"30% of parcels do not arrive" Will the prediction of impact come true?

January 24, 18:30

“At this rate, by 2030, 35% of parcels may not be transportable,”

a private think tank published a shocking prediction this month.

What the hell is that?

I think there are many people who feel that way, but the background is the serious labor shortage, which is said to be the "2024 problem" in the logistics industry.

("2024 Problem" coverage team Economics Department reporter Akira Taruno Social Affairs Department reporter Takehiro Kamino)

What is the “2024 Problem”?

The “2024 problem” in the logistics industry.

The reason for this is the tightening of overtime regulations for truck drivers, which will come into effect from April next year.

In addition to regulating overtime work to 960 hours a year, the annual mandatory working hours set by the government as a rule will be revised to 3,300 hours.

Until now, there were no regulations on overtime work, and the annual commitment was 3,516 hours.

Against this backdrop, according to a survey by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the working hours of truck drivers are 20% longer than the average for all industries.

In addition, in the last fiscal year and in fiscal 2021, 56 cases of industrial accidents due to brain and heart diseases were recognized in the "road freight transportation industry" such as truck drivers, accounting for more than 30% of the total. It was.

The tightening of regulations is expected to lead to improvements in the working environment for truck drivers.

Long-distance transport becomes impossible

On the other hand, there are new concerns on the ground.

Decrease in transport volume.

How will things actually change?

A transportation company in Saitama Prefecture responded to the interview, saying, "I want you to know the actual situation."

The company, which employs about 90 people, is said to be forced to review its operations due to stricter regulations on overtime work.

One of them is that we are forced to reduce long-distance transportation jobs.

In the case of transportation between Tokyo and Osaka, which accounts for half of this company's sales, it departs from a warehouse in Chiba Prefecture in the evening, and the work, including loading and unloading, is completed at the destination, Osaka, in the morning of the next day. Become.

Currently, one driver is in charge, but when new regulations are introduced, it is said that one driver will not be able to handle it, and it will be necessary for a replacement driver to ride with him.

As a company, we would like to secure the number of drivers, but it is difficult to hire new drivers as the industry as a whole is still facing a serious labor shortage.

For this reason, we plan to reduce orders for long-distance transportation and instead increase medium-distance transportation to Nagoya and short-distance transportation within the Tokyo metropolitan area. .

Drivers are also concerned.

That's the loss of income.

The person who told me the story is a truck driver in his twenties.

He was in charge of long-distance transportation to Osaka, and although he was in charge of nearly 300 hours a month, he was attracted to the fact that he could earn as much as he worked.

Driver in his 20s

“I have to drive until the morning, so the work itself is tough, but I chose this job knowing that it would be difficult. Those are more troublesome."

The company expects the salaries of drivers in charge of long-distance transportation to decrease by about 50,000 yen a month from April next year, due to the reduction in working hours.

The management of this company points out that the understanding of shippers and consumers is essential to maintaining a stable distribution network.

President Takeuchi

: “If the transportation distance is shortened, the salary of the employees will be reduced accordingly, so I am worried that the drivers will leave. We want both shippers and consumers to understand that drivers are the reason they can send packages for delivery and purchase items at stores. I want you to know more."

More than 30% of packages cannot be transported!

?

What is the future of the logistics industry?

Nomura Research Institute released new estimates this month.

According to it, if measures are not taken as they are, 28% of cargo will not be able to be transported by 2025, and 35% by 2030.

Taking into account the “2024 problem,” we calculated the supply-demand gap based on population estimates and demand forecasts for each region.

The percentage for each region is as follows.

Ratio of drivers to demand (2030)

Hokkaido -39%

Tohoku -41%

Kanto -34%

Hokuriku Shinetsu -37%

Chubu -36%

Kinki -36%

Chugoku -37%

Shikoku -40%

Kyushu -39%

Okinawa -23%

Drivers do not have to wait Shippers also rush to take measures

Due to a sense of crisis about the current situation, shippers are also moving to take action.

