The Federal Reserve Board, which is the central bank of the United States, will hold a meeting to decide monetary policy for two days from the 31st.
Markets are increasingly betting that the Fed will scale back its interest rate hike to 0.25%, as inflation tends to subside.
Although the United States was hit by record inflation last year, the rate of increase in the consumer price index fell below the previous month for the sixth consecutive month until last month, reaching the 6% level for the first time in about a year.
Under these circumstances, the FRB will hold a meeting to decide monetary policy on the 31st and February 1st of this month.
Last year, the Fed decided to raise interest rates by 0.75%, an unusually high level, four times in a row until the November meeting.
Markets are increasingly betting that the Fed will cut its rate hike to 0.25% this time around, as inflation tends to subside.
On the other hand, some point out that the employment situation is solid and that wages, a factor that causes inflation, are still rising, which is a cause for concern.
FRB Chairman Powell has repeatedly explained that it is important to raise the policy interest rate as high as possible and how long it will be maintained, and his remarks at the post-meeting press conference will attract attention. .
What are your predictions for future Fed rate hikes?
The CME Group in the United States, which owns the world's largest commodity exchange, has released data that predicts the probability of the Fed's interest rate hike based on the movement of interest rate futures trading.
According to this, at the meeting to be held from January 31st at noon on the 29th Japan time, the probability of a 0.25% rate hike is 98.4%, and the probability of a 0.5% rate hike is 1.6%.
If the Fed decides to raise rates by 0.25%, as most market expectations are, the policy rate will range from 4.5% to 4.75%.
And if the Fed decides to raise rates by 0.25% at this meeting, at its next meeting scheduled for March 21-22, there is an 84.2% chance of a 0.25% hike and a 15.5% chance of a hold. It is expected.
Furthermore, if the Fed decides to raise rates by 0.25% at its March meeting, there is a 56.9% chance of keeping rates unchanged at its scheduled May meeting.