"Sweden's horror scenario can become reality"

Tuesday was another turbulent day in the Swedish NATO process after a statement by Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto.

Haavisto stated for Yle that it may be relevant for Finland to go first into NATO in view of Turkish opposition to Swedish membership.

At a press conference in the morning, however, Haavisto stressed that it is still his ambition that Sweden and Finland become members at the same time, but that Finland wants the membership to be ready for the NATO summit in Vilnius at the beginning of June.

It can be interpreted as Finland being prepared to join at the same time as Sweden if the membership issue for both countries can be resolved at the summit in Vilnius.

Presidential election May 14

No one expects any announcement from Turkey before May 14, when the Turkish presidential election will be held.

Immediately after the election, however, there is a "window" when the Turkish parliament could formally approve Sweden's and Finland's membership applications.

Should there be no Turkish support for Swedish NATO membership in this situation, Pekka Haavisto's statements can be interpreted as Finland considering going ahead.

In that case, Sweden's horror scenario becomes reality: A limbo situation where Sweden has renounced its freedom of alliance, but is formally not covered by NATO's security guarantees.

At the same time, a situation where all countries in northern Europe except Sweden are members of the NATO defense alliance, something that could make Sweden and above all Gotland more vulnerable in the event of a war situation in the Baltic Sea area.

This is also a problem for NATO and NATO's planning.

Sweden's geographical location makes the country an important NATO member.

Via Sweden and Gotland, troops, material and supplies can be brought forward to protect, for example, the Baltic countries against Russian aggression.

NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is therefore not particularly pleased with Pekka Haavisto's statements that Finland could consider joining NATO ahead of Sweden.

Protests have sparked Turkish anger

However, Pekka Haavisto's statements should be interpreted as that in Finland there is a frustration and a growing concern about what has happened in Sweden recently and how it has affected Turkey and the continued NATO process.

It is not least about the Rojava Committees' action where a doll representing President Erdogan was hung upside down outside the city hall in Stockholm, but above all Rasmus Paludan's Koran burning outside the Turkish embassy.

Especially the latter has triggered great Turkish anger and seriously damaged the relationship between Sweden and Turkey.

Sweden cannot count on Turkish support for NATO membership, President Erdogan announced yesterday.

And even if there is a lot of election campaign dynamics behind Erdogan's statement, it is clear that the burning of the Koran has provoked strong reactions not only in Turkey but also in several other Muslim countries.

From the Swedish side, the situation in the NATO process is perceived as serious.

Several important meetings have been postponed after the actions in Stockholm.

When the Turkish elections are completed, however, there is hope that the process can pick up speed again, not least through pressure on Turkey from other NATO countries that want Sweden and Finland to become members.