It is a chain that operates approximately 1,300 stores, including supermarkets, mainly in the Chubu region.

Products gathered from all over the country are sorted at distribution centers in each region and delivered to each store.

In the past, distribution centers sometimes forced drivers to wait for long periods of time.

Therefore, this company introduced a truck reservation system.

We have changed the system so that it is possible to grasp which contractor will unload at what time with a smartphone, and the driver can reserve a time slot in advance.

As a result, at one of the distribution centers in Gifu Prefecture, the waiting time for drivers, which used to be an average of one and a half hours, has been reduced to about 20 minutes.

Efforts have also begun to use trucks more efficiently.

In the past, trucks often returned empty to distribution centers after delivering products to stores.

Therefore, when I returned to the center, I decided to have my luggage kept and delivered to nearby business partners.

The aim is to increase the sales per driver by reducing the time spent running empty and loading as much luggage as possible.

Acting President Koike

: "If work style reforms overlap with the declining population and fewer drivers, there is no doubt that we will not be able to transport what we have been able to transport, and we will not be able to maintain our system. To maintain service levels. And we have to think seriously about how we can improve what we have now.”

The government is also serious about “considering responses to shippers”

In the future, a wide range of companies will likely be required to respond in this way to shippers.

In September last year, the country set up a study group made up of experts, and presented an "interim summary proposal" at the meeting on the 17th of this month.

The point is that we asked companies on the shipper side to take action as well.

In this, we recommended that shippers should also consider "measures to encourage planned improvements" such as reducing waiting time and delivery frequency at delivery destinations.

Specifically, the law stipulates that shippers must formulate logistics improvement plans and report them to the government.

In addition, it is borne in mind that the government will make recommendations if the efforts fall far short of the plan.

In the industry, it is said that truck drivers are forced to wait for a long time to bring in their cargo, or are asked to unload work.

For this reason, we stepped in to the need for efforts not only by shipping companies but also by shippers.

The government plans to consider revising related laws in the future, based on discussions at the review committee.

Professor Nemoto, Chairman of the Investigative Committee

“There is an atmosphere in the logistics industry where it is difficult for small and medium-sized shipping companies to refuse requests from shippers, and it is necessary to involve shippers in taking measures. Only one year remains until the 2024 problem. Instead, we must use this compilation as an opportunity to change the logistics industry.”

what we can do

The 2024 problem is not just an issue for business operators.

According to a survey by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, the number of parcels delivered by parcel delivery services continues to increase due to factors such as the spread of online shopping, surpassing 4 billion parcels for the first time in fiscal 2016.

Last year and 2021, the number reached 4.9 billion.

On the other hand, the percentage of parcels that are redelivered remains high, and according to a survey last October, the redelivery rate was 11.8%, meaning that 1 out of 10 parcels is not delivered in one delivery. .

We consumers can also cooperate by reducing the number of redeliveries.

If you are unable to receive the parcel at home due to a sudden schedule, you can reduce redeliveries by changing the delivery date and time in advance using the smartphone app or on the web.

Recently, there has also been an increase in the use of okihai (delivery), where parcels are delivered to a delivery box set up at the front door.

Furthermore, not selecting "same day delivery" or "next day delivery" for items that are not urgent will also reduce the burden on the driver.

The demand for "delivery of goods" is increasing steadily, even if various services such as shopping are completed online.

What should we do to prevent the situation where "30% of parcels do not arrive" becomes a reality?

Rather than leaving it up to business operators, it is necessary for each consumer to think about it.

Economics Department Reporter

Akira Taruno

Joined in 2012 After working at Fukushima Broadcasting Station, currently

in charge of Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

since 2020

Reporter

Takehiro Shino

Joined in 2012 Worked

at Kushiro Broadcasting Station, Okinawa Broadcasting Station, International Department before current position