Berlin and Washington have given their agreement in principle.
Now remains the practical work: how to get the German and American heavy armored vehicles to the Ukrainian front as quickly and safely as possible.
Because Volodymyr Zelenski recalled it in his speech of January 25: Ukraine needs these reinforcements without delay to hope to counter the next Russian offensive, expected this spring.
Germany has mentioned a delivery window between "end of March and beginning of April".
So far, Western countries have managed to deliver military equipment worth tens of billions of dollars without a hitch.
"Russia has officially never managed to hit an arms convoy in what military experts describe as a cat-and-mouse game that Ukraine is winning," the New York Times said. , in an article published Wednesday, January 25.
Machines that hardly go unnoticed
But the Leopard 2 tanks promised by Germany, just like the American Abrams, have been designated as priority targets for Moscow to destroy.
"They will burn," warned Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman.
These imposing machines, weighing more than 55 tons, can hardly go unnoticed on Ukrainian roads.
"It's a real logistical challenge," admits Jeff Hawn, a specialist in Russian military issues and an outside consultant for the New Lines Institute, an American geopolitical research center.
The details of such an operation are among "the best kept secrets of this war", assures the New York Times.
We must first decide on a place of delivery of these armored vehicles.
"For security reasons, the Ukrainian handover will probably take place in a European country that is a member of NATO and neighboring Ukraine [Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, editor's note]", assures Jeff Hawn .
The Americans or the Germans will certainly not want to take the risk of exposing their men to a possible Russian strike on Ukrainian territory.
Once the Ukrainian army has taken possession of the Leopard 2 and Abrams, they will therefore have to manage on their own to get these tanks to the front lines.
And with state-of-the-art tanks, it's not just about getting behind the wheel and driving to Donbass.
"The German Leopard 2s are a little easier to handle and maintain because they are closer in design to those that the Ukrainians have already used. But with the Abrams tanks, it's a completely new electronic environment, with a very particular and specific fuel", summarizes Jeff Hawn.
The convoys will therefore not only consist of armored vehicles.
To this must be added spare parts in the event of technical breakdowns, fuel stocks and specially trained personnel to maintain and handle these war machines on a daily basis.
A hitch that can quickly take up a lot of space and be more easily spotted by the Russians.
Because of this, the Ukrainians are unlikely to send all the heavy tanks they are supposed to receive - 31 Abrams tanks and 14 Leopard 2s - at once to the front line.
"They will make groups of four to six tanks," said Jeff Hawn.
Railway or road network?
Then you have to choose a way to send them.
One hell of a headache.
“The railway may seem attractive, but the Russians know the Ukrainian rail network well and could scrutinize it closely if they really want to destroy these tanks”, assures Huseyn Aliyev, specialist in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict at the University of Glasgow. .
The road is not a much more attractive alternative.
Some lanes simply won't support the weight of these armored vehicles.
For example, "there are bridges in Ukraine that have been built to support the maximum weight of a Soviet tank, which is lighter than these new Western models," says Huseyn Aliyev.
The solution would therefore probably be to go by the best maintained main roads, which are also the most exposed.
Not to mention that it would be necessary to mobilize platform trucks to transport them because "we are not going to roll these armored vehicles to preserve as much as possible the fuel specific to the tanks", affirms Jeff Hawn.
In these circumstances, the specialists interviewed estimate that there will probably be a mixture of means of transport.
A bit of train, then road and/or vice versa… but “always at night and with the best camouflage possible”, emphasizes Huseyn Aliyev.
The route taken will therefore be drawn up with the greatest care.
And it is possible that the Ukrainians will establish several and alternate as and when the platoons of armored vehicles are sent.
In time for the spring offensive?
It is therefore a "very gradual process which will take a long time", recognizes Jeff Hawn.
A resource of which Ukraine has, however, only a limited quantity.
In the Abrams' case, that transfer to Ukraine "may take more than a year," according to US military officials interviewed by The New York Times.
But these were tanks sent from the United States.
Fortunately for kyiv, "some of these tanks are stored in stocks in Europe, as in Germany", specifies Jeff Hawn.
In addition, one must take into account the training time for these very advanced American tanks, which can last for months.
But Huseyn Aliyev is convinced that "the public announcement of the sending of armored vehicles only confirms a decision which was taken behind the scenes upstream. The training of Ukrainians for the use of the Leopards and Abrams must have already started there several months ago."
What guarantee that the military equipment arrives in time to participate in the defense against the probable spring offensive of the Russian army?
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