Occupied Jerusalem -

amid the escalation of internal conflicts in Israeli society, the political, social and religious fragmentation that accompanies the new Israeli government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, and the widening circle of popular protests;

The occupation government is trying to escape from its crisis by escalating with the Palestinians, amid apprehension of the outbreak of an armed uprising igniting from Nablus and Jenin (the northern occupied West Bank).

In a situation that reflects the intensification of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the growing fears of the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, the deterioration of the security situation, and Tel Aviv's attempts to export its internal crises represented in extremism and political division;

The far-right government escalated its aggression against the Palestinians, especially in the refugee camps in the northern West Bank. This Thursday morning, it carried out a massacre in the Jenin camp.

As a result, 9 were killed and 20 others were wounded.

The Israeli security establishment expresses its concern about the gradual loss of control of the authority in the West Bank and the governmental vacuum, especially in the Jenin governorate, in the absence of a political horizon, which is likely to escalate armed resistance and the formation of more Palestinian factions and brigades.

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The destruction left by the occupation after storming the Jenin camp (Reuters)

West Bank and Gaza

In light of the security developments and complications in the political scene, Israeli military and security affairs expert Rafie Abu Tarif believes that the escalation in the West Bank reflects the political and security view of the new government in dealing with the Palestinians, from the view that the Palestinian Authority has ended its role and its presence in the West Bank has become a strategic threat to Israel.

In his assessment of the escalation in the West Bank, especially in Jenin and its camp, and Nablus and its camps;

Abu Tarif explained to Al-Jazeera Net that this reflects the scenario towards which the new Israeli government is pushing to dismantle the authority and restore military control over all areas of the West Bank, which is another aspect of the annexation.

The military expert attributed the occupation government's approach and its hostile dealings with the Palestinians to its attempt to create a state of illusory and fabricated security in the Israeli society, which no longer feels safe and secure, pointing out that the current escalation could slip into unconventional military operations and a complete invasion of the West Bank and the areas under the control of the Authority. Palestinian too.

As for the security escalation and the daily incursions and clashes in the West Bank, Abu Tarif believes that this is an attempt to export the internal crisis in Israel, which is witnessing divisions and a state of societal, political and religious extremism, amid the escalation of protests and demonstrations in Israeli cities against the Netanyahu government, which are concerns that may cause the outbreak of a "war". the brothers".

In view of this, the military expert does not rule out that Israel would carry out a provocative operation in the West Bank with the aim of dragging the Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip into a limited military confrontation, bearing in mind that Israel is not interested in an all-out war, because the goal is to export internal crises and relieve the pressure of internal fighting and turn it towards the Palestinian people, who are considered "the enemy." subscriber".

An ambulance transports wounded people after the occupation stormed the Jenin camp (Reuters)

crises and scenarios

In a position assessment issued by the Center for National Security Research at Tel Aviv University - titled "Geopolitical shocks facing worsening internal challenges" - he reviewed the strategic assessment for 2023, the intensification of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in light of the internal Israeli crises and the future of the Palestinian Authority.

In the Palestinian arena, Israeli estimates indicate that the Palestinian Authority continues to lose control of the land, especially in the northern West Bank, at a time when the internal Palestinian competition over the succession of the President of the Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, is raging.

The strategic estimates of the National Security Research Center do not rule out the outbreak of a large-scale conflict with the Palestinians, whether in the West Bank or even on the Gaza Strip front, in light of the strengthening and expansion of the settlement project in the West Bank, which destroys the idea of ​​a two-state solution.

In the absence of future options for any political settlement with the Palestinians, and the creation of a reality that establishes the "apartheid" and "one-state" system, this will be a challenge to Israel's identity as a Jewish and democratic state.

Strategic estimates indicate that the conflict with the Palestinians will intensify and the challenges will exacerbate, especially in light of a government that is pushing for the annexation of the West Bank.

The National Security Research Center believes that Israeli society has become more divided and fragmented than ever, at the end of 4 years of political instability, governance crisis, incitement and mutual delegitimization.

Palestinian resistance fighters block the roads in front of the occupation vehicles in Jenin camp (Reuters)

Threats and challenges

Question marks and axes about the internal crises of the Netanyahu government and the intertwining of Israeli issues with the Palestinian arena, from the perspective of the 2023 strategic assessment, constitute a threat to Israeli national security.

Because of the possibility of the outbreak of Operation "Guardian of the Walls 2" and Operation "Defensive Wall 2", which broke out 20 years ago from Jenin and its camp.

And the Israeli researcher in strategic affairs, Noa Schusterman - who occupies the position of director of the Israeli-Palestinian Relations Program at the Center for Security Research - believes that the various Palestinian arenas - whether in the West Bank, Jerusalem, Gaza, and perhaps the interior - have become more unified, which puts the Israeli establishment in front of great challenges. to face possible scenarios.

Schusterman reviewed this year's scenarios for Al-Jazeera Net, in light of the escalation of tension and confrontations in the West Bank, with the new Yemeni government, and suggested that the most prominent scenario is chaos and the escalating rise in operations and confrontations in the West Bank.

Which will increase the popular protests that may lead to an armed uprising.

It believes that Israel faces the challenges and concerns of the Palestinian cause, whether in the northern West Bank, Jenin, Jerusalem, or even the Gaza Strip, a reality that requires Israel to deal simultaneously with two dangerous paths that feed each other.

It does not rule out that the path of intensifying conflict and confrontations will lead to the transformation of popular protests in the West Bank into an armed uprising, and in the long run, the Netanyahu government's policy could lead to a "one-state" reality, which is the path that will prevent the Palestinians from separating in the future.