resort near Sousse, had inflicted a clear blow to the tourism industry, which had until then been one of the most important economic sectors in the country. .

Already heavily indebted, Tunisia then had to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic which generated a peak in inflation and further dented the state coffers.

Between 2019 and 2021, the country's public debt thus increased by 7.5 billion euros, exceeding 32 billion, or 85.5% of GDP.

>> To read also: Finally overwhelmed by the Covid crisis, Tunisia is appealing for help

The consumer or the debt

For Ali Kooli, Tunisian banker and former Minister of Finance, these successive crises have only accelerated the fall of a system out of breath.

"Unlike many of its neighbors who have long since liberalized their economies, Tunisia has retained very restrictive investment legislation which is detrimental to its growth. At the same time, it controls prices by subsidizing many imported products, such as hydrocarbons , coffee or sugar, but also national sectors such as milk. But this system has reached the breaking point: the State simply no longer has the means to finance these subsidies", he analyzes.

Forced to choose between consumer protection and spending control, the government announced in December a cut in commodity subsidies, at the risk of further fueling high inflation in the country.

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Bankruptcy at the end of the tunnel?

This reduction in subsidies, which should reach 33.1% during the year, is part of a set of measures, integrated into the 2023 finance law, aimed at reducing the deficit.

The Tunisian government hopes that these reforms will allow it to obtain the green light from the IMF for the loan of 1.7 billion euros negotiated in October.

"Tunisia has accumulated such a debt that it is now very difficult for it to borrow from international donors," explains Antoine Basbous, a political scientist specializing in the Arab world.

"The IMF loan is extremely important, not because it would make it possible to redress the country's situation, but because it conditions access to international aid".

While Tunis has managed to obtain an agreement in principle for the release of funds, the IMF has however postponed the final examination of the file, scheduled for December, claiming to want to give the government more time to finalize its reform programme.

On Saturday, the US agency Moody's downgraded the rating of Tunisia's long-term debt by another notch, judging the risk of default on payment "higher".

"It seems obvious that the political trajectory of Tunisia increases the mistrust of international donors", analyzes Antoine Basbous.

“Rather than putting in place emergency economic measures, Kaïs Saïed embarked on an overhaul of institutions to establish an ultra-presidentialist system. The result is massive abstention in the elections and a country on the verge of insolvency. It's a risky bet. In this context, there is no guarantee that the IMF will save Tunisia from bankruptcy."

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