The American website "The Diplomat" published a report in which it talked about the reasons that prevent China from invading Taiwan in the near future.
He said it is undeniable that the unification of Taiwan with mainland China was an integral part of Chinese President Xi Jinping's goal of "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."
However, some scholars maintain that Beijing has no intention of forcing unification now or anytime soon.
Xi (General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party) had confirmed - at the Twentieth Party Congress in October 2022 - that Beijing "will not give up the use of force" to unify Taiwan "with the People's Republic of China."
And it was stated in the report of the American site - written by Hemant Adlakha, a professor of Chinese language at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi - that China will choose instead to put pressure on Taiwan using a set of methods to encourage unification, and may launch more preferential policies, according to Professor Ding Yuwen, a member of the Council Administration of the China Reform and Development Center.
Ding added that Beijing would try to initiate discussion of the "one country, two systems" framework with the ruling and opposition parties in Taiwan.
restrictions
The Diplomat reviews 10 practical constraints that make it highly unlikely that China will resort to the use of force, the first of which is that the war is costly to both the Chinese and Taiwanese sides.
The second is the decline of China's export markets in Europe and the United States, which is China's main immediate priority, in addition to the enormous military power possessed by Taiwan.
As for the third obstacle, Xi's goal of strengthening the power base within the party is far from being achieved, while the site believes that the fourth reason is that although the Chinese leader will support launching a lightning war on Taiwan at a low cost, that war may spin out of his control. .
The site indicates that the fifth obstacle is that Taiwan cannot be compared to Ukraine in terms of military strength, as it is armed with the latest weapons, unlike Ukraine, which contains fertile plains and plateaus, and consists of more than 100 islands.
The sixth of these restrictions lies in the possible involvement of the United States in the Sino-Taiwanese conflict.
The seventh is the Japanese dimension, as the government in Tokyo reaffirmed that it will help Taiwan defend its territory.
The eighth constraint that will prevent Beijing from resorting to force is that President Xi is well aware of the West's solidarity with Ukraine in its crisis, and therefore his endeavor to unify Taiwan with his country will endanger his relations with the European Union - which is China's main trading partner - the United States and Japan.
And ninth, that Taiwan - which may not have been included in the series of multilateral US security and trade initiatives - is seen as an integral part of the defense mechanisms stipulated by the quadruple security dialogue between America, Japan, Australia and India, also known as "Quad" ( Quad) and the tripartite security agreement that includes Australia, Britain and America known as "AUKUAS".
He added that it is very unlikely that Beijing will resort to a measure that would force countries in the Southeast Asian region to consider China an enemy.