Gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 2.1% for the whole of 2022, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

This is a slower pace compared to 2021, a vintage that had experienced the strongest growth since 1984: 5.9%.

The previous year had seen the largest decline in GDP since 1946 (-3.5%) and two months of recession due to Covid-19.

President Joe Biden, who should soon announce whether he is seeking a second term in the White House, welcomed this "very good news concerning the American economy", during a trip to Springfield (Virginia), in the large suburbs of Washington, seeing in it "the proof that (his) economic plan (...) really works".

"Last summer, a lot of analysts on Wall Street were saying that by the end of the year there would be a recession. They've been telling me since I was elected that there will be a recession," he quipped.

American growth © Ayoub SIMOUR, Sylvie HUSSON, Laurence SAUBADU / AFP

In the fourth quarter alone, growth was 2.9% at an annualized rate, a measure favored by the United States, which compares GDP to that of the previous quarter and then projects the evolution over the entire year at this rate.

It is 0.7% comparing the quarter to the previous one, as do other advanced economies.

Consumption, the pillar of the economy

GDP is "stronger than expected," said Rubeela Farooqi, chief economist for HFE.

However, "most of the progress occurred at the start of the quarter and the core of the economy was weak", and "a repeat performance in early 2023 is unlikely", commented Oren Klachkin, economist for Oxford Economics.

The year 2022 had however started badly, with two quarters of decline in GDP (-1.6% in the first quarter, then -0.6% in the second), before the return to growth in the third quarter (+3.2 %).

Consumption, the engine of the American economy, remained solid at the end of 2022 despite the sticks that the American central bank (Fed) put in its wheels, thus hoping to slow down inflation that is far too high.

While Americans largely rely on credit for their purchases, the institution raises its key rate, pushing commercial banks to raise interest rates.

A woman in the streets of Birmingham (Michigan) on December 23, 2022 © JEFF KOWALSKY / AFP

This erodes the purchasing power of consumers, which was already suffering from inflation.

And for 2023, growth or recession?

"At the moment, the economic indicators are pointing more towards a recession, which would have started at the turn of the year, December-January," Gregory Daco, chief economist for EY Parthenon, told AFP.

But, he qualified, even if the unemployment rate - from 3.5% in December - increases a little, it could remain "historically low".

"It is the key element that supports consumption", itself "pillar of the American economy", he added.

"Rampart"

But, even if the American economy continues to grow in 2023, the latter could be so weak "that you will have to squint to say if it is a recession or not", around 1% for the 'year.

Only one body is authorized in the United States to determine the periods of recession: the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

But its announcements are published with several months of delay.

5th Avenue in New York, December 21, 2022 © Ed JONES / AFP

And another threat is now added: the debt ceiling, reached last week.

Without an agreement in Congress, the United States could eventually find itself in a situation of default.

A default "would be an unprecedented economic disaster," said Democrat elected Brendan Boyle, a member of the House Budget Committee, in a statement.

© 2023 AFP