[Expert Q&A] Supplying tanks to Ukraine: What are the objectives of the West and Russia's response?

As next month marks one year since Russia's military invasion of Ukraine, Western countries such as the United States and Germany are starting to consider providing tanks to Ukraine.

Why donate?

What will be the impact on the future war situation?

We asked an expert.

We asked Shinji Hyodo, director of the National Institute for Defense Policy Research, who is familiar with security, about the announcement of the supply of main battle tanks by Germany and the United States over the situation in Ukraine.

Q. What are the characteristics of the tanks provided?

A. German-made "Leopard 2" is a high-performance tank designed and manufactured to compete with tanks made in the former Soviet Union, with attack power, mobility, and protection power. It will become an extremely important tank for Ukraine in battle.

About 15 countries, including Europe and Canada, use a total of 2,000 cars, so it is possible to provide a certain amount.

It also has versatility, so it has the advantage of being easy to train and maintain soldiers.

This time, the United States also announced the provision of its own tank "Abrams", but compared to "Abrams" there is also a feature that refueling and maintenance are easy and easy to handle.

Q. Why did you decide to provide tanks?

A. The current war situation continues to be a back-and-forth battle, but as a whole there is a stalemate, and there are concerns that the battle will be prolonged.

If the stalemate continues, the number of casualties will continue to increase, so Western countries need to provide even more offensive weapons to bring the war to an early conclusion rather than prolonging the war. Was it forced?

However, Ukraine insists that without 300 tanks it will not change the course of the war.

Since the number announced by the United States, Great Britain, Germany, etc. has not yet reached 300, how many will be given to Ukraine, including other European countries that have German tanks? Ka becomes a big focus.

Q. When can the Ukrainian army use tanks?

A. Tanks will be transported to Ukraine after repairs and maintenance.

In addition, since soldiers must be trained, it is expected that it will take several months before they can actually be used on the battlefield.

It is expected that the Russian army will launch a large-scale offensive in the spring as well, but whether or not they will be able to make it in time for this timing will be a point of attention in the future.

Q. What impact will the supply of tanks have on the battle situation?

A. Currently, Russia seems to be fighting with the top priority of complete control of the two eastern provinces of Ukraine, and the Eastern Front is a battle of attrition for both armies.

If the Ukrainian-provided tanks are used in the East, they may be worn out by the intense Russian attacks.

For this reason, it is currently expected that the Ukrainian side will show moves to recapture using tanks in the southern part of the country, where attacks by the Russian army are relatively weak.

Q. What is Russia's response?

A. While determining how many tanks will be deployed on the battlefield and when, we will begin to consider when and where to carry out a large-scale offensive.

It seems that they are becoming more wary of the introduction of state-of-the-art Western-made tanks into the battlefield. Since it is believed that it will be transported from there to Ukraine by rail, etc., it is possible that there will be an attack there.

Q. What is the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons?

A. There is a need to be cautious about the use of nuclear weapons to some extent, but the large-scale offensive that Russia is about to launch is expected to be carried out when the partial mobilization of 300,000 men is completed.

For the time being, rather than immediately using nuclear weapons, it seems that the US is trying to turn the tide of the war by using conventional forces, and to achieve complete control of the two eastern states.

If Russia is unable to turn the tide of the war even with a large-scale offensive, and if the Ukrainian side, including the Donbass region in the south and the Crimea peninsula, moves to recapture it, the possibility of using nuclear weapons will rise relatively. Yes, but I don't see any indication that Russia will use nuclear weapons anytime soon.