Turkish President and AKP leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called for the parliamentary and presidential elections to be brought forward by a month to May 14.

He had agreed on this with the chairman of the right-wing MHP, Devlet Bahceli, Erdogan said in a video distributed by the Presidential Office.

The elections should have taken place by June 18 at the latest.

Rainer Herman

Editor in Politics.

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May 14 is a symbolic date.

On May 14, 1950, after the introduction of the multi-party system, the first free elections took place.

In order for the elections to take place on May 14th, the High Electoral Council must announce the election date by March 10th at the latest.

Then the election campaign begins.

It is still unclear against whom Erdogan will run in the presidential election.

Six opposition parties that have formed an alliance want to announce their joint candidate in February.

The likely candidates are the leader of the largest opposition party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, or the Mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu.

In December, however, Imamoglu was sentenced to prison and a political ban for allegedly insulting officials, which is expected to be confirmed by the Court of Cassation.

Erdogan is catching up in polls

If the pro-Kurdish HDP sticks to its co-chairman Pervin Buldan as the third candidate, the president would presumably only be determined in a runoff election.

It cannot be ruled out that the HDP will withdraw its candidate after negotiations with the Alliance of Six.

Because the chances of beating Erdogan in the first round are considered greater, since he is believed to be able to mobilize in a runoff and get more than 50 percent.

After Erdogan had been well behind his potential challengers in the past two years, current opinion polls point to an open race again.

Erdogan uses his international appearances, such as his mediation between Russia and Ukraine, where Turkey played a role in the grain deal and two prisoner exchanges.

He also gets approval for his confrontational handling of the NATO membership applications from Sweden and Finland.

Previously, the deteriorating economic situation with inflation of over 80 percent and a massive loss of purchasing power had significantly reduced its popularity.

However, it is disputed whether Erdogan will be allowed to stand for another term.

The constitution allows a maximum of two terms for the president, unless the parliament advances the election date with a three-fifths majority, i.e. 360 mandates, and the second term is therefore not considered completed.

To do this, the alliance of AKP and MHP, which has only 335 MPs, would need votes from the opposition, which does not want to agree to the premature dissolution of parliament.

Since Erdogan is more popular than the AKP, the AKP and MHP are not expected to win another majority in parliament, especially as it will be difficult for the MHP to overcome the seven percent threshold.

All opinion polls predict a majority in parliament for the opposition Six Alliance together with the pro-Kurdish HDP.

In this constellation, a president who is also de facto prime minister would have to govern in cohabitation with the opposition